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Bearing Steel Market will Get Warm around 2012 Spring Festival

Resource from:  CBCC Likes:3037
Jan 04,2012
Summary: Look back to the bearing steel market in December, the price for GCr15 was stable, the overall demand slightly improved. Up to the end of December, the national average price of GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel of 50mm was 5,754 yuan/ton, kept balance compared with the price in last month; the national average price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel of 100mm was 8,093 yuan/ton. The overall bearing steel market in December was well, meanwhile the market gradually got rid of the declining trend. In the second half of this month, the market price slightly increased in Southern regions. It is estimated that bearing steel market will form a relative price bottom due to the holidays in January and February, at the same time, price for some materials which has greatly dropped in the prior period will slightly callback. Firstly、The domestic production situation of bearing steel The domestic production capability of bearing steel crude steel was about 3.177 million tons from January to November in 2011, increased by 6.8% compared with the same period of last year; the output of bearing steel was 2.984 million tons, rose by 7.6% compared with the same period of last year. In November, the output of bearing steel crude steel was 272,000 tons, meanwhile the output of bearing steel was 247,000 tons. Picture One: The national bearing steel (crude steel) production situation from January to November from 2010 to 2011 Data Resource: MRI It is learned from Picture 1 that the output of bearing steel significantly decreased in November 2011, which made the output growth of bearing steel in this year to two digits, thus declining market trend in November created great impact on steel plants, meanwhile the market confidence has been significantly beaten, the market will certainly experienced a consolidation period, while there has more holidays in January and February, so it is the right time indeed. Table One: The national crude steel production situation in bearing steel manufacturers from January to November in 2011 (Unit: ton) From Table One, we can saw that the first three for bearing steel output from January to November in 2011 were Zhongxin Special Steel (Xinye Steel and Xingcheng Special Steel ), Dongbei Speical Steel and Juneng Steel, some steel plants stopped to produce in November. (Sha Steel just counted the yield of Huai Steel) Secondly、Bearing Steel Market Performance in December In the first place, the export volume of bearing steel in November slightly declined According to the data of the domestic ten major bearing steel manufacturing enterprises, the export of bearing steel in this November was 5,878 tons, reduced about 3,049 tons compared with October. The key enterprise for bearing export in November was Xingcheng Special Steel with the volume of 5,625 tons. Picture Two: Bearing steel export situation for the domestic major special steel enterprises from January to November of 2010-2011 Data Resource: MRI In the second place, the bearing steel market continued to drop in December The price of bearing steel kept stable in December with the common market deal conditions. On the other hand, inventory for merchants obviously declined after the delivery at a low price in the prior period, meanwhile high cost of goods also basically digested. Consequently, merchants did not urgently delivery their goods as before, sales price in some individual regions expected to rise while the actual increasing is difficult. The specific condition of bearing steel in the domestic various regions in this month were as follows: Hangzhou Market: the price in this region was stable in December with the better market deal, but the downstream enterprises generally difficult to accept. Up to the end of December, the average transaction price of small size GCr 15 (continuous casting non-annealed steel) was between 5,200 yuan/ton and 5,300 yuan/ton, and the GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was between 7,600 yuan/ton and 7,700 yuan/ton. Luoyang Market: the price in this region was steady with the light market deal. Up to the end of December, the average transaction price of small size GCr 15 (continuous casting non-annealed steel) was between 5,600 yuan/ton and 5,750 yuan/ton, and the GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was between 7,600 yuan/ton and 7,700 yuan/ton. Xi'an Market: the price in this region basically stable, meanwhile the market deal was common. Up to the end of December, the average transaction price of small size GCr 15 (continuous casting non-annealed steel) was not sufficient, and the GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was between 7,700 yuan/ton and 7,800 yuan/ton. Picture Three: Average price trend for the domestic bearing steel in 2011 Data Resource: MRI According to the statistics from Mysteeel.com: up to the end of December, the national average price of GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel of 50mm was 5,754 yuan/ton; the national average price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel of 100mm was 8,093 yuan/ton. Table Two: Sales price summary of bearing steel manufacturers in East China (standard continuous casting non-annealed steel bar ) unit: yuan/ton From Table Two, the bearing steel price in East China stopped to drop in December, and the market inventory declined to some extent, financial pressure released. With the slight rising of quotation, the actual transaction price still maintained the current level, furthermore, the purchasing attitude for downstream enterprises still was not positive. Thirdly、The price of bearing steel for the post market slowly declined 1.In the aspect of raw material, the price for high-chrome in December increased to 8,000 yuan/ton, basically filled the declining gap in the last month, which has reached the level as that in October. The rising price for raw material has not only played a stable role for the current price of bearing steel, but also brought great pressure of production cost for steel plants. Picutre Four: The chart for the average price of domestic high-carbon ferrochrome from 2010 to 2011 Data Resource: MRI 2. As for steel plant, the output for steel plants in November significantly dropped, which made the output increment of bearing steel in this year adjusted below two digits, therefore, production in most of steel plants reduced compared with the same period of last year, especially for Laiwu Steel and other steel plants which did not produce bearing steel in November. Under the price policy in this month, some steel plants made appropriate declining for the delivery price of bearing steel, but it could not reach the current market price. 3. For downstream users, the market demand for bearing steel in this month slightly improved stimulated by the low market price, the national output of rolling bearings in November 2011 was 2.2588817 billion sets, with the growth of 14% compared with the same period of last year. Picture Five: The national output situation of rolling bearing from January to November of 2010-2011 among downstream enterprises 4. For market, the declining trend in November played compression effect for the output in steel plants. With the reduce of shipments in steel plants, the stock resource to the market was controlled to certain extent, merchants were busy to delivery their goods under the guidance of funds returning and other factors, so inventory obviously dropped compared with the prior period. On the other hand, downstream enterprises were attracted by those goods with low price, meanwhile, most of enterprises step up production in order to catch up with the annual production plan, thus the purchasing was quite well. On the whole, the rising price of raw material will bring certain pressure for the cost in steel plants, the declining space for the post delivery price is slim, the compact production in November will ease the stock pressure in the post market, though merchants did not have enough confidence for post market, yet they will appropriately increased purchasing power to ensure the normal production during holidays. Consequently, it is estimated that the bearing steel market will get rid of the declining trend in January and February, bearing increasing is possible if the overall steel market could play a leading role.
(CBCC)
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