The bearing steel market is to extend losses in slower pace in September
Resource from: CBCC Likes:442
Sep 19,2012
Prefatory remark: Once a trend is formed, it is difficult to change in the short term!
Overview: Looking back to the domestic bearing steel market in August, the price of GCr15Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel further declined, and the deal was light. Up to the end of August, the average price of GCr15Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel around China was 5,068 yuan/ton, 339 yuan less per ton compared with the price at the end of previous month; the average price of GCr15Φ100mm continuous casting annealed steel was 7986 yuan/ton, 36 yuan less per ton compared with the end of previous month (some modifications applied to the statistical method).
The bearing steel market continued the sharp decline trend this month. Many steel mills cut the ex-factory price relatively substantially, the overall inventory somewhat increased, and the turnover remained sluggish. As the prices of short-term rebar and other materials hit the historical low point, ores and other raw materials experienced sharp decline in price, and market participants generally felt pessimistic about the market outlook. No sign of change was found in respect of the macroeconomy, nor the favorable policies. The operating rate in the downstream was greatly affected, and the procurement demand was light. It is estimated that the prices in bearing steel market will continue the downside in September, and it will take time for the market to hit its bottom this year.
I. Domestic Output Situation of Bearing Steel
From January to July in 2012, the domestic output of crude steel by major quality special steel producers was about 1.777 million ton, 13.8% down compared with the same period last year; the output of bearing steel of major quality special steel producers was 1.742 million tons, 9.7% down compared with the same period last year.
In July, the domestic output of crude steel and bearing steel was respectively 12,200 tons and 15,600 tons.
Figure 1: Change in Domestic Output of Bearing Steel (crude steel) from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Special Steel Association
Table 1: Domestic Output of Crude Steel by Bearing Steel Manufacturers from January to July in 2012 (Unit: ton)
Seen from Table 1 that the top three for bearing steel output from January to July in 2012 are Zhongxin Special Steel (Xinye Steel and Xingcheng Special Steel), Dongbei Speical Steel and Nanjing Steel, and the rankings of other steel mills bore only small change (for Sha Steel, only the yield of Huai Steel counted, and some modifications are made to the statistical method for calculating Baosteel's output).
II. Performance of Domestic Bearing Steel Market in August:
(i) The export volume of bearing steel from January to July in 2012 continued to fall
According to the statistical data released by the ten major domestic bearing steel manufacturers, the export volume of bearing steel in July was 76,31 tons, 41 declined compared with the same period of last year, and the total export volume from January to July was only 46,511 tons, indicating a big slide.
Figure 2: Bearing Steel Export Situation in Major Domestic Special Steel Enterprises from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: MRI
The prices in bearing steel market fell sharply in August, where traders did poor in transactions and had less shipment, many steel mills cut their prices significantly, but the selling prices were still a little lower than the procument prices in the market. The detailed situations of bearing steel market across the country in August are as follows:
The bearing steel price in Hangzhou market dropped, and the deal was extermely light. Up to the end of August, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,250 to 4,500 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was between 7,500 and 7,600 yuan/ton.
The bearing steel price in Luoyang market declined and the deal was light. Up to the end of August, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,550 to 4,750 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was from 7500 to 7,600 yuan/ton.
The bearing steel market in Xi'an was dominated by weak consolidation and the deal was light. Up to the end of August, the spot goods of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was relatively insufficient, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was around 7,500 yuan/ton.
As for Chongqing and Chengdu markets, prices reached their bottom slightly, and the deal was common. Up to the end of August, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 5650 to 5700 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was between 7,400 and 7,500 yuan/ton.
Figure 3: Average Price Trend of Domestic Bearing Steel from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Mysteel
According to the statistics from Mysteeel.com: up to the end of August, 2012, the average price of GCr15 Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel in China was 5,068 yuan/ton; the average price of GCr15 Φ100mm die-casting annealed steel was 7,986 yuan/ton. (some modifications applied to the statistical method)
Table 2: Summary of Sales Price of Major Bearing Steel Manufacturers in East China (standard continuous casting non-annealed steel bar) Unit: yuan
Table 2 shows that the bearing steel prices in East China sharply declined in August, mainly in the range of 400 yuan/ton. Many traders experienced serious loss, and their attitudes towards the market outlook becmame more pessimistic.
III. The Bearing Steel Market will Experience Vulnerable Consolidation:
1. Raw materials
The high-chrome prices dropped in August, and the quoted price at the end of the month was around 7450 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton down compared with last month.
Recent ore and other raw materials fell faster, the supporting role of the raw materials of the steel city to promote gradually into decline.
Figure 4: Average Price Trend of Domestic High Carbon Ferrochrome from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Mysteel
2. Steel Mills
In early August 2012, the day output of crude steel in large and medium-sized enterprises was 1.6205 million tons, 0.82% increased QoQ, and the average day output of crude steel nationwide was estimated to be 1.9699 million tons, 1.05% increased QoQ. This month, some steel mills cut the ex-factory price of steel, wherein, individual producers slashed the prices. However, they made less reduction in the production of bearing steel. Steel mills mainly had the idea to lower the inventory of raw materials, and felt pessimistic about the market outlook.
3. Steel Market
The pressure on market supply and demand remained unabated, according to the net inventory survey carried out by "My Steel" that up to August 17, 2012 the social inventory of 5 varieties of steel (deformed steel bar, wire rod, hot-rolled coiled sheets, cold-rolled coiled sheets and medium plate) in 26 major markets across the country was 14.792 million tons, 351,000 tons decreased comparied with the previous week, and the steel stocks fell for the fourth consecutive week, wherein, the greatest inventory reduction since June appeared in last week. The total inventory of steel fell to less than 15 million tons for the first time since the end of January.
Compared with the same period last year (2011), the total inventory of steel was 1.058 million tons increased, and the total inventory of deformed steel bar and wire rod 1.374 million tons increased with the amplification falling for four consecutive weeks. The spot market was under huge pressure, traders had less shipment, and the deal was light. The pessimistic market outlook had became one of the main driving force for the current downtrend.
4. Market Outlook
We can see that the recent macroeconomic index was erratic, sometimes good and sometimes bad, and had no impact on the market demand even in good time. In fact, the demands in downstream enterprises appeared quite low. The automotive, appliance stocks were large in a poor purchasing situation, and the performance in the engineering machinery industry was also less than satisfactory. Looking at things holistically, the European Economic Community did not get improved in its performance, and although QE3 has been lauched, which is good, of course, it will take time to benefit the market.
In summary, the bearing steel market is expected to further go down in the vulnerable state on the way top hit its bottom, and the downside will be obvious.
Figure 1: Change in Domestic Output of Bearing Steel (crude steel) from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Special Steel Association
Table 1: Domestic Output of Crude Steel by Bearing Steel Manufacturers from January to July in 2012 (Unit: ton)
Seen from Table 1 that the top three for bearing steel output from January to July in 2012 are Zhongxin Special Steel (Xinye Steel and Xingcheng Special Steel), Dongbei Speical Steel and Nanjing Steel, and the rankings of other steel mills bore only small change (for Sha Steel, only the yield of Huai Steel counted, and some modifications are made to the statistical method for calculating Baosteel's output).
II. Performance of Domestic Bearing Steel Market in August:
(i) The export volume of bearing steel from January to July in 2012 continued to fall
According to the statistical data released by the ten major domestic bearing steel manufacturers, the export volume of bearing steel in July was 76,31 tons, 41 declined compared with the same period of last year, and the total export volume from January to July was only 46,511 tons, indicating a big slide.
Figure 2: Bearing Steel Export Situation in Major Domestic Special Steel Enterprises from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: MRI
The prices in bearing steel market fell sharply in August, where traders did poor in transactions and had less shipment, many steel mills cut their prices significantly, but the selling prices were still a little lower than the procument prices in the market. The detailed situations of bearing steel market across the country in August are as follows:
The bearing steel price in Hangzhou market dropped, and the deal was extermely light. Up to the end of August, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,250 to 4,500 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was between 7,500 and 7,600 yuan/ton.
The bearing steel price in Luoyang market declined and the deal was light. Up to the end of August, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,550 to 4,750 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was from 7500 to 7,600 yuan/ton.
The bearing steel market in Xi'an was dominated by weak consolidation and the deal was light. Up to the end of August, the spot goods of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was relatively insufficient, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was around 7,500 yuan/ton.
As for Chongqing and Chengdu markets, prices reached their bottom slightly, and the deal was common. Up to the end of August, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 5650 to 5700 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was between 7,400 and 7,500 yuan/ton.
Figure 3: Average Price Trend of Domestic Bearing Steel from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Mysteel
According to the statistics from Mysteeel.com: up to the end of August, 2012, the average price of GCr15 Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel in China was 5,068 yuan/ton; the average price of GCr15 Φ100mm die-casting annealed steel was 7,986 yuan/ton. (some modifications applied to the statistical method)
Table 2: Summary of Sales Price of Major Bearing Steel Manufacturers in East China (standard continuous casting non-annealed steel bar) Unit: yuan
Table 2 shows that the bearing steel prices in East China sharply declined in August, mainly in the range of 400 yuan/ton. Many traders experienced serious loss, and their attitudes towards the market outlook becmame more pessimistic.
III. The Bearing Steel Market will Experience Vulnerable Consolidation:
1. Raw materials
The high-chrome prices dropped in August, and the quoted price at the end of the month was around 7450 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton down compared with last month.
Recent ore and other raw materials fell faster, the supporting role of the raw materials of the steel city to promote gradually into decline.
Figure 4: Average Price Trend of Domestic High Carbon Ferrochrome from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Mysteel
2. Steel Mills
In early August 2012, the day output of crude steel in large and medium-sized enterprises was 1.6205 million tons, 0.82% increased QoQ, and the average day output of crude steel nationwide was estimated to be 1.9699 million tons, 1.05% increased QoQ. This month, some steel mills cut the ex-factory price of steel, wherein, individual producers slashed the prices. However, they made less reduction in the production of bearing steel. Steel mills mainly had the idea to lower the inventory of raw materials, and felt pessimistic about the market outlook.
3. Steel Market
The pressure on market supply and demand remained unabated, according to the net inventory survey carried out by "My Steel" that up to August 17, 2012 the social inventory of 5 varieties of steel (deformed steel bar, wire rod, hot-rolled coiled sheets, cold-rolled coiled sheets and medium plate) in 26 major markets across the country was 14.792 million tons, 351,000 tons decreased comparied with the previous week, and the steel stocks fell for the fourth consecutive week, wherein, the greatest inventory reduction since June appeared in last week. The total inventory of steel fell to less than 15 million tons for the first time since the end of January.
Compared with the same period last year (2011), the total inventory of steel was 1.058 million tons increased, and the total inventory of deformed steel bar and wire rod 1.374 million tons increased with the amplification falling for four consecutive weeks. The spot market was under huge pressure, traders had less shipment, and the deal was light. The pessimistic market outlook had became one of the main driving force for the current downtrend.
4. Market Outlook
We can see that the recent macroeconomic index was erratic, sometimes good and sometimes bad, and had no impact on the market demand even in good time. In fact, the demands in downstream enterprises appeared quite low. The automotive, appliance stocks were large in a poor purchasing situation, and the performance in the engineering machinery industry was also less than satisfactory. Looking at things holistically, the European Economic Community did not get improved in its performance, and although QE3 has been lauched, which is good, of course, it will take time to benefit the market.
In summary, the bearing steel market is expected to further go down in the vulnerable state on the way top hit its bottom, and the downside will be obvious.
(CBCC)
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1.The news above mentioned with detailed source are from internet.We are trying our best to assure they are accurate ,timely and safe so as to let bearing users and sellers read more related info.However, it doesn't mean we agree with any point of view referred in above contents and we are not responsible for the authenticity. If you want to publish the news,please note the source and you will be legally responsible for the news published.
2.All news edited and translated by us are specially noted the source"CBCC".
3.For investors,please be cautious for all news.We don't bear any damage brought by late and inaccurate news.
4.If the news we published involves copyright of yours,just let us know.
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