The bearing steel price is to drift down in October
Resource from: CBCC Likes:235
Nov 20,2012
Overview: Looking back to the domestic bearing steel market in September, the price of GCr15Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel went down slowly on the way to its bottom, and the turnover situation was poor. Up to the end of September, the average price of GCr15Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel around China was 4,752 yuan/ton, 316 yuan less per ton compared with the price at the end of previous month; the average price of GCr15Φ100mm continuous casting annealed steel was 7986 yuan/ton,unchanged compared with the end of previous month (some modifications applied to the statistical method).
The bearing steel market in September operated in a falling trend which was obvious during the first half but improved due to the influence of the overall situation of the steel market. As favorable macroscopic policies were launched in in succession, traders gradually changed their market mentality, so the pessimistic mood was not that great. At the end of the month, there were even signs of slight rise in some areas, but the transaction performance was still poor, which prevented the momentum from real expansion. It is expected that bearing steel price is to keep falling to a certain degree in October, and the falling trend is hard to cease.
I. Domestic Output Situation of Bearing Steel
From January to August in 2012, the domestic output of crude steel by major quality special steel producers was about 1.967 million ton, 14.6% down compared with the same period last year; the output of bearing steel of major quality special steel producers was 1.905 million tons, 12.5% down compared with the same period last year. In August, the domestic output of crude steel and bearing steel was respectively 19,000 tons and 16,400 tons.
Figure 1: Change in Domestic Output of Bearing Steel (crude steel) from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Special Steel Association
Table 1: Domestic Output of Crude Steel by Bearing Steel Manufacturers from January to August in 2012 (Unit: ton)
Seen from Table 1 that the top three for bearing steel output from January to August in 2012 are Zhongxin Special Steel (Xinye Steel and Xingcheng Special Steel), Dongbei Speical Steel and Juneng Steel, and the rankings of other steel mills bore only small change (for Sha Steel, only the yield of Huai Steel counted, and some modifications are made to the statistical method for calculating Baosteel's output).
II. Performance of Domestic Bearing Steel Market in September:
(i) The export volume of bearing steel from January to August in 2012 continued to fall
According to the statistical data released by the ten major domestic bearing steel manufacturers, the export volume of bearing steel in August was 85,46 tons, 28.0% declined compared with the same period of last year, and the total export volume from January to July was only 55,057 tons, indicating a big slide.
Figure 2: Bearing Steel Export Situation in Major Domestic Special Steel Enterprises from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: MRI
(ii)The prices in bearing steel market tumble in September
The prices in bearing steel market fell sharply in September, but the market performances in the north and south areas showed some differences. As favorable policies were launched in the northern market, the performance of which was better than that of the southern market. Traders also had the idea to raise price, but the range and duration were not very long. Price adjustment policies launched by steel mills varied in direction, but market participants were mainly pessimistic to the market outlook.
The detailed situations of bearing steel market across the country in September are as follows:
The bearing steel price in Hangzhou market slightly dropped, and the deal was extermely light. Up to the end of September, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,150 to 4,350 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was between 7,500 and 7,600 yuan/ton.
The bearing steel price in Luoyang market fell sharply and the deal was light. Up to the end of September, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,350 to 4,500 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was from 7500 to 7,600 yuan/ton.
The bearing steel market in Xi'an was dominated by weak consolidation and the deal was light. Up to the end of September, the spot goods of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was relatively insufficient, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was around 7,450 yuan/ton.
As for Chongqing and Chengdu markets, prices reached their bottom slightly, and the deal was common. Up to the end of September, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 5050 to 5100 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was around 7,400 yuan/ton.
Figure 3: Average Price Trend of Domestic Bearing Steel from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Mysteel
According to the statistics from Mysteeel.com: up to the end of September, 2012, the average price of GCr15 Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel in China was 4,752 yuan/ton; the average price of GCr15 Φ100mm die-casting annealed steel was 7,986 yuan/ton. (some modifications applied to the statistical method)
Table 2: Summary of Sales Price of Major Bearing Steel Manufacturers in East China (standard continuous casting non-annealed steel bar) Unit: yuan
Table 2 shows that the bearing steel prices in East China sharply declined in September, mainly in the range of 50-100 yuan/ton. The rebound in the end of last month did bring some excitement to the market confidence, but not enough to change the pessimistic expectation of all as the poor market trend failed to be completely changed.
III. The Bearing Steel Market will Experience Vulnerable Consolidation:
1. Raw materials
The high-chrome prices dropped in September, and the quoted price at the end of the month was around 7200 yuan/ton, 250 yuan/ton down compared with last month.
Figure 4: Average Price Trend of Domestic High Carbon Ferrochrome from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Mysteel
2. Steel Mills
According to the latest data realised by China Iron and Steel Association, the daily crude steel production of large and medium-sized enterprises was 1.5227 million tons in the middle ten days of September 2012, down 2.73% QoQ while the estimated average daily production was 1.8565 million tons, down 2.01% QoQ. At present, steel mills loosened reduction in production, and favorable policies also had stimulation effect on the market. Therefore, the steel mills will gradually give up the idea of production cut, and the market supply and demand pressure is to continue.
3. Steel Market
The central bank carried out 290 billion yuan reverse repurchase before the National Day holiday, a new record for single day in history. Wherein, 14 days' period volume was 100 billion yuan, and 28 days' period volume was 190 billion yuan, with the interest rates respectively 3.45% and 3.60%. Although the central bank was meant to iron out the season liquidity, the market supply and demand pressure in fact was not reduced as the finance was still tight. Based on the recently launched policies, we can hope for the best in October from a macroscopic view. In terms of the capital, the government issues debts and encourages private capital investment, which indicates a very good turning point. The economic impact of QE3 our country is positive as a whole, foreign markets will have better performance in the afternoon market, the domestic demand of building materials in October will go up, and large steel mills will not voluntarily cut prices as the operating rate has been guaranteed to certain degree. In general, the bearing steel market performance in October is expected to become better compared with September.
4. Market Outlook
We can see the macroscopic policies failed to induce substantial change to the market environment in short term, which also indicates that the market price trend will not rise all the way. The mentality of the market participants have somewhat improved, but their attitude towards the market outlook was still pessimistic. The bearing steel market performance is hard to turn good at the end of this year, as the downstream demand in the fourth quarter will not go up obviously, and the overall supply and demand pressure remained the same.
In summary, the bearing steel market is expected to further go down in the vulnerable state on the way to hit its bottom, and the downside will be obvious.
Figure 1: Change in Domestic Output of Bearing Steel (crude steel) from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Special Steel Association
Table 1: Domestic Output of Crude Steel by Bearing Steel Manufacturers from January to August in 2012 (Unit: ton)
Seen from Table 1 that the top three for bearing steel output from January to August in 2012 are Zhongxin Special Steel (Xinye Steel and Xingcheng Special Steel), Dongbei Speical Steel and Juneng Steel, and the rankings of other steel mills bore only small change (for Sha Steel, only the yield of Huai Steel counted, and some modifications are made to the statistical method for calculating Baosteel's output).
II. Performance of Domestic Bearing Steel Market in September:
(i) The export volume of bearing steel from January to August in 2012 continued to fall
According to the statistical data released by the ten major domestic bearing steel manufacturers, the export volume of bearing steel in August was 85,46 tons, 28.0% declined compared with the same period of last year, and the total export volume from January to July was only 55,057 tons, indicating a big slide.
Figure 2: Bearing Steel Export Situation in Major Domestic Special Steel Enterprises from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: MRI
(ii)The prices in bearing steel market tumble in September
The prices in bearing steel market fell sharply in September, but the market performances in the north and south areas showed some differences. As favorable policies were launched in the northern market, the performance of which was better than that of the southern market. Traders also had the idea to raise price, but the range and duration were not very long. Price adjustment policies launched by steel mills varied in direction, but market participants were mainly pessimistic to the market outlook.
The detailed situations of bearing steel market across the country in September are as follows:
The bearing steel price in Hangzhou market slightly dropped, and the deal was extermely light. Up to the end of September, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,150 to 4,350 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was between 7,500 and 7,600 yuan/ton.
The bearing steel price in Luoyang market fell sharply and the deal was light. Up to the end of September, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,350 to 4,500 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was from 7500 to 7,600 yuan/ton.
The bearing steel market in Xi'an was dominated by weak consolidation and the deal was light. Up to the end of September, the spot goods of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was relatively insufficient, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was around 7,450 yuan/ton.
As for Chongqing and Chengdu markets, prices reached their bottom slightly, and the deal was common. Up to the end of September, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 5050 to 5100 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was around 7,400 yuan/ton.
Figure 3: Average Price Trend of Domestic Bearing Steel from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Mysteel
According to the statistics from Mysteeel.com: up to the end of September, 2012, the average price of GCr15 Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel in China was 4,752 yuan/ton; the average price of GCr15 Φ100mm die-casting annealed steel was 7,986 yuan/ton. (some modifications applied to the statistical method)
Table 2: Summary of Sales Price of Major Bearing Steel Manufacturers in East China (standard continuous casting non-annealed steel bar) Unit: yuan
Table 2 shows that the bearing steel prices in East China sharply declined in September, mainly in the range of 50-100 yuan/ton. The rebound in the end of last month did bring some excitement to the market confidence, but not enough to change the pessimistic expectation of all as the poor market trend failed to be completely changed.
III. The Bearing Steel Market will Experience Vulnerable Consolidation:
1. Raw materials
The high-chrome prices dropped in September, and the quoted price at the end of the month was around 7200 yuan/ton, 250 yuan/ton down compared with last month.
Figure 4: Average Price Trend of Domestic High Carbon Ferrochrome from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Mysteel
2. Steel Mills
According to the latest data realised by China Iron and Steel Association, the daily crude steel production of large and medium-sized enterprises was 1.5227 million tons in the middle ten days of September 2012, down 2.73% QoQ while the estimated average daily production was 1.8565 million tons, down 2.01% QoQ. At present, steel mills loosened reduction in production, and favorable policies also had stimulation effect on the market. Therefore, the steel mills will gradually give up the idea of production cut, and the market supply and demand pressure is to continue.
3. Steel Market
The central bank carried out 290 billion yuan reverse repurchase before the National Day holiday, a new record for single day in history. Wherein, 14 days' period volume was 100 billion yuan, and 28 days' period volume was 190 billion yuan, with the interest rates respectively 3.45% and 3.60%. Although the central bank was meant to iron out the season liquidity, the market supply and demand pressure in fact was not reduced as the finance was still tight. Based on the recently launched policies, we can hope for the best in October from a macroscopic view. In terms of the capital, the government issues debts and encourages private capital investment, which indicates a very good turning point. The economic impact of QE3 our country is positive as a whole, foreign markets will have better performance in the afternoon market, the domestic demand of building materials in October will go up, and large steel mills will not voluntarily cut prices as the operating rate has been guaranteed to certain degree. In general, the bearing steel market performance in October is expected to become better compared with September.
4. Market Outlook
We can see the macroscopic policies failed to induce substantial change to the market environment in short term, which also indicates that the market price trend will not rise all the way. The mentality of the market participants have somewhat improved, but their attitude towards the market outlook was still pessimistic. The bearing steel market performance is hard to turn good at the end of this year, as the downstream demand in the fourth quarter will not go up obviously, and the overall supply and demand pressure remained the same.
In summary, the bearing steel market is expected to further go down in the vulnerable state on the way to hit its bottom, and the downside will be obvious.
(CBCC)
【CBCC News Statement】
1.The news above mentioned with detailed source are from internet.We are trying our best to assure they are accurate ,timely and safe so as to let bearing users and sellers read more related info.However, it doesn't mean we agree with any point of view referred in above contents and we are not responsible for the authenticity. If you want to publish the news,please note the source and you will be legally responsible for the news published.
2.All news edited and translated by us are specially noted the source"CBCC".
3.For investors,please be cautious for all news.We don't bear any damage brought by late and inaccurate news.
4.If the news we published involves copyright of yours,just let us know.
1.The news above mentioned with detailed source are from internet.We are trying our best to assure they are accurate ,timely and safe so as to let bearing users and sellers read more related info.However, it doesn't mean we agree with any point of view referred in above contents and we are not responsible for the authenticity. If you want to publish the news,please note the source and you will be legally responsible for the news published.
2.All news edited and translated by us are specially noted the source"CBCC".
3.For investors,please be cautious for all news.We don't bear any damage brought by late and inaccurate news.
4.If the news we published involves copyright of yours,just let us know.
Previous Zero-Max Load Adaptors Connect Pump Impellers in Underwater Applications
Next Aug 17 Bearing Steel Price in Different Regions of China
Next Aug 17 Bearing Steel Price in Different Regions of China
BRIEF INTRODUCTION
Cnbearing is the No.1 bearing inquiry system and information service in China, dedicated to helping all bearing users and sellers throughout the world.
Cnbearing is supported by China National Bearing Industry Association, whose operation online is charged by China Bearing Unisun Tech. Co., Ltd.
China Bearing Unisun Tech. Co., Ltd owns all the rights. Since 2000, over 3,000 companies have been registered and enjoyed the company' s complete skillful service, which ranking many aspects in bearing industry at home and abroad with the most authority practical devices in China.
