The bearing steel market is to operate in vulnerable consolidation in November
Resource from: CBCC Likes:257
Nov 30,2012
Overview: Looking back to the domestic bearing steel market in October, the price of GCr15Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel experienced a narrow range of consolidation, and the turnover was commom. Up to the end of October, the average price of GCr15Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel around China was 4,768 yuan/ton, 16 yuan less per ton compared with the price at the end of previous month; the average price of GCr15Φ100mm continuous casting annealed steel was 7986 yuan/ton,unchanged compared with the end of previous month (some modifications applied to the statistical method).
The bearing steel market as a whole operated in the consolidation stated this month, with some improvement in the macroscopic aspect. The prices of futures and building materials remained stable, which provided price support to the bearing steel market. Steel mills reduced the output, so the arrival volume of goods became smaller. Driven by the slight rebound in the overall turnover, the market mentality was somewhat improved compared with the previous month. Traders did not have much goods on hand, so the inventory level was not high. The price is less likely to fall sharply, but the rising power will become weaker. As expected, the bearing steel market is to operated in vulnerable consolidation in November with small range of fluctuations.
I. Domestic Output Situation of Bearing Steel
From January to September in 2012, the domestic output of crude steel by major quality special steel producers was about 2.212 million ton, 17.2% down compared with the same period last year; the output of bearing steel of major quality special steel producers was 2.155 million tons, 14.9% down compared with the same period last year. In September, the domestic output of crude steel and bearing steel was respectively 24,500 tons and 24,900 tons.
Figure 1: Change in Domestic Output of Bearing Steel (crude steel) from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Special Steel Association
Table 1: Domestic Output of Crude Steel by Bearing Steel Manufacturers from January to September in 2012 (Unit: ton)
Seen from Table 1 that the top three for bearing steel output from January to September in 2012 are Zhongxin Special Steel (Xinye Steel and Xingcheng Special Steel), Dongbei Speical Steel and Juneng Steel, and the rankings of other steel mills bore only small change (for Sha Steel, only the yield of Huai Steel is counted; some modifications are made to the statistical method for calculating Baosteel's output, and Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes is listed in rankings for the first time).
II. Performance of Domestic Bearing Steel Market in October:
(i) The export volume of bearing steel from January to September in 2012 continued to fall
According to the statistical data released by the ten major domestic bearing steel manufacturers, the export volume of bearing steel in September was 110,10 tons, 15.0% increased compared with the same period of last year, and the total export volume from January to September was only 66,795 tons, indicating a big slide.
Figure 2: Bearing Steel Export Situation in Major Domestic Special Steel Enterprises from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: MRI
The prices in bearing steel market experienced a narrow range of consolidation in October
The prices in bearing steel market remained stable in October, but the market performances in the north and south areas showed some differences. The prices rebounded slightly in the southern market, and the shipments also got warmer. In the north, the shipments came in waves, with frequent price fluctuations. The detailed situations of bearing steel market across the country in October are as follows:
The bearing steel price in Hangzhou market slightly increased, and the market transactions became better. Up to the end of October, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,150 to 4,400 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was between 7,500 and 7,600 yuan/ton.
The bearing steel price in Luoyang market was stable and the deal was commom. Up to the end of October, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,350 to 4,500 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was from 7500 to 7,600 yuan/ton.
The bearing steel price in Xi'an market was stable and the deal was light. Up to the end of October, the spot goods of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was relatively insufficient, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was around 7,450 yuan/ton.
As for Chongqing and Chengdu markets, the prices remained stable, and the deal was common. Up to the end of October, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 5050 to 5100 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was around 7,400 yuan/ton.
Figure 3: Average Price Trend of Domestic Bearing Steel from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Mysteel
According to the statistics from Mysteeel.com: up to the end of October, 2012, the average price of GCr15 Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel in China was 4,768 yuan/ton; the average price of GCr15 Φ100mm die-casting annealed steel was 7,986 yuan/ton. (some modifications applied to the statistical method)
Table 2: Summary of Sales Price of Major Bearing Steel Manufacturers in East China (standard continuous casting non-annealed steel bar) Unit: yuan
Table 2 shows that the bearing steel prices in East China slightly rebounded in October, mainly in the range of 30 yuan/ton. Traders now had less stock, steel mills also reduced the output, so the arrival volume of goods became smaller, and the market was getting warm. Driven by the slight rebound in the overall turnover, the market mentality was somewhat improved compared with the previous month.
III. The Bearing Steel Market will Experience Vulnerable Consolidation:
1. Raw materials
The high-chrome prices dropped in October, and the quoted price at the end of the month was around 7150 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton down compared with last month.
Figure 4: Average Price Trend of Domestic High Carbon Ferrochrome from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Mysteel
2. Steel Mills
According to the latest data realised by China Iron and Steel Association, the average daily crude steel production was 1,606,100 tons, and the estimated national output is 1,999,200 tons, with an increase of 1.4% and 4.3% respectively compared to early October. The PMI was 50.2% in October, with an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month, falling back to the critical point. Steel mills cut their bearing steel production, which played a good role in mitigation of the pressure on the spot market, and the shipments were also improved. Individual steel mills, such as Dongbei Special Steel, have raised the ex-factory price, so the competition between the buyer and seller is to be continued.
3. Steel Market
The market performance was poor this month. Some steel mills raised the ex-factory price, and traders' shipments experienced a certain growth comapred with last month. Market spot resources were not adequate, the downstream demand was ordinary, and the shipments were stable. Recently, the price of futures has stopped dropping and become warmer, and the shipments of high-line building materials have also been somewhat guaranteed, so the market confidence have been improved. Based on the current situation, the price is likely to fall sharply. The relatively high price level of alloy materials can provide certain support to the market price, and the the ore price shows no sign of big decline.
4. Downstream Market
Automobile: the sales and production of automobiles slipped in September, mainly due to the Diaoyu Islands event and the higher base last year. Construction machinery: the sales of main varieties in September continued the declining trend, and the demand is difficult to be driven by the start and resumption of work in the downstream market in the short term. Home appliances: the sales of three major home appliance (washing machines, refrigerators, air conditioners) continued the negative growth for the sixth consecutive month. Ship building: the three major indexes of the shipbuilding industry continued to fall in the first three quarters.
5. Market Outlook
As the national steady growth policy gradually shows the effectiveness, the domestic steel industry has stabilized and begin to pick up. The index rebounded sharply in October, and reached 50% above the line of ups and downs for the first time since April this year. In terms of the sub-indexes, except the backlog orders index that kept falling, the other sub-indices all experienced full recovery. As the weather turned cold, the demand in the northern market has declined, and traders now tend to transfer the goods to the Southern market. So the pressure of spot resources in the southern market cannot be ignored. Besides, the overall economic environment this year is very poor compared with previous years, and large steel mills and traders all suffer from serious losses. Although the conditions have been improved in the third quarter, the annual report risk will still be a major motivating factor from the view of the whole year. We can see the macroscopic policies failed to induce substantial change to the market environment in short term, which also indicates that the market price trend will not rise all the way. In summary, though the bearing steel market has showed the sign for improvement, the rising conditions are not mature. So the prices will take a repeat trend, and the market will be dominated by the weak consolidation state in the short term.
Figure 1: Change in Domestic Output of Bearing Steel (crude steel) from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Special Steel Association
Table 1: Domestic Output of Crude Steel by Bearing Steel Manufacturers from January to September in 2012 (Unit: ton)
Seen from Table 1 that the top three for bearing steel output from January to September in 2012 are Zhongxin Special Steel (Xinye Steel and Xingcheng Special Steel), Dongbei Speical Steel and Juneng Steel, and the rankings of other steel mills bore only small change (for Sha Steel, only the yield of Huai Steel is counted; some modifications are made to the statistical method for calculating Baosteel's output, and Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes is listed in rankings for the first time).
II. Performance of Domestic Bearing Steel Market in October:
(i) The export volume of bearing steel from January to September in 2012 continued to fall
According to the statistical data released by the ten major domestic bearing steel manufacturers, the export volume of bearing steel in September was 110,10 tons, 15.0% increased compared with the same period of last year, and the total export volume from January to September was only 66,795 tons, indicating a big slide.
Figure 2: Bearing Steel Export Situation in Major Domestic Special Steel Enterprises from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: MRI
The prices in bearing steel market experienced a narrow range of consolidation in October
The prices in bearing steel market remained stable in October, but the market performances in the north and south areas showed some differences. The prices rebounded slightly in the southern market, and the shipments also got warmer. In the north, the shipments came in waves, with frequent price fluctuations. The detailed situations of bearing steel market across the country in October are as follows:
The bearing steel price in Hangzhou market slightly increased, and the market transactions became better. Up to the end of October, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,150 to 4,400 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was between 7,500 and 7,600 yuan/ton.
The bearing steel price in Luoyang market was stable and the deal was commom. Up to the end of October, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,350 to 4,500 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was from 7500 to 7,600 yuan/ton.
The bearing steel price in Xi'an market was stable and the deal was light. Up to the end of October, the spot goods of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was relatively insufficient, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was around 7,450 yuan/ton.
As for Chongqing and Chengdu markets, the prices remained stable, and the deal was common. Up to the end of October, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 5050 to 5100 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was around 7,400 yuan/ton.
Figure 3: Average Price Trend of Domestic Bearing Steel from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Mysteel
According to the statistics from Mysteeel.com: up to the end of October, 2012, the average price of GCr15 Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel in China was 4,768 yuan/ton; the average price of GCr15 Φ100mm die-casting annealed steel was 7,986 yuan/ton. (some modifications applied to the statistical method)
Table 2: Summary of Sales Price of Major Bearing Steel Manufacturers in East China (standard continuous casting non-annealed steel bar) Unit: yuan
Table 2 shows that the bearing steel prices in East China slightly rebounded in October, mainly in the range of 30 yuan/ton. Traders now had less stock, steel mills also reduced the output, so the arrival volume of goods became smaller, and the market was getting warm. Driven by the slight rebound in the overall turnover, the market mentality was somewhat improved compared with the previous month.
III. The Bearing Steel Market will Experience Vulnerable Consolidation:
1. Raw materials
The high-chrome prices dropped in October, and the quoted price at the end of the month was around 7150 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton down compared with last month.
Figure 4: Average Price Trend of Domestic High Carbon Ferrochrome from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Mysteel
2. Steel Mills
According to the latest data realised by China Iron and Steel Association, the average daily crude steel production was 1,606,100 tons, and the estimated national output is 1,999,200 tons, with an increase of 1.4% and 4.3% respectively compared to early October. The PMI was 50.2% in October, with an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month, falling back to the critical point. Steel mills cut their bearing steel production, which played a good role in mitigation of the pressure on the spot market, and the shipments were also improved. Individual steel mills, such as Dongbei Special Steel, have raised the ex-factory price, so the competition between the buyer and seller is to be continued.
3. Steel Market
The market performance was poor this month. Some steel mills raised the ex-factory price, and traders' shipments experienced a certain growth comapred with last month. Market spot resources were not adequate, the downstream demand was ordinary, and the shipments were stable. Recently, the price of futures has stopped dropping and become warmer, and the shipments of high-line building materials have also been somewhat guaranteed, so the market confidence have been improved. Based on the current situation, the price is likely to fall sharply. The relatively high price level of alloy materials can provide certain support to the market price, and the the ore price shows no sign of big decline.
4. Downstream Market
Automobile: the sales and production of automobiles slipped in September, mainly due to the Diaoyu Islands event and the higher base last year. Construction machinery: the sales of main varieties in September continued the declining trend, and the demand is difficult to be driven by the start and resumption of work in the downstream market in the short term. Home appliances: the sales of three major home appliance (washing machines, refrigerators, air conditioners) continued the negative growth for the sixth consecutive month. Ship building: the three major indexes of the shipbuilding industry continued to fall in the first three quarters.
5. Market Outlook
As the national steady growth policy gradually shows the effectiveness, the domestic steel industry has stabilized and begin to pick up. The index rebounded sharply in October, and reached 50% above the line of ups and downs for the first time since April this year. In terms of the sub-indexes, except the backlog orders index that kept falling, the other sub-indices all experienced full recovery. As the weather turned cold, the demand in the northern market has declined, and traders now tend to transfer the goods to the Southern market. So the pressure of spot resources in the southern market cannot be ignored. Besides, the overall economic environment this year is very poor compared with previous years, and large steel mills and traders all suffer from serious losses. Although the conditions have been improved in the third quarter, the annual report risk will still be a major motivating factor from the view of the whole year. We can see the macroscopic policies failed to induce substantial change to the market environment in short term, which also indicates that the market price trend will not rise all the way. In summary, though the bearing steel market has showed the sign for improvement, the rising conditions are not mature. So the prices will take a repeat trend, and the market will be dominated by the weak consolidation state in the short term.
(CBCC)
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1.The news above mentioned with detailed source are from internet.We are trying our best to assure they are accurate ,timely and safe so as to let bearing users and sellers read more related info.However, it doesn't mean we agree with any point of view referred in above contents and we are not responsible for the authenticity. If you want to publish the news,please note the source and you will be legally responsible for the news published.
2.All news edited and translated by us are specially noted the source"CBCC".
3.For investors,please be cautious for all news.We don't bear any damage brought by late and inaccurate news.
4.If the news we published involves copyright of yours,just let us know.
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