The bearing steel market is to rise on a stable basis in January
Resource from: CBCC Likes:264
Jan 28,2013
Overview: Looking back to the domestic bearing steel market in November, the price of GCr15Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel slightly increased, and the turnover was improved. Up to the end of December, the average price of GCr15Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel around China was 4,861 yuan/ton, 51 yuan up per ton compared with the price at the end of previous month; the average price of GCr15Φ100mm continuous casting annealed steel was 8011 yuan/ton, 11 yuan up per ton compared with the price at the end of previous month (some modifications applied to the statistical method).
The bearing steel market continued the slow upward trend in December. The overall market demand was relatively stable, the stock level was lower, and individual materials was slightly out of stock. Although downstream enterprises received less orders, the normal purchase quantity was guaranteed. In the coming lunar year, market participants showed less confidence in the current market performance, but all stocked up for the spring. We can see that the bearing industry gradually improved as whole. Based on the good expectations on the prices of ore and other raw materials in the upstream market, the bearing steel price is more likely to rise than fall, and the market is to remain the consolidation state with certainly room to rise.
I. Domestic Output Situation of Bearing Steel
From January to November in 2012, the domestic output of crude steel by major quality special steel producers was about 2.663 million ton, 15.1% down compared with the same period last year; the output of bearing steel of major quality special steel producers was 2.615 million tons, 12.4 % down compared with the same period last year. In November, the domestic output of crude steel and bearing steel was respectively 23,800 tons and 22,700 tons.
Figure 1: Change in Domestic Output of Bearing Steel (crude steel) from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Special Steel Association
Table 1: Domestic Output of Crude Steel by Bearing Steel Manufacturers from January to November in 2012 (Unit: ton)
Seen from Table 1 that the top three for bearing steel output from January to November in 2012 are Zhongxin Special Steel (Xinye Steel and Xingcheng Special Steel), Dongbei Speical Steel and Juneng Steel, and the rankings of other steel mills bore only small change (for Sha Steel, only the yield of Huai Steel is counted; some modifications are made to the statistical method for calculating Baosteel's output).
II. Performance of Domestic Bearing Steel Market in December:
(i) The export volume of bearing steel from January to November in 2012 slightly fell
According to the statistical data released by the ten major domestic bearing steel manufacturers, the export volume of bearing steel in November increased by 122.32% year on year, and the total export volume from January to October was 85,130 tons.
Figure 2: Bearing Steel Export Situation in Major Domestic Special Steel Enterprises from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: MRI
The prices in bearing steel market experienced a narrow range of consolidation in December
The prices in bearing steel market slightly rose in December, and the overall performance was better. Traders had less stock based on the pre-market pessimistic forecast, but downstream corporates remained stable purchase quantity, which played a good supporting role in the market price. Market participants' confidence has improved, but still hold the wait-and-see attitude to the market outlook.
The detailed situations of bearing steel market across the country in December are as follows:
The bearing steel price in Hangzhou market increased, and the market transactions became better. Up to the end of December, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,350 to 4,650 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was between 7,500 and 7,800 yuan/ton.
The bearing steel price in Luoyang market slightly increased and the deal was commom. Up to the end of December, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,450 to 4,650 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was from 7500 to 7,800 yuan/ton.
The bearing steel price in Xi'an market also slightly increased and the deal was commom. Up to the end of December, the spot goods of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was relatively insufficient, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was around 7,600 yuan/ton.
As for Shenyang market, the prices rose, and the deal was relatively good. Up to the end of November, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4400 to 4500 yuan/ton, and the spot goods of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was insufficient.
Figure 3: Average Price Trend of Domestic Bearing Steel from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Mysteel
According to the statistics from Mysteeel.com: up to the end of December, 2012, the average price of GCr15Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel in China was 4,861 yuan/ton; the average price of GCr15Φ100mm die-casting annealed steel was 8,011 yuan/ton. (some modifications applied to the statistical method)
Table 2: Summary of Sales Price of Major Bearing Steel Manufacturers in East China (standard continuous casting non-annealed steel bar) Unit: yuan
Table 2 shows that the bearing steel prices in East China slightly rebounded in December, mainly in the range of 100-150 yuan/ton. Traders now have less stock, market transactions were mainly in the form of orders with less temporary delivery of goods, and traders were difficult to be satisfied.
III. The Bearing Steel Market is to operate in Vulnerable Consolidation:
1. Raw materials
The high-chrome prices dropped in November, and the quoted price at the end of the month was around 7450 yuan/ton, 250 yuan/ton down compared with last month. With the steel price picking up, the price of iron ore rose correspondingly. Since early September, the prices of grade 63.5% imported iron ore rose from $94 to $137 per ton, showing a 46% increase, and the price of raw materials is expected to rise in January.
Figure 4: Average Price Trend of Domestic High Carbon Ferrochrome from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Mysteel
2. Steel Mills
Major large and medium-sized enterprises realized the average daily production of crude steel of 1.6233 million tons in mid-November, down 2.03% QoQ; the estimated average daily production of crude steel was 1,910,900 tons, down 1.75% QoQ. At the end of the year, all major steel mills raised the production, with the profit space obvious expanded compared with the first quarter, and had no reduction plan next month.
3. Steel Market
The final value of HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) reached new high 51.5 since last 19 months, while the initial value was 50.9, and the finnal value at the end of last month was 50.5. The further rebound of PMI shows that China manufacturing sector keeps expanding, and the domestic economy is to embrace the rebound momentum. According to related data, the social inventory of steel has experienced a year-on-year drop of more than 90 tons to the lowest level over the three years. The inventory level of steel mills has experienced a year-on-year drop of 2.07 million tons, also at a lower level, but the average steel production rose by 270000 tons this month. This series of data indicates that the overall market demand is now going well. Base on the current bearing steel situation that traders have low inventory and downstream enterprises remained relatively stable purchasing quantity, the market environment has been improving slowly, and market participants have more confidence in the maket outlook.
4. Downstream Market
Market participants also have the storing plan in winter, but the temperature reduction came earlier this year, and the Spring Festival is relatively late, so the preparation time is longer, which may not have a direct stimulation to the market. The output of rolling bearing supporting products in the downstream market slightly declined from January to November, but still on the way to recovery.
5. Market Outlook
Based on the current trend, stability will be the main tone of the January market, and the price is more likely to rise than fall if the macro aspects do not change significantly.
Figure 1: Change in Domestic Output of Bearing Steel (crude steel) from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Special Steel Association
Table 1: Domestic Output of Crude Steel by Bearing Steel Manufacturers from January to November in 2012 (Unit: ton)
Seen from Table 1 that the top three for bearing steel output from January to November in 2012 are Zhongxin Special Steel (Xinye Steel and Xingcheng Special Steel), Dongbei Speical Steel and Juneng Steel, and the rankings of other steel mills bore only small change (for Sha Steel, only the yield of Huai Steel is counted; some modifications are made to the statistical method for calculating Baosteel's output).
II. Performance of Domestic Bearing Steel Market in December:
(i) The export volume of bearing steel from January to November in 2012 slightly fell
According to the statistical data released by the ten major domestic bearing steel manufacturers, the export volume of bearing steel in November increased by 122.32% year on year, and the total export volume from January to October was 85,130 tons.
Figure 2: Bearing Steel Export Situation in Major Domestic Special Steel Enterprises from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: MRI
The prices in bearing steel market experienced a narrow range of consolidation in December
The prices in bearing steel market slightly rose in December, and the overall performance was better. Traders had less stock based on the pre-market pessimistic forecast, but downstream corporates remained stable purchase quantity, which played a good supporting role in the market price. Market participants' confidence has improved, but still hold the wait-and-see attitude to the market outlook.
The detailed situations of bearing steel market across the country in December are as follows:
The bearing steel price in Hangzhou market increased, and the market transactions became better. Up to the end of December, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,350 to 4,650 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was between 7,500 and 7,800 yuan/ton.
The bearing steel price in Luoyang market slightly increased and the deal was commom. Up to the end of December, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,450 to 4,650 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was from 7500 to 7,800 yuan/ton.
The bearing steel price in Xi'an market also slightly increased and the deal was commom. Up to the end of December, the spot goods of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was relatively insufficient, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was around 7,600 yuan/ton.
As for Shenyang market, the prices rose, and the deal was relatively good. Up to the end of November, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4400 to 4500 yuan/ton, and the spot goods of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was insufficient.
Figure 3: Average Price Trend of Domestic Bearing Steel from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Mysteel
According to the statistics from Mysteeel.com: up to the end of December, 2012, the average price of GCr15Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel in China was 4,861 yuan/ton; the average price of GCr15Φ100mm die-casting annealed steel was 8,011 yuan/ton. (some modifications applied to the statistical method)
Table 2: Summary of Sales Price of Major Bearing Steel Manufacturers in East China (standard continuous casting non-annealed steel bar) Unit: yuan
Table 2 shows that the bearing steel prices in East China slightly rebounded in December, mainly in the range of 100-150 yuan/ton. Traders now have less stock, market transactions were mainly in the form of orders with less temporary delivery of goods, and traders were difficult to be satisfied.
III. The Bearing Steel Market is to operate in Vulnerable Consolidation:
1. Raw materials
The high-chrome prices dropped in November, and the quoted price at the end of the month was around 7450 yuan/ton, 250 yuan/ton down compared with last month. With the steel price picking up, the price of iron ore rose correspondingly. Since early September, the prices of grade 63.5% imported iron ore rose from $94 to $137 per ton, showing a 46% increase, and the price of raw materials is expected to rise in January.
Figure 4: Average Price Trend of Domestic High Carbon Ferrochrome from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Mysteel
2. Steel Mills
Major large and medium-sized enterprises realized the average daily production of crude steel of 1.6233 million tons in mid-November, down 2.03% QoQ; the estimated average daily production of crude steel was 1,910,900 tons, down 1.75% QoQ. At the end of the year, all major steel mills raised the production, with the profit space obvious expanded compared with the first quarter, and had no reduction plan next month.
3. Steel Market
The final value of HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) reached new high 51.5 since last 19 months, while the initial value was 50.9, and the finnal value at the end of last month was 50.5. The further rebound of PMI shows that China manufacturing sector keeps expanding, and the domestic economy is to embrace the rebound momentum. According to related data, the social inventory of steel has experienced a year-on-year drop of more than 90 tons to the lowest level over the three years. The inventory level of steel mills has experienced a year-on-year drop of 2.07 million tons, also at a lower level, but the average steel production rose by 270000 tons this month. This series of data indicates that the overall market demand is now going well. Base on the current bearing steel situation that traders have low inventory and downstream enterprises remained relatively stable purchasing quantity, the market environment has been improving slowly, and market participants have more confidence in the maket outlook.
4. Downstream Market
Market participants also have the storing plan in winter, but the temperature reduction came earlier this year, and the Spring Festival is relatively late, so the preparation time is longer, which may not have a direct stimulation to the market. The output of rolling bearing supporting products in the downstream market slightly declined from January to November, but still on the way to recovery.
5. Market Outlook
Based on the current trend, stability will be the main tone of the January market, and the price is more likely to rise than fall if the macro aspects do not change significantly.
(CBCC)
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1.The news above mentioned with detailed source are from internet.We are trying our best to assure they are accurate ,timely and safe so as to let bearing users and sellers read more related info.However, it doesn't mean we agree with any point of view referred in above contents and we are not responsible for the authenticity. If you want to publish the news,please note the source and you will be legally responsible for the news published.
2.All news edited and translated by us are specially noted the source"CBCC".
3.For investors,please be cautious for all news.We don't bear any damage brought by late and inaccurate news.
4.If the news we published involves copyright of yours,just let us know.
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