Bearing steel market is to remain stable in February
Resource from: CBCC Likes:252
Feb 28,2013
Overview: Looking back to the domestic bearing steel market in January, the price of GCr15Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel slightly increased, and the turnover was firstly rose and then fell. Up to the end of January, the average price of GCr15Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel around China was 4,962 yuan/ton, 101 yuan up per ton compared with the price at the end of previous month; the average price of GCr15Φ100mm continuous casting annealed steel was 8068 yuan/ton, 57 yuan up per ton compared with the price at the end of previous month (some modifications applied to the statistical method).
Influenced by the Spring Festival, the price in bearing steel market firstly rose and then stabilized in January, and the overall market demand was relatively weak. The stock level went higher as individual businesses got the idea of stock up in winter. Some steel mills felt pessimistic to the market outlook, thus made less production arrangements. At the end of the lunar year, there were less orders in downstream markets, and many manufacturers announced holidays earlier, which made the market prematurely deserted. The market situation in 2012 was not good as a whole, so market participants generally had certain expectations on the market outlook though they remained cautious. The Spring Festival came in February this year, so there will not be great changes in bearing steel price, and the market is expected to operate in the consolidation state.
I. Domestic Output Situation of Bearing Steel
From January to December in 2012, the domestic output of crude steel by major quality special steel producers was about 2.941 million ton, 11.7 % down compared with the same period last year; the output of bearing steel of major quality special steel producers was 2.863 million tons, 10.8 % down compared with the same period last year. In December, the domestic output of crude steel and bearing steel was respectively 28,800 tons and 24,800 tons.
Figure 1: Change in Domestic Output of Bearing Steel (crude steel) from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Special Steel Association
Table 1: Domestic Output of Crude Steel by Bearing Steel Manufacturers from January to December in 2012 (Unit: ton)
Seen from Table 1 that the top three for bearing steel output from January to December in 2012 are Zhongxin Special Steel (Xinye Steel and Xingcheng Special Steel), Dongbei Speical Steel and Juneng Steel, and the rankings of other steel mills bore only small change (for Sha Steel, only the yield of Huai Steel is counted; some modifications are made to the statistical method for calculating Baosteel's output).
II. Performance of Domestic Bearing Steel Market in January:
(i) The export volume of bearing steel from January to December in 2012 slightly fell
According to the statistical data released by the ten major domestic bearing steel manufacturers, the export volume of bearing steel in December was 14,059 ton, increased by 234.82% year on year. Although the export growth in December obviously increased, the total export volume from January to 2012 was only 99,189 ton, much less compared to 132,913 ton in 2011.
Figure 2: Bearing Steel Export Situation in Major Domestic Special Steel Enterprises from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: MRI
The price in bearing steel market slightly increased in January
The market price rose in the first half of January but stabilized in the second half of the month influenced by the atmosphere of the Spring Festival. The overall market performance was not good in 2012, so traders tended to be cautious and stocked up less goods in winter. The detailed situations of bearing steel market across the country in January are as follows:
The bearing steel price in Hangzhou market increased, and the market transactions were normal. Up to the end of January, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,550 to 4,800 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was between 7,600 and 7,800 yuan/ton.
The bearing steel price in Luoyang market slightly increased and the deal was normal. Up to the end of January, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,500 to 4,800 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was from 7,600 to 7,800 yuan/ton.
The bearing steel price in Xi'an market also slightly increased and the deal was normal. Up to the end of January, the spot goods of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was relatively insufficient, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was around 7,650 yuan/ton.
As for Shenyang market, the prices rose, and the deal was relatively good. Up to the end of January, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4550 to 4750 yuan/ton, and the spot goods of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was insufficient.
Figure 3: Average Price Trend of Domestic Bearing Steel from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Mysteel
According to the statistics from Mysteeel.com: up to the end of January, 2012, the average price of GCr15Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel in China was 4,962 yuan/ton; the average price of GCr15Φ100mm die-casting annealed steel was 8,068 yuan/ton. (some modifications applied to the statistical method)
Table 2: Summary of Sales Price of Major Bearing Steel Manufacturers in East China (standard continuous casting non-annealed steel bar) Unit: yuan
Table 2 shows that the bearing steel prices in East China slightly rebounded in January, mainly in the range of 100-150 yuan/ton. This up trend appeared in the first half of the month due to the overall impact of the rise in the steel market, and was then further pulled up as the prices of iron ore, coke, chrome and other raw materials went high.
III. The Bearing Steel Market is to operate in Vulnerable Consolidation:
1. Raw materials
The price of high chromium increased in January, and the quoted price was 7900 yuan/ton at the end of the month, 450 yuan/ton increased compared with last month.
Figure 4: Average Price Trend of Domestic High Carbon Ferrochrome from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Mysteel
2. Steel Mills
The annual output in 2012 of the pig iron, crude steel, rolled steel was respectively 657.91 million tons, 716.54 million tons, 951.86 million tons, indicating a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, 3.1% and 7.7%, and falling 4.7, 5.8, 4.6 percentage points. Among national iron and steel enterprises, members of Iron and Steel Association realized crude steel production of 589.05 million tons, down 0.6%; other enterprises produced 127.49 million tons of crude steel, with an increase of 24.8%.
3. Steel Market
National industrial added value in 2012 increased by 10% compared with 2011, with the growth rate down 3.9 percentage points compared with 2011; the industrial export delivery value increased by 7.1%, with the growth of 16.6%, down 9.5 percentage points compared with 2011. The investment in railway transport sector only grew by 2.4% year-on-year; the investment in road transport industry grew by 6.6%, down 3.2 percentage points; the investment in development of real estate fell, with the growth rate down 11.7 percentage points; as for the three indicators in the shipbuilding industry, the shipbuilding capacity decreased by 21.45%, the volume of new orders decreased by 43.65%, and the orders on hand decreased by 28.66%.
4. Downstream Market
Due to the lack of demand in downstream industries, the steel capacity seems to be oversize. Steel products were extremely dificult to sell, and the price kept falling, which further intensified the competition between steel enterprises. Downstream enterprises are more cautious to the market outlook in 2013.
5. Market Outlook
On the whole, the operating environment of steel industry in 2013 is better than in 2012, and the demand for steel is to have some growth.However, the difficulties and challenges facing in 2013 should not be underestimated:
First, the demand growth in downstream industry remains flat, so steel consumption is difficult to have substantial growth; second, steel capacity expansion has not been effectively curbed, thus the oversupply situation will not change; third, the high cost situation of original fuel is not easy to change, which cause difficulty in the formation of a fair and transparent order in imported iron ore market; fourth, highly competitive product homogeneity poses obstacles to solve the unhealthy competition among enterprises, and the establishment of the industry fair competition order need the government to further deepen the reform.
Based on the current trend in bearing steel market, the market in February is to remain stable as a whole, with less possibility of price change.
Figure 1: Change in Domestic Output of Bearing Steel (crude steel) from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Special Steel Association
Table 1: Domestic Output of Crude Steel by Bearing Steel Manufacturers from January to December in 2012 (Unit: ton)
Seen from Table 1 that the top three for bearing steel output from January to December in 2012 are Zhongxin Special Steel (Xinye Steel and Xingcheng Special Steel), Dongbei Speical Steel and Juneng Steel, and the rankings of other steel mills bore only small change (for Sha Steel, only the yield of Huai Steel is counted; some modifications are made to the statistical method for calculating Baosteel's output).
II. Performance of Domestic Bearing Steel Market in January:
(i) The export volume of bearing steel from January to December in 2012 slightly fell
According to the statistical data released by the ten major domestic bearing steel manufacturers, the export volume of bearing steel in December was 14,059 ton, increased by 234.82% year on year. Although the export growth in December obviously increased, the total export volume from January to 2012 was only 99,189 ton, much less compared to 132,913 ton in 2011.
Figure 2: Bearing Steel Export Situation in Major Domestic Special Steel Enterprises from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: MRI
The price in bearing steel market slightly increased in January
The market price rose in the first half of January but stabilized in the second half of the month influenced by the atmosphere of the Spring Festival. The overall market performance was not good in 2012, so traders tended to be cautious and stocked up less goods in winter. The detailed situations of bearing steel market across the country in January are as follows:
The bearing steel price in Hangzhou market increased, and the market transactions were normal. Up to the end of January, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,550 to 4,800 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was between 7,600 and 7,800 yuan/ton.
The bearing steel price in Luoyang market slightly increased and the deal was normal. Up to the end of January, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,500 to 4,800 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was from 7,600 to 7,800 yuan/ton.
The bearing steel price in Xi'an market also slightly increased and the deal was normal. Up to the end of January, the spot goods of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was relatively insufficient, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was around 7,650 yuan/ton.
As for Shenyang market, the prices rose, and the deal was relatively good. Up to the end of January, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4550 to 4750 yuan/ton, and the spot goods of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was insufficient.
Figure 3: Average Price Trend of Domestic Bearing Steel from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Mysteel
According to the statistics from Mysteeel.com: up to the end of January, 2012, the average price of GCr15Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel in China was 4,962 yuan/ton; the average price of GCr15Φ100mm die-casting annealed steel was 8,068 yuan/ton. (some modifications applied to the statistical method)
Table 2: Summary of Sales Price of Major Bearing Steel Manufacturers in East China (standard continuous casting non-annealed steel bar) Unit: yuan
Table 2 shows that the bearing steel prices in East China slightly rebounded in January, mainly in the range of 100-150 yuan/ton. This up trend appeared in the first half of the month due to the overall impact of the rise in the steel market, and was then further pulled up as the prices of iron ore, coke, chrome and other raw materials went high.
III. The Bearing Steel Market is to operate in Vulnerable Consolidation:
1. Raw materials
The price of high chromium increased in January, and the quoted price was 7900 yuan/ton at the end of the month, 450 yuan/ton increased compared with last month.
Figure 4: Average Price Trend of Domestic High Carbon Ferrochrome from 2011 to 2012
Data Resource: Mysteel
2. Steel Mills
The annual output in 2012 of the pig iron, crude steel, rolled steel was respectively 657.91 million tons, 716.54 million tons, 951.86 million tons, indicating a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, 3.1% and 7.7%, and falling 4.7, 5.8, 4.6 percentage points. Among national iron and steel enterprises, members of Iron and Steel Association realized crude steel production of 589.05 million tons, down 0.6%; other enterprises produced 127.49 million tons of crude steel, with an increase of 24.8%.
3. Steel Market
National industrial added value in 2012 increased by 10% compared with 2011, with the growth rate down 3.9 percentage points compared with 2011; the industrial export delivery value increased by 7.1%, with the growth of 16.6%, down 9.5 percentage points compared with 2011. The investment in railway transport sector only grew by 2.4% year-on-year; the investment in road transport industry grew by 6.6%, down 3.2 percentage points; the investment in development of real estate fell, with the growth rate down 11.7 percentage points; as for the three indicators in the shipbuilding industry, the shipbuilding capacity decreased by 21.45%, the volume of new orders decreased by 43.65%, and the orders on hand decreased by 28.66%.
4. Downstream Market
Due to the lack of demand in downstream industries, the steel capacity seems to be oversize. Steel products were extremely dificult to sell, and the price kept falling, which further intensified the competition between steel enterprises. Downstream enterprises are more cautious to the market outlook in 2013.
5. Market Outlook
On the whole, the operating environment of steel industry in 2013 is better than in 2012, and the demand for steel is to have some growth.However, the difficulties and challenges facing in 2013 should not be underestimated:
First, the demand growth in downstream industry remains flat, so steel consumption is difficult to have substantial growth; second, steel capacity expansion has not been effectively curbed, thus the oversupply situation will not change; third, the high cost situation of original fuel is not easy to change, which cause difficulty in the formation of a fair and transparent order in imported iron ore market; fourth, highly competitive product homogeneity poses obstacles to solve the unhealthy competition among enterprises, and the establishment of the industry fair competition order need the government to further deepen the reform.
Based on the current trend in bearing steel market, the market in February is to remain stable as a whole, with less possibility of price change.
(CBCC)
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1.The news above mentioned with detailed source are from internet.We are trying our best to assure they are accurate ,timely and safe so as to let bearing users and sellers read more related info.However, it doesn't mean we agree with any point of view referred in above contents and we are not responsible for the authenticity. If you want to publish the news,please note the source and you will be legally responsible for the news published.
2.All news edited and translated by us are specially noted the source"CBCC".
3.For investors,please be cautious for all news.We don't bear any damage brought by late and inaccurate news.
4.If the news we published involves copyright of yours,just let us know.
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