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Bearing steel market is to slightly fluctuate in Jun

Resource from:  CBCC Likes:219
Jul 24,2013
Overview: Looking back to the domestic bearing steel markets in May, the price of GCr15Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel slightly dropped, and the markets were thinly traded. Up to the end of May, the average price of GCr15Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel around China was 5,040 yuan/ton, 67 yuan down per ton compared with the price at the end of previous month; the average price of GCr15Φ100mm continuous casting annealed steel was 8068 yuan/ton. Steel markets in May were in down trend as a whole, where prices fell sharply. Steel crude production was high, and traders had difficulty in shipment, which caused huge pressure on the spot market. Major steel mills plans no sharp output reduction or overhaul in June, so the contradiction of supply exceeding demand will remain. Downstream market demand can not be substantially improved in short term, and the downward trend will continue. The prices of building materials and other varieties now have arrived at a relatively low level, but the prices of iron ore and other raw materials haven't drop to the lowest level compared with previous years. Based on this, the market price may not have hit the bottom. Bearing steel price is expected to have a narrow range of shocks in Jun, with the possibility of slight drop. I. Domestic Output Situation of Bearing Steel From January to April in 2013, the domestic output of crude steel by major quality special steel producers was about 0.949 million ton, 8.0 % down compared with the same period last year; the output of bearing steel of major quality special steel producers was 0.797 million tons, 20.4 % down compared with the same period last year. Seen from Table 1 that the top three for bearing steel output from January to April in 2013 are still Zhongxin Special Steel (Xinye Steel and Xingcheng Special Steel), Dongbei Speical Steel and Juneng Steel, and the rankings of other steel mills bore only small change (for Sha Steel, only the yield of Huai Steel is counted; some modifications are made to the statistical method for calculating Baosteel's output). II. Performance of Domestic Bearing Steel Market in May: 1. The export volume of bearing steel from January to April in 2013 slightly fell According to the statistical data released by the ten major domestic bearing steel manufacturers, The bearing steel export volume was 11,435 tons in April, 2013, rose by 82.38% on year-on-year basis. The export volume showed obvious growth in April, and the accumulative export volume from January to April is 45,904 tons. 2. Bearing steel market prices fell in May, and transactions remained poor, so traders were pessimistic to the market outlook. The detailed situations of bearing steel markets across the country in May are as follows: The bearing steel price in Hangzhou market slightly fell, and transactions were acceptable. Up to the end of May, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,550 to 4,850 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was between 7,600 and 7,800 yuan/ton. The bearing steel price in Luoyang market was flat and the deal was normal. Up to the end of May, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,750 to 5,950 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was from 7,500 to 7,800 yuan/ton. The bearing steel price in Xi'an market remained stable and the deal was normal. Up to the end of May, the spot goods of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was relatively insufficient, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was around 7,700 yuan/ton. As for Shenyang market, the prices was also stable, and the deal was relatively good. Up to the end of May, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4650 to 4800 yuan/ton, and the spot goods of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was insufficient. According to the statistics from Mysteeel.com: up to the end of May, 2013, the average price of GCr15Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel in China was 5,107 yuan/ton; the average price of GCr15Φ100mm die-casting annealed steel was 8,068 yuan/ton. (some modifications applied to the statistical method) Table 2 shows that the bearing steel prices in East China fell in May, mainly in the range of 150 yuan/ton. The main reasons are poor market performance, high steel production and sluggish sales, and market participants felt pessimistic to the market outlook. III. The Bearing Steel Market is to operate in Vulnerable Consolidation: 1. Raw materials The price of high chromium fell sharply in May, and the quoted price was around 7100 yuan/ton at the end of the month, flat from the preceding month. 2. Steel Mills According to the latest data released by CISA, the daily output of crude steel in mid-May of its member units was 1,740,500 tons, down 0.4% QoQ; the estimated national average daily production was 2,185,400 tons, down 0.3% QoQ. It is reported that in early May, the national average daily production rose to 2,192,900 tons, up 3.02% QoQ, setting a new record. In mid-late May, the steel stock of China Steel Association member companies was 3,680,500 tons, representing an increase of 590,000 tons compared with previous ten days. 3. Markets New investment projects and a new round of economic stimulus plans are less likely to be approved recently due to function adjustments in national ministries functions started earlier, and it is expected not to be completed till the end of June. Markets may enter a new stage in late June, and downstream manufacturing sector is now in the dull season. Social stock will stay at a relatively safe level, but the stock pressure of steel will remain. The bearing steel price is difficult to rise only if the market demand is significantly improved. The prices of building materials and other varieties now have arrived at a relatively low level, but the prices of iron ore and other raw materials haven't drop to the lowest level compared with previous years. Based on this, the market price may not have hit the bottom. Bearing steel price is expected to have a narrow range of shocks in Jun, with the possibility of slight drop.
(CBCC)
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