Bearing steel market is to operate in weak consolidation in August
Resource from: CBCC Likes:199
Aug 29,2013
Overview: Looking back to the domestic bearing steel markets in July, the price of GCr15Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel further dropped, and the markets were thinly traded. Up to the end of July, the average price of GCr15Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel around China was 4,828 yuan/ton, 75 yuan down per ton compared with the price at the end of previous month; the average price of GCr15Φ100mm continuous casting annealed steel was 8068 yuan/ton.
Market performance was poor in July. Prices declined significantly, steel mills' output remained at a higher level, and downstream enterprises were still unwilling to purchase. The price of iron ore and other raw materials was at a higher level, and the costs of steel mills remained high. This year's overall economic slows down, and now is during the traditional off season. Steel mills now hope for price rise while traders continues poor performance in shipment, so the trend of bearing steel market in August is worth your attention.
I. Domestic Output Situation of Bearing Steel
From January to May in 2013, the domestic output of crude steel by major quality special steel producers was about 1.434 million ton, 12.9 % down compared with the same period last year; the bearing steel output of major quality special steel producers was 1.411 million ton, 11.8 % down compared with the same period last year. Wherein, for single month June, output of bearing crude steel was 0.261 million ton, and that of bearing steel was 0.247 million ton.
Figure 1: Change in Domestic Output of Bearing Steel (crude steel) from 2012 to 2013
Data Resource: Special Steel Association
Table 1: Domestic Output of Crude Steel by Bearing Steel Manufacturers from January to June in 2013 (Unit: ton)
Seen from Table 1 that the top three for bearing steel output from January to May in 2013 are still Zhongxin Special Steel (Xinye Steel and Xingcheng Special Steel), Dongbei Speical Steel and Juneng Steel. (for Sha Steel, only the yield of Huai Steel is counted; some modifications are made to the statistical method for calculating Baosteel's output). Among these 24 companies, the crude bearing steel ouput of 12 companies increased and 12 fell, but the output fell as a whole. More steel mills joins the team of bearing steel production enterprises, and there are 4 enterprises than the same period last year according to data above, respectively Chengde Jianlong Steel, Tianguan Steel, Qingdao Iron and Steel and Taiyuan Steel.
I. Performance of Domestic Bearing Steel Market in July:
(i) The export volume of bearing steel from January to June in 2013 slightly fell
According to the statistical data released by the ten major domestic bearing steel manufacturers, the bearing steel export volume was 11,547 tons in June, 2013, rose by 38.14 % on year-on-year basis; the cumulative export volume in the same period was 67,392 tons.
Figure 2: Bearing Steel Export Situation in Major Domestic Special Steel Enterprises from 2012 to 2013
Data Resource: MRI
(ii) The prices in bearing steel market slightly fell in July
Bearing steel market prices fell in July, and transactions remained poor, so traders were pessimistic to the market outlook. The detailed situations of bearing steel markets across the country in July are as follows:
The bearing steel price in Hangzhou market fell sharply, and transactions were poor. Up to the end of July, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4350 to 4550 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was between 7,600 and 8,000 yuan/ton.
The bearing steel price in Luoyang market fell slightly and the deal was normal. Up to the end of July, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,550 to 4,700 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was from 7,500 to 7,800 yuan/ton.
The bearing steel price in Xi'an market slightly fell and the deal was normal. Up to the end of July, the spot goods of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was relatively insufficient, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was around 7,700 yuan/ton.
As for Shenyang market, the prices fell sharply, and the deal was poor. Up to the end of July, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4150 to 4200 yuan/ton, and the spot goods of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was insufficient.
According to the statistics from Mysteeel.com: up to the end of July 2013, the average price of GCr15Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel in China was 4,828 yuan/ton; the average price of GCr15Φ100mm die-casting annealed steel was 8,068 yuan/ton. (some modifications applied to the statistical method)
Table 2: Summary of Sales Price of Major Bearing Steel Manufacturers in East China (standard continuous casting non-annealed steel bar) Unit: yuan
Table 2 shows that the bearing steel prices in East China fell in July, mainly in the range of 50-100 yuan/ton. Market turnover was at a poor level, and downstream business demand was low. Fortunately, the stock change was relatively stable, and no jetting of cargo appeared. But market participants felt pessimistic to the market outlook.
III. The Bearing Steel Market is to operate in Vulnerable Consolidation:
1. Raw materials
The price of high chromium was stable in July, and the quoted price was around 7100 yuan/ton at the end of June, flat from the preceding month. The prices of iron ore, scrap steel, ferroalloy and other raw materials rose fast while the cost of steel production increased significantly, so most of the manufacturers were low in profits or near negative profit.
2. Steel Mills
The average daily crude steel production in mid-July was stimated to 213 million tons, at a relatively high level, which was mainly due to the increased level of profitability. The average daily crude steel production in July was estimated to be around 2.12 million tons. According to the latest survey performed by My steel net, 15 new blast furnaces were bulit in 2013, and the production capacity was more than 25 million tons with the growth rate of 3.8 %. Proposed projects and those under construction will realize production capacity of more than 15 million tons, with the growth rate of 2 % or so. According to statistics, 4 of the domestic 17 bearing steel main production enterprises made upward adjustments in price in July, 2 made a cut, and other 11 made no adjustment. Steel mills' confidence has improved, and became optimistic to the market outlook.
3. Markets
In July 2013, China's manufacturing PMI purchasing managers index was 50.3%, up 0.2 % compared with last month. The overall steel market supply and demand may continue to improve in Auguest, which can provide some support to the steel price. From inventory perspective, there was a downward trend. The relation between supply and demand continued to improve. Traders generally performed poorly in shipment, and the conditions for sharp rise in bearing steel price are not adequate in short term, but it is expected to have a slight adjustment in price.
4. Downstream markets
The electricity consumption in June expanded 1.3 points on year-on-year basis, the growth rate of new construction area in real estate sector expanded 2.8 points, and the growth rate of the railway infrastructure investment in the first half of reached 25.7%, with 2/3 of the investment to be completed in the second half. From January to June, the automobile production and sales volume was respectively 10,751,700 units and 10,782,200 units, with an increase of 12.83% and 12.34%. The production halts and maintenance of steel mills has eased the supply pressure, and industrial production and marketing situation is still good. It is foreseeable that stocks will continue to decline, and it will pull up the steel price instead of supporting once market shortage appeared.
5. Market outlook
The prices of raw materials were steadily rising; steel social stock continued to fall; steel mills generally raised the ex-factory price in August. HSBC manufacturing PMI hit 11-month low in July; the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased on year-on-year basis in the first six months; Fed may downsize the QE scale in the second half of year; steel production is still high; oriented by industry, the steel trading sector is now in face of difficulties in getting loans; many parts of China are under hot weather, so the end demand is difficult to improve. The overall economic situation has significantly declined this year, crude steel production remains at a high level, and now is during the traditional off season, so bearing steel market is difficult to see a rising trend.
Bearing steel market is expected to run in weak consolidation state in August, with possibility of slight rise in price.
Data Resource: Special Steel Association
Table 1: Domestic Output of Crude Steel by Bearing Steel Manufacturers from January to June in 2013 (Unit: ton)
Seen from Table 1 that the top three for bearing steel output from January to May in 2013 are still Zhongxin Special Steel (Xinye Steel and Xingcheng Special Steel), Dongbei Speical Steel and Juneng Steel. (for Sha Steel, only the yield of Huai Steel is counted; some modifications are made to the statistical method for calculating Baosteel's output). Among these 24 companies, the crude bearing steel ouput of 12 companies increased and 12 fell, but the output fell as a whole. More steel mills joins the team of bearing steel production enterprises, and there are 4 enterprises than the same period last year according to data above, respectively Chengde Jianlong Steel, Tianguan Steel, Qingdao Iron and Steel and Taiyuan Steel.
I. Performance of Domestic Bearing Steel Market in July:
(i) The export volume of bearing steel from January to June in 2013 slightly fell
According to the statistical data released by the ten major domestic bearing steel manufacturers, the bearing steel export volume was 11,547 tons in June, 2013, rose by 38.14 % on year-on-year basis; the cumulative export volume in the same period was 67,392 tons.
Figure 2: Bearing Steel Export Situation in Major Domestic Special Steel Enterprises from 2012 to 2013
Data Resource: MRI
(ii) The prices in bearing steel market slightly fell in July
Bearing steel market prices fell in July, and transactions remained poor, so traders were pessimistic to the market outlook. The detailed situations of bearing steel markets across the country in July are as follows:
The bearing steel price in Hangzhou market fell sharply, and transactions were poor. Up to the end of July, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4350 to 4550 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was between 7,600 and 8,000 yuan/ton.
The bearing steel price in Luoyang market fell slightly and the deal was normal. Up to the end of July, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,550 to 4,700 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was from 7,500 to 7,800 yuan/ton.
The bearing steel price in Xi'an market slightly fell and the deal was normal. Up to the end of July, the spot goods of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was relatively insufficient, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was around 7,700 yuan/ton.
As for Shenyang market, the prices fell sharply, and the deal was poor. Up to the end of July, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4150 to 4200 yuan/ton, and the spot goods of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was insufficient.
According to the statistics from Mysteeel.com: up to the end of July 2013, the average price of GCr15Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel in China was 4,828 yuan/ton; the average price of GCr15Φ100mm die-casting annealed steel was 8,068 yuan/ton. (some modifications applied to the statistical method)
Table 2: Summary of Sales Price of Major Bearing Steel Manufacturers in East China (standard continuous casting non-annealed steel bar) Unit: yuan
Table 2 shows that the bearing steel prices in East China fell in July, mainly in the range of 50-100 yuan/ton. Market turnover was at a poor level, and downstream business demand was low. Fortunately, the stock change was relatively stable, and no jetting of cargo appeared. But market participants felt pessimistic to the market outlook.
III. The Bearing Steel Market is to operate in Vulnerable Consolidation:
1. Raw materials
The price of high chromium was stable in July, and the quoted price was around 7100 yuan/ton at the end of June, flat from the preceding month. The prices of iron ore, scrap steel, ferroalloy and other raw materials rose fast while the cost of steel production increased significantly, so most of the manufacturers were low in profits or near negative profit.
2. Steel Mills
The average daily crude steel production in mid-July was stimated to 213 million tons, at a relatively high level, which was mainly due to the increased level of profitability. The average daily crude steel production in July was estimated to be around 2.12 million tons. According to the latest survey performed by My steel net, 15 new blast furnaces were bulit in 2013, and the production capacity was more than 25 million tons with the growth rate of 3.8 %. Proposed projects and those under construction will realize production capacity of more than 15 million tons, with the growth rate of 2 % or so. According to statistics, 4 of the domestic 17 bearing steel main production enterprises made upward adjustments in price in July, 2 made a cut, and other 11 made no adjustment. Steel mills' confidence has improved, and became optimistic to the market outlook.
3. Markets
In July 2013, China's manufacturing PMI purchasing managers index was 50.3%, up 0.2 % compared with last month. The overall steel market supply and demand may continue to improve in Auguest, which can provide some support to the steel price. From inventory perspective, there was a downward trend. The relation between supply and demand continued to improve. Traders generally performed poorly in shipment, and the conditions for sharp rise in bearing steel price are not adequate in short term, but it is expected to have a slight adjustment in price.
4. Downstream markets
The electricity consumption in June expanded 1.3 points on year-on-year basis, the growth rate of new construction area in real estate sector expanded 2.8 points, and the growth rate of the railway infrastructure investment in the first half of reached 25.7%, with 2/3 of the investment to be completed in the second half. From January to June, the automobile production and sales volume was respectively 10,751,700 units and 10,782,200 units, with an increase of 12.83% and 12.34%. The production halts and maintenance of steel mills has eased the supply pressure, and industrial production and marketing situation is still good. It is foreseeable that stocks will continue to decline, and it will pull up the steel price instead of supporting once market shortage appeared.
5. Market outlook
The prices of raw materials were steadily rising; steel social stock continued to fall; steel mills generally raised the ex-factory price in August. HSBC manufacturing PMI hit 11-month low in July; the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased on year-on-year basis in the first six months; Fed may downsize the QE scale in the second half of year; steel production is still high; oriented by industry, the steel trading sector is now in face of difficulties in getting loans; many parts of China are under hot weather, so the end demand is difficult to improve. The overall economic situation has significantly declined this year, crude steel production remains at a high level, and now is during the traditional off season, so bearing steel market is difficult to see a rising trend.
Bearing steel market is expected to run in weak consolidation state in August, with possibility of slight rise in price.
(CBCC)
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1.The news above mentioned with detailed source are from internet.We are trying our best to assure they are accurate ,timely and safe so as to let bearing users and sellers read more related info.However, it doesn't mean we agree with any point of view referred in above contents and we are not responsible for the authenticity. If you want to publish the news,please note the source and you will be legally responsible for the news published.
2.All news edited and translated by us are specially noted the source"CBCC".
3.For investors,please be cautious for all news.We don't bear any damage brought by late and inaccurate news.
4.If the news we published involves copyright of yours,just let us know.
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