Weekly Review of Bearing Steel Market in China (Dec 7th to 13th, 2013)

Note:(yuan/ton)
1) HR: hot rolled steel,diameter 50 mm
2) A: anneal rolled steel,diameter 100 mm
Region code
SH: Shanghai
HZ: Hangzhou, Zhejiang province
WX: Wuxi, Jiangsu province
CZ: Changzhou, Jiangsu province
CS: Changsha, Hunan province
WH: Wuhan, Hubei province
LY: Luoyang, Henan province
LW: Laiwu, Shandong province
CQ: Chongqing
CD: Chengdu, Sichuan province
XA: Xi'an, Shaanxi province
TJ: Tianjin
SY: Shenyang, Liaoning province
HRB: Harbin, Heilongjiang province
This week, the price in bearing steel market is generally stable, with individual market showing signs of slight decline, and the turnover is tepid. The current steel market is in a balance of both weak supply and demand, environmental management upgrading in the north give a little boost to the market, but the effect is very limited as market parties are cautious to behave in the end of the year. Although specification shortage has strong support for the current market price, it is difficult to pull up the price in short term, as turnover remains at a weak level. With the effect of off-season deepening, downstream demand shrinks, and the the market volume drops, which causes difficulties for price rise. As the price difference spreads in the north and the south market, northern steel mills will make efforts to increase resources southward. As resources gradually enter the south market, the pressure on sales will further increase, which will depress the steel price. Up to Friday, the average price of continuous casting non-annealed steel nationwide was still 4792 yuan/ton, 2 yuan/ton down and the prevailing quotations for continuous casting non-annealed steel from the second ranking steel plants in South China remains in the range of 4200 to 4550 yuan/ton. The average price of die-casting annealed steel is 8054 yuan/ton.
[Raw material]
Domestic concentrate iron powder market runs smoothly as a whole. Imported ore market tend to go weak on a steady basis; futures market goes down in a range bound pattern; the price in spot market slightly looses, and the turnover was light. Pig iron price rises on a steady basis, and the turnover is in general. DRI market is weak on a stable basis, and spot market turnover shows no improvement. The offer prices of all varieties remains basically unchanged from last week. The price in Tangshan steel billet market rises by 50 yuan/ton, and the market basically maintains the consolidation state in an upward trend. Scrap steel market runs stably, and the steel price is slightly adjusted in some areas. East market remains stable, trading in general. Stainless steel scrap market also rans stably, thinly traded. PCI coal market operates in a upward trend driven by the sharp rise in thermal coal price. Anthracite market remains stable, the same with the coal price. Thermal coal prices show rising trend in some areas rose 10-20 yuan / ton. Coking coal market runs stably, and no great volatility in price is seen in mainstream markets; downstream coking steel companies remains high in stocks, winter storage replenishment is relatively slow. Imported coal market shows different trends, where spot futures of metallurgical coal experiences both rise and fall in price, and thermal coal trades well. Coke market continues the steady upward trend, market price slightly rises in some areas, market demand is relatively strong, and shipment and transactions situation turns better. Common alloys and special alloys markets both ran in weak tendency; transactions were ordinary.
[Macroeconomic information]
Funds: According to the data released by the People's Bank of China on November 11, 2013, RMB loans is increased by approximately 624.6 billion yuan, 118.5 billion yuan more than the last month, and 102.6 billion yuan more compared with the same period last year. So far, the total amount of newly accumulated RMB loans from January to November 2013 is 8.408 trillion yuan. At the same time, by the end of November, M2 grew by 14.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
Investment: From January to November 2013, the investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) is 39.1283 trillion yuan, with an increase of 19.9% on year-on-year basis, and growth rate down 0.2 percentage points over first ten months. Seen from the chain relative ratio, the fixed asset investment in November is increased by 1.47% (excluding rural households). Seen from the industry category, the investment in the first industry is 850.9 billion yuan from January to November 2013, with an increase of 31.7%, and 1.1 percentage points higher than the growth rate in the first ten months; investment in the second industrial is 16.7043 trillion yuan, with an increase of 17.3%, and the growth rate down 0.3 percentage points over the first ten months; investment in the tertiary industry is 21.573 trillion yuan, with an increase of 21.5%, and the growth rate down 0.1 percentage points over the first ten months.
Consumption: In November 2013, the national consumer price index rises 3.0%. Wherein, the rise in cities is 3.0%, in rural areas 3.1%; food prices rise 5.9%, non-food price rises 1.6%; consumer price rises 2.9%, service price rises 3.3%. From January to November 2013, the average national consumer price index rises by 2.6% over last year.
Data: In November 2013, the ex-factory price of industrial producer falls 1.4 %, unchanged QoQ (change rate is 0, the same below). Industrial producer price falls by 1.5%, unchanged QoQ. From January to November 2013, the average ex-factory price of national industrial producer falls 2.0 percent, while the purchase price falls 2.1%.
[Market Review]
[East China Region] This week, the bearing steel price in East China market was stable, and the turnover was ordinary. Up to this weekend, the quotations in Hangzhou market are as follows: Xinye GCr15Φ50-70 non-annealed steel was 4,350 yuan/ton; Echeng Steel GCr15Φ30-75 heat-treated non-annealed steel was 4200 yuan/ton; Shanghai No.5 Steel Plant GCr15Φ26-70 heat-treated spheroidizing annealed steel was 7,300 yuan/ton; Xingcheng Steel GCr15Φ50 non-annealed steel was 5,200 yuan/ton, less stock; Nanjing Steel Group GCr15Φ16-40 heat-treated non-annealed steel was 4,400 yuan/ton; Dongbei Special Steel GCr15Φ30-95 hot-rolled non-annealed steel was 4,550 yuan/ton; Shougang Group GCr15Φ50 hot-rolled non-annealed steel was out of stock. This week, the bearing steel price in Wuxi market slightly declined, and the turnover was ordinary. Up to this weekend, the quotations in Wuxi market are as follows: Xingcheng Steel GCr15Φ30-75 hot-rolled non-annealed steel was 5,200 yuan/ton; Xinyegang Steel GCr15Φ30-50 continuous casting annealed steel was 5200-5,250 yuan/ton; Beiman Steel GCr15Φ40-75 heat-treated annealed steel was 5250-5,300 yuan/ton; Wuxi Huarun Steel GCr15Φ50-80 hot-rolled non-annealed steel was 4450 yuan/ton, less stock; Nanjing Steel GCr15Φ50 hot-rolled non-annealed steel was around 4,450 yuan/ton; Dongbei Special Steel GCr15Φ40-75 hot-rolled non-annealed steel was 4600 yuan/ton.
[Central South China Region] This week, the bearing steel price in Luoyang market remained stable, thinly traded. Up to this weekend, the quotations in Luoyang market are as follows: Shijiazhuang Steel GCr15Φ16-50 heat-treated annealed steel was 5,550 yuan/ton and the GCr15Φ16-30 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 4,750 yuan/ton; Xinyegang Steel GCr15Φ50-130 die-casting non-annealed steel was 7,700 yuan/ton, out of stock; Changcheng Special Steel GCr15Φ45 continuous casting annealed steel was 5,550 yuan/ton, out of stock, and the die-casting non-annealed steel was 4,600 yuan/ton; Xining Steel GCr15Φ25-70 continuous casting non-annealed steal was 4,750 yuan/ton. This week, the bearing steel price in Wuhan market was also stable, and the turnover was ordinary. Echeng Steel GCr15Φ14-30 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 4,600 yuan/ton; Xinyegang Steel GCr15Φ80-110 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 5,150 yuan/ton, GCr15Φ40-75 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 5,100 yuan/ton, and the die-casting annealed steel was 7,550 yuan/ton.
[North China Region] This week, the bearing steel price in Shenyang market fell, and the market transaction was ordinary. Up to this weekend, Dongbei Special Steel GCr15Φ25-60 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 4,500 yuan/ton, out of stock; Benxi Steel Φ90-120 continuous casting steel was 4,100 yuan/ton, Benxi Steel GCr15Φ160-180 die-casting annealed steel was 6,600-6,650 yuan/ton. This week, the bearing steel price in Harbin market was flat, and the deal was common. Benxi Steel GCr15Φ20-75 heat-treated annealed steel was 6,500 yuan/ton, out of stock; Dongbei Special Steel GCr15Φ50 heat-treated annealed steel was out of stock; Dongbei Special Steel GCr15Φ40-75 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 4,550 yuan/ton.
[Southwest China Region] This week, the bearing steel price in Chengdu market was stable and the market resources were not sufficient. Up to this weekend, Xinyegang Steel GCr15Φ50 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 4950 yuan/ton, Changcheng Steel GCr15Φ80-130 continuous casting annealed steel was 6,350 yuan/ton; Xining Steel Φ150-200 die-casting annealed steel was 7,800 yuan/ton, out of stock; Xining Steel GCr15Φ30-75 continuous casting annealed steel was 6,300 yuan/ton, less stock. This week, the bearing steel price in Chongqing market remained stable. Donghua Special Steel GCr15Φ20-30 heat-treated annealed steel was out of stock; Xining Steel Φ80-120 rolled annealed steel was 6,350 yuan/ton, out of stock; Changcheng Steel GCr15Φ40-65 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 5,100 yuan/ton; Xining Steel Φ80-150 forged annealed steel was 7,500 yuan/ton, less stock.
[Prediction on next week's market]
Based on current market situation, the Third Plenary Session of Eleventh Central Committee did not bring good news to steel traders. The reforms have not temporarily related to any specific industry, and the only specified item "environmental protection" is also difficult to bring substantial change in the short term. Coupled with the approaching the end of the year, steel traders are not active in winter preparation due to funding issues and less ideal market outlook. The price will be generally stable in the short term, but it is still worth looking forward to a procurement upsurge before the the Spring Festival.
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Next Aug 17 Bearing Steel Price in Different Regions of China
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