Bearing steel price will continue the weaker consolidation state in December
Resource from: CBCC Likes:165
Dec 30,2013
Overview: In October, the output of crude bearing steel rose 14,000 tons QoQ, and exports down 34% QoQ. In November, the raw material prices of continuous casting and molded GCr15 bearing steel fell 17 and 14 yuan/ton respectively QoQ. Overall, the bearing steel market was in the downturn in November.
In mid-November, the average daily production of crude steel was 2,131,900 tons, increased by 33,500 tons compared with amount at the end of October; during the same period, the stock of key steel mills was 13,933,900 tons, reaching the highest level of the year. The market demand slowed in December, which may affect the transactions of bearing steel. Meanwhile, traders now face the year-end financial strain problem, which will be a major resistance to the price rise. Therefore, the bearing steel market is expected to run in weak consolidation trend in December.
I. Output of Bearing Steel
From January to October, 2013, the output of crude bearing steel of major steel companies was 2.494 million tons, dropped by 1% compared with last year; during the same period, the steel output of major special steel companies was 2,405,600 tons, down 0.5% compared to last year. In October, the monthly output of crude bearing steel was 22.5 million tons, and the monthly output of bearing steel was 28.8 million tons.
Figure 1: Change in Domestic Output of Bearing Steel (crude steel) from 2012 to 2013
Table 1: Domestic Output of Crude Steel by Bearing Steel Manufacturers from January to October in 2013 (Unit: ton)
Seen from Table 1 that the top three for bearing steel output from January to October in 2013 are still Zhongxin Special Steel (Xinye Steel and Xingcheng Special Steel), Dongbei Speical Steel and Juneng Steel. (for Sha Steel, only the yield of Huai Steel is counted; some modifications are made to the statistical method for calculating Baosteel's output). Among these 25 companies, the crude bearing steel ouput of 12 companies increased while 15 fell.
I. Performance of Domestic Bearing Steel Market in October:
(i) The export volume of bearing steel from January to October in 2013 slightly fell
According to the statistical data released by the ten major domestic bearing steel manufacturers, the bearing steel export volume was 6,285 tons in October, 2013, up 19.33% on year-on-year basis; the export volume has steadily increased from this period, with the cumulative export volume in the same period of 102,628 tons.
Figure 2: Bearing Steel Export Situation in Major Domestic Special Steel Enterprises from 2012 to 2013
Data Resource: MRI
II. The prices in bearing steel market slightly increased in November
Bearing steel market price slightly increased in November, transactions remained poor, so trader had less in confidence in the market. The detailed situations of bearing steel markets across the country in November are as follows:
Hangzhou market, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 4380 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was between 7,800 yuan/ton.
Luoyang market, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 4,750 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was 7,800 yuan/ton.
Xi'an market, the the spot goods of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was insufficient, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was around 7,500 yuan/ton.
As for Shenyang market, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,150yuan/ton, and the spot goods of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was insufficient.
According to the statistics from Mysteeel.com: up to the end of November, the average price of GCr15Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel in China was 4,794 yuan/ton; the average price of GCr15Φ100mm die-casting annealed steel was 8,054 yuan/ton. (some modifications applied to the statistical method)
Table 2: Summary of Sales Price of Major Bearing Steel Manufacturers in East China (standard continuous casting non-annealed steel bar) Unit: yuan
III. The Bearing Steel Market is to operate in Vulnerable Consolidation:
1. Raw materials
In November, national average price of high carbon ferrochrome was 7013 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. Raw materials price is expected to stay at the low level in December, so the support force of which to the production cost of steel bearing will be weakened.
2. PMI index: PMI index was 49.0% in November, up 1.5% compared with the previous month. Among the main sub-items, the production index edged up to 49.4%; new orders index bottomed out at 48.5%, but still out of the expansion territory; finished goods inventory index fell to 47.5 percent; raw materials inventory index increased to 49.4%; new export orders index rose to 56 % back into expansion territory. According to the data, the steel industry is still in the doldrums.
3. Funds: Under normal circumstances, traders tend to sell goods at lower price due to tightening liquidity at the end of the year. But seen from the trend chart of Shanghai interbank (overnight) call rate Shibor, the financial strain will not be more severe than in June.
In summary, the bearing steel market will continue the weaker consolidation state in December due to lack of upward momentum.
Table 1: Domestic Output of Crude Steel by Bearing Steel Manufacturers from January to October in 2013 (Unit: ton)
Seen from Table 1 that the top three for bearing steel output from January to October in 2013 are still Zhongxin Special Steel (Xinye Steel and Xingcheng Special Steel), Dongbei Speical Steel and Juneng Steel. (for Sha Steel, only the yield of Huai Steel is counted; some modifications are made to the statistical method for calculating Baosteel's output). Among these 25 companies, the crude bearing steel ouput of 12 companies increased while 15 fell.
I. Performance of Domestic Bearing Steel Market in October:
(i) The export volume of bearing steel from January to October in 2013 slightly fell
According to the statistical data released by the ten major domestic bearing steel manufacturers, the bearing steel export volume was 6,285 tons in October, 2013, up 19.33% on year-on-year basis; the export volume has steadily increased from this period, with the cumulative export volume in the same period of 102,628 tons.
Figure 2: Bearing Steel Export Situation in Major Domestic Special Steel Enterprises from 2012 to 2013
Data Resource: MRI
II. The prices in bearing steel market slightly increased in November
Bearing steel market price slightly increased in November, transactions remained poor, so trader had less in confidence in the market. The detailed situations of bearing steel markets across the country in November are as follows:
Hangzhou market, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 4380 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was between 7,800 yuan/ton.
Luoyang market, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 4,750 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was 7,800 yuan/ton.
Xi'an market, the the spot goods of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was insufficient, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was around 7,500 yuan/ton.
As for Shenyang market, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,150yuan/ton, and the spot goods of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was insufficient.
According to the statistics from Mysteeel.com: up to the end of November, the average price of GCr15Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel in China was 4,794 yuan/ton; the average price of GCr15Φ100mm die-casting annealed steel was 8,054 yuan/ton. (some modifications applied to the statistical method)
Table 2: Summary of Sales Price of Major Bearing Steel Manufacturers in East China (standard continuous casting non-annealed steel bar) Unit: yuan
III. The Bearing Steel Market is to operate in Vulnerable Consolidation:
1. Raw materials
In November, national average price of high carbon ferrochrome was 7013 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. Raw materials price is expected to stay at the low level in December, so the support force of which to the production cost of steel bearing will be weakened.
2. PMI index: PMI index was 49.0% in November, up 1.5% compared with the previous month. Among the main sub-items, the production index edged up to 49.4%; new orders index bottomed out at 48.5%, but still out of the expansion territory; finished goods inventory index fell to 47.5 percent; raw materials inventory index increased to 49.4%; new export orders index rose to 56 % back into expansion territory. According to the data, the steel industry is still in the doldrums.
3. Funds: Under normal circumstances, traders tend to sell goods at lower price due to tightening liquidity at the end of the year. But seen from the trend chart of Shanghai interbank (overnight) call rate Shibor, the financial strain will not be more severe than in June.
In summary, the bearing steel market will continue the weaker consolidation state in December due to lack of upward momentum.
(CBCC)
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1.The news above mentioned with detailed source are from internet.We are trying our best to assure they are accurate ,timely and safe so as to let bearing users and sellers read more related info.However, it doesn't mean we agree with any point of view referred in above contents and we are not responsible for the authenticity. If you want to publish the news,please note the source and you will be legally responsible for the news published.
2.All news edited and translated by us are specially noted the source"CBCC".
3.For investors,please be cautious for all news.We don't bear any damage brought by late and inaccurate news.
4.If the news we published involves copyright of yours,just let us know.
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