Weekly Review of Bearing Steel Market in China (Dec 21st to 27th, 2013)

Note:(yuan/ton)
1) HR: hot rolled steel,diameter 50 mm
2) A: anneal rolled steel,diameter 100 mm
Region code
SH: Shanghai
HZ: Hangzhou, Zhejiang province
WX: Wuxi, Jiangsu province
CZ: Changzhou, Jiangsu province
CS: Changsha, Hunan province
WH: Wuhan, Hubei province
LY: Luoyang, Henan province
LW: Laiwu, Shandong province
CQ: Chongqing
CD: Chengdu, Sichuan province
XA: Xi'an, Shaanxi province
TJ: Tianjin
SY: Shenyang, Liaoning province
HRB: Harbin, Heilongjiang provinc
[Overview]
This week, bearing steel price falls slightly, and the market turnover is also unsatisfactory. [Market] Due to the effect of funding constraints, seasonal weather factors, etc., the reduced speed of demand is significantly faster than that of supply, so the external market also operates in weak trend. As the cold weather sweeps across the most of the country, outdoor project see in its the off season, which is undoubtedly the biggest obstacle to building materials that drives the steel price. Market demand is certain to decline, and this weakening will also affect the bearing steel market. [Social inventory] Under the effect of environmental management, cost pressures and normal maintenance in the fourth quarter, the crude steel production continues to decline for 10 months, the average daily crude steel production has dropped to around 2 million tons in early December. Environmental governance will continue, and steel production level is difficult to rebound significantly, so the supply pressure in the market will be not obvious next month. Besides, the volume of goods arrived is not high, so there is little change in the overall inventory, and traders are still cautious to the market outlook. Up to Friday, the average price of continuous casting non-annealed steel nationwide was still 4756 yuan/ton, the average price of die-casting annealed steel is 7911 yuan/ton, and the prevailing quotations for continuous casting non-annealed steel from the second ranking steel plants in South China remains in the range of 4200 to 4550 yuan/ton.
[Raw material]
The concentrate iron powder market in south runs smoothly while market in north operates in weak trend. Steel mills procure as needed, and market is tepid. Imported ore market stops falling and shows signs of stabilisation. Forward spot goods price firstly stabilized and then rebounds; port spot goods remain the weak trend, mainly sold at low price. Nickel ore price rose slightly and then stays firm. The overall turnover is still not optimistic, but port stocks continue to grow due to the arrivel of ores ordered by factories. Stainless steel scrap market runs smoothly, thinly traded. Pig iron price remains the stable trend, and the turnover situation differs. DRI market continues the weak trend, and the actual turnover remained stable. The offer prices of all varieties remains basically unchanged from last week. Plain carbon steel scrap market is a little weak. East China, North China and Central China all show slight fall in price, mainly in the range of 10-40 yuan/ton. The market reaction is faster in South China, where the price soon rebound 20 yuan after fall. Tangshan billet market operates in weak consolidation, where the billet price overall fell down 30 yuan/ton. PCI coal market continues the upward trend, while smoke-free PCI coal market runs stably with relative good turnover. Anthracite market is stable as a whole, the same with the coal price. Thermal coal market shows the rising trend as whole, and the port thermal coal price begins to fall with the completion of contract negotiations between major coal enterprises and electricity enterprises. Coking coal market runs stably. Although there is no significant fluctuations in the market price, the transaction has been significantly weakened. Imported coal market tends to weak on a stable basis, where the quoted prices of some varieties is clearly downward. Coke market continues the steady upward trend as a whole, and shipments situation turns better. Common alloys and special alloys markets both run in weak tendency; transactions are ordinary. Common alloy market: ferrosilicon prices starts to fall, while transactions are still good.
[Macroeconomic information]
Funds: On Wednesday morning, the interest rate in monetary market fall further. As of 11:30 a.m. on Wednesday, the weighted average interest rate of 7-days pledge-style bond fell 75 basis points to 5.58%. The highest point of repo rate in each period fell sharply compared with yesterday. On Thursday, Bank of China started the window time for 14-days reverse repo.
Investment: Bank of China Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 23 to 24. It was noted in the meeting the need to actively and steadily push forward urbanization, and by 2020, allow approximately 100 million eligible workers who have left agricultural work to gradually become urban residents, and realize the shanty town transformation and urban village renovation involving about 100 million people, and the urbanization in the Midwest areas involving about 1 million people.
Consumption:
Minister of Housing Urban-Rural Development Administration Jiang Weixin said in the "working deployment for the year of 2014" that great efforts shall be made to maintain the continuity and stability of control policies, and perform well the existing control measures. Differentiated housing credit and housing purchase restriction policies shall be strictly implemented in price-soaring cities.
Data: From January to November, industrial enterprises above designated size realized a total profit of 5.3338 trillion yuan, showing 13.2% YoY growth; in the same period, industrial enterprises above designated size realized a total profit of 5.3338 trillion yuan, up 13.2% over last year, and the speed increasing ratio fell 0.5 percentage points. Of which, main activities profit was 5.37007 trillion yuan, with an increase of 4.4% over the same period last year, and the growth rate fell 1 percentage point.
[Market Review]
[East China Region] This week, the bearing steel price in East China market was stable, and the turnover was ordinary. Up to this weekend, the quotations in Hangzhou market are as follows: Xinye GCr15Φ50-70 non-annealed steel was 4,400 yuan/ton; Echeng Steel GCr15Φ30-75 heat-treated non-annealed steel was 4200 yuan/ton; Shanghai No.5 Steel Plant GCr15Φ26-70 heat-treated spheroidizing annealed steel was 7,300 yuan/ton; Xingcheng Steel GCr15Φ50 non-annealed steel was 5,200 yuan/ton, less stock; Nanjing Steel Group GCr15Φ16-40 heat-treated non-annealed steel was 4,400 yuan/ton; Dongbei Special Steel GCr15Φ30-95 hot-rolled non-annealed steel was 4,550 yuan/ton; Shougang Group GCr15Φ50 hot-rolled non-annealed steel was out of stock. This week, the bearing steel price in Wuxi market slightly declined, and the turnover was ordinary. Up to this weekend, the quotations in Wuxi market are as follows: Xingcheng Steel GCr15Φ30-75 hot-rolled non-annealed steel was 5,200 yuan/ton; Xinyegang Steel GCr15Φ30-50 continuous casting annealed steel was 5200-5,250 yuan/ton; Beiman Steel GCr15Φ40-75 heat-treated annealed steel was 5250-5,300 yuan/ton; Wuxi Huarun Steel GCr15Φ50-80 hot-rolled non-annealed steel was 4450 yuan/ton, less stock; Nanjing Steel GCr15Φ50 hot-rolled non-annealed steel was around 4,450 yuan/ton; Dongbei Special Steel GCr15Φ40-75 hot-rolled non-annealed steel was 4600 yuan/ton.
[Central South China Region] This week, the bearing steel price in Luoyang market remained stable, thinly traded. Up to this weekend, the quotations in Luoyang market are as follows: Shijiazhuang Steel GCr15Φ16-50 heat-treated annealed steel was 5,550 yuan/ton and the GCr15Φ16-30 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 4,750 yuan/ton; Xinyegang Steel GCr15Φ50-130 die-casting non-annealed steel was 7,700 yuan/ton, out of stock; Changcheng Special Steel GCr15Φ45 continuous casting annealed steel was 5,550 yuan/ton, out of stock, and the die-casting non-annealed steel was 4,600 yuan/ton; Xining Steel GCr15Φ25-70 continuous casting non-annealed steal was 4,750 yuan/ton. This week, the bearing steel price in Wuhan market was also stable, and the turnover was ordinary. Echeng Steel GCr15Φ14-30 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 4,600 yuan/ton; Xinyegang Steel GCr15Φ80-110 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 5,150 yuan/ton, GCr15Φ40-75 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 5,100 yuan/ton, and the die-casting annealed steel was 7,550 yuan/ton.
[North China Region] This week, the bearing steel price in Shenyang market fell, and the market transaction was ordinary. Up to this weekend, Dongbei Special Steel GCr15Φ25-60 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 4,500 yuan/ton, out of stock; Benxi Steel Φ90-120 continuous casting steel was 4,100 yuan/ton, Benxi Steel GCr15Φ160-180 die-casting annealed steel was 6,600-6,650 yuan/ton. This week, the bearing steel price in Harbin market was flat, and the deal was common. Benxi Steel GCr15Φ20-75 heat-treated annealed steel was 6,500 yuan/ton, out of stock; Dongbei Special Steel GCr15Φ50 heat-treated annealed steel was out of stock; Dongbei Special Steel GCr15Φ40-75 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 4,550 yuan/ton.
[Southwest China Region] This week, the bearing steel price in Chengdu market was stable and the market resources were not sufficient. Up to this weekend, Xinyegang Steel GCr15Φ50 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 4950 yuan/ton, Changcheng Steel GCr15Φ80-130 continuous casting annealed steel was 6,350 yuan/ton; Xining Steel Φ150-200 die-casting annealed steel was 7,800 yuan/ton, out of stock; Xining Steel GCr15Φ30-75 continuous casting annealed steel was 6,300 yuan/ton, less stock. This week, the bearing steel price in Chongqing market remained stable. Donghua Special Steel GCr15Φ20-30 heat-treated annealed steel was out of stock; Xining Steel Φ80-120 rolled annealed steel was 6,350 yuan/ton, out of stock; Changcheng Steel GCr15Φ40-65 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 5,100 yuan/ton; Xining Steel Φ80-150 forged annealed steel was 7,500 yuan/ton, less stock.
[Forecast for next week]
Based on the current market situation, bearing steel market is expected to remain stable in January, and resources is unlikely to pour into market subject to environmental governance, steel production reduction and blocked turnover of raw materials.
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Next Aug 17 Bearing Steel Price in Different Regions of China
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