Bearing steel market will stabilize after hit bottom in April
Resource from: CBCC Likes:151
Apr 25,2014
Overview: In February, the output of crude bearing steel decreased by 22,770 tons QoQ while the same of bearing steel decreased by 2.160 tons, and the export volume fell down 4.4% QoQ. In March, bearing steel price hovered at the bottom.
According the data from CISA, the average daily out of crude steel in key steel enterprises was 1.669 million tons in late March, and 207.3 million tons expected for all steel enterprises, down by 1.3% and 1.1% respectively compared with the same in mid March; the stock of key enterprises in late March was 15.42 million tons, down 5.7% compared with the same in mid March.
I. Output of Bearing Steel
From January to February, 2014, the output of crude bearing steel of major steel companies was 447,800 tons, decreased by 11% yoy; during the same period, the steel output of major special steel companies was 425,200 tons, down 13% yoy. In February, the monthly output of crude bearing steel was 212,500 tons, and the monthly output of bearing steel was 201,800 tons.
Table 1: Domestic Output of Crude Steel by Bearing Steel Manufacturers from January to February in 2014 (Unit: ton)
Seen from Table 1 that the top three for bearing steel output from January to February in 2014 are still Zhongxin Special Steel (Xinye Steel and Xingcheng Special Steel), Dongbei Speical Steel and Juneng Steel. (for Sha Steel, only the yield of Huai Steel is counted; some modifications are made to the statistical method for calculating Baosteel's output). Among these 24 companies, the crude bearing steel ouput of 12 companies rose while 12 fell.
II. Performance of Domestic Bearing Steel Market in March:
(i) The export volume of bearing steel rose QoQ in February 2014
According to the statistical data released by the ten major domestic bearing steel manufacturers, the bearing steel export volume was 9,771 tons in February, 2014, up 7.01% YoY; the cumulative export volume in the same period was 19,997 tons, increased by 1469 tons YoY.
Figure 2: Bearing Steel Export Situation in Major Domestic Special Steel Enterprises from 2013 to 2014
Data Resource: MRI
(ii) The prices in bearing steel market fell slightly in March
The detailed situations of bearing steel markets across the country in March are as follows:
Hangzhou market: the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 4500 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was between 7,800 yuan/ton.
Luoyang market: the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 4,750 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was 7,800 yuan/ton.
Xi'an market: the the spot goods of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 4,900 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was around 7,500 yuan/ton.
As for Shenyang market, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,100 yuan/ton, and the spot goods of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was 6,400 yuan/ton.
Fig. 3 Average price trend of bearing steel from 2013 to 2014
Table 2: Summary of Sales Price of Major Bearing Steel Manufacturers in East China (standard continuous casting non-annealed steel bar) Unit: yuan
According to the statistics from Mysteeel.com: up to the end of January, the average price of GCr15Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel in China was 4,746 yuan/ton; the average price of GCr15Φ100mm die-casting annealed steel was 7,912 yuan/ton. (some modifications applied to the statistical method)
III. Bearing steel market will stabilize after hit bottom
1. Seasonal factor
Traditionally, the bearing steel market will enter the peak season in April, the operating rate in machinery industry will rise, and the demand for bearing steel will be slightly released.
2. Inventory
Steel social stocks in major markets have declined for five consecutive weeks, down 13% over last year.
3. Funds
End-of-season tensions have been eased, Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate fell, and the repo maturity of nearly 458 billion yuan is in April, so traders are optimistic to the market liquidity.
4. Steel PMI
China steel PMI index was 44.2 in March, Hebei Steel PMI index was 47, both showing recovery.
To sum up: Bearing steel market is expected to stabilize after hit bottom in April.
Table 1: Domestic Output of Crude Steel by Bearing Steel Manufacturers from January to February in 2014 (Unit: ton)
Seen from Table 1 that the top three for bearing steel output from January to February in 2014 are still Zhongxin Special Steel (Xinye Steel and Xingcheng Special Steel), Dongbei Speical Steel and Juneng Steel. (for Sha Steel, only the yield of Huai Steel is counted; some modifications are made to the statistical method for calculating Baosteel's output). Among these 24 companies, the crude bearing steel ouput of 12 companies rose while 12 fell.
II. Performance of Domestic Bearing Steel Market in March:
(i) The export volume of bearing steel rose QoQ in February 2014
According to the statistical data released by the ten major domestic bearing steel manufacturers, the bearing steel export volume was 9,771 tons in February, 2014, up 7.01% YoY; the cumulative export volume in the same period was 19,997 tons, increased by 1469 tons YoY.
Figure 2: Bearing Steel Export Situation in Major Domestic Special Steel Enterprises from 2013 to 2014
Data Resource: MRI
(ii) The prices in bearing steel market fell slightly in March
The detailed situations of bearing steel markets across the country in March are as follows:
Hangzhou market: the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 4500 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was between 7,800 yuan/ton.
Luoyang market: the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 4,750 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was 7,800 yuan/ton.
Xi'an market: the the spot goods of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 4,900 yuan/ton, and the average knock-down price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was around 7,500 yuan/ton.
As for Shenyang market, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was from 4,100 yuan/ton, and the spot goods of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was 6,400 yuan/ton.
Fig. 3 Average price trend of bearing steel from 2013 to 2014
Table 2: Summary of Sales Price of Major Bearing Steel Manufacturers in East China (standard continuous casting non-annealed steel bar) Unit: yuan
According to the statistics from Mysteeel.com: up to the end of January, the average price of GCr15Φ50mm continuous casting non-annealed steel in China was 4,746 yuan/ton; the average price of GCr15Φ100mm die-casting annealed steel was 7,912 yuan/ton. (some modifications applied to the statistical method)
III. Bearing steel market will stabilize after hit bottom
1. Seasonal factor
Traditionally, the bearing steel market will enter the peak season in April, the operating rate in machinery industry will rise, and the demand for bearing steel will be slightly released.
2. Inventory
Steel social stocks in major markets have declined for five consecutive weeks, down 13% over last year.
3. Funds
End-of-season tensions have been eased, Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate fell, and the repo maturity of nearly 458 billion yuan is in April, so traders are optimistic to the market liquidity.
4. Steel PMI
China steel PMI index was 44.2 in March, Hebei Steel PMI index was 47, both showing recovery.
To sum up: Bearing steel market is expected to stabilize after hit bottom in April.
(CBCC)
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1.The news above mentioned with detailed source are from internet.We are trying our best to assure they are accurate ,timely and safe so as to let bearing users and sellers read more related info.However, it doesn't mean we agree with any point of view referred in above contents and we are not responsible for the authenticity. If you want to publish the news,please note the source and you will be legally responsible for the news published.
2.All news edited and translated by us are specially noted the source"CBCC".
3.For investors,please be cautious for all news.We don't bear any damage brought by late and inaccurate news.
4.If the news we published involves copyright of yours,just let us know.
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