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Bearing steel market will remain in low status in May

Resource from:  CBCC Likes:150
May 26,2014
Overview: In March, the output of crude bearing steel decreased by 25,000 tons QoQ while the same of the bearing steel increased by 3.7 tons, and the export volume fell down 41.78% QoQ. In April, bearing steel price hovered at the bottom. According to the data released from China Steel Association, the average daily crude steel production of key enterprises was 1,749,400 tons in mid-April, and the estimated crude steel output was 2,280,200 tons, increased by 5.98 % QoQ; inventories of key enterprises was 15,814,900 tons, increased by 656,000 tons and 4.5% QoQ. The prices of ore and other raw materials still faced the downward pressure in May, thus had little support on the steel market; the daily average output of crude steel increased, indicating the increase in supply pressures later. Thus the bearing steel market is expected to stay low in May. I. Output of Bearing Steel From January to March, 2014, the output of crude bearing steel of major steel companies was 70,580 tons, decreased by 11% yoy; during the same period, the steel output of major special steel companies was 664,400 tons, down 9.78% yoy. In March, the monthly output of crude bearing steel was 210,000 tons, and the monthly output of bearing steel was 239,200 tons. Table 1: Domestic Output of Crude Steel by Bearing Steel Manufacturers from January to March in 2014 (Unit: ton) Seen from Table 1 that the top three for bearing steel output from January to March in 2014 are Zhongxin Special Steel (Xinye Steel and Xingcheng Special Steel), Dongbei Speical Steel and Juneng Steel. (for Sha Steel, only the yield of Huai Steel is counted; some modifications are made to the statistical method for calculating Baosteel's output). Among these 21 companies, the crude bearing steel ouput of 11 companies rose while 10 fell. II. Performance of Domestic Bearing Steel Market in April: (i) The export volume of bearing steel fell QoQ in March 2014 According to the statistical data released by the ten major domestic bearing steel manufacturers, the bearing steel export volume was 9,281 tons in March, 2014, down 41.78% YoY; the cumulative export volume in the same period was 29,278 tons, decreased by 5,191 tons YoY. Figure 2: Bearing Steel Export Situation in Major Domestic Special Steel Enterprises from 2013 to 2014 Data Resource: MRI (ii) The prices in bearing steel market fell slightly in March The detailed situations of bearing steel markets across the country in April are as follows: Hangzhou market: the prevailing price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 4500 yuan/ton. Luoyang market: the prevailing price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 4,750 yuan/ton, and the prevailing price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was 7,800 yuan/ton. Xi'an market: the quoted price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 4,900 yuan/ton. As for Shenyang market, the average knock-down price of standard GCr15 continuous casting non-annealed steel was 4,100 yuan/ton, and the quoted price of GCr15 die-casting annealed steel was 6,400 yuan/ton. Table 2: Summary of Sales Price of Major Bearing Steel Manufacturers in East China (standard continuous casting non-annealed steel bar) Unit: yuan Data PMI index HSBC China Manufacturing PMI was 48.3 in April, up 0.3 over the end value of March, ending the decline trend that has continued for five consecutive months. Development Index Development index was 9.69 % in 21 March, down 10.47 % over the index during January and February. The overall economic growth appeared weak. Liquidity The above-scale industrial enterprises realized a total profit of 513.16 billion yuan in March, with an increase of 10.7% yoy, up 1.3% over the same in January-February. Machinery Industry The mechanical industrial added value in January-March has dropped to 11.8% from 12.7% reported in January-February; the growth in the month of March is only 10.4%. In summary, the bearing steel market is expected to stay low in May.
(CBCC)
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