Bearing steel market will remain in consolidation mode in February
Resource from: CBCC Likes:137
Mar 30,2015
This month, the price of bearing steel continued to dip, mainly down by 50-80 yuan/ton. Up to now, the price of low-end continuous non-annealed casting material is around 3150 yuan/ton (accepted); mid-range materials 3250 yuan/ton (accepted); high-end materials 4300 yuan/ton (accepted); forgings 5800 yuan/ton (accepted).
Many believe that the bearing steel market will remain in consolidation mode in February. For one hand, the prices of raw materials represented by ore and steel billet will further decline and can not stablize in the short term, which help reduce the cost of bearing steel manufacturing. For another, as the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, the downstream demand is gradually weakening, resulting in sales pressure.
I. Bearing Steel Markets
1. Output
(i) In December, the outputs of crude steel and bearing steel continued to decline year on year
According to the statistics of Special Steel Association, from January to December 2014, the bearing crude steel output of domestic major steel companies was 2.9271 million tons, with a 2.95% decrease over the same period last year; in the same period, the steel output of domestic major steel companies was 2.8557 million tons, showing a decrease of 2.65% over the same period last year. Wherein, the monthly production of bearing crude steel in December was 220,900 tons; steel production was 216,500 tons. For details, see Figure 1:
(ii) Production scheduling in February: slight drop in output
According to a survey on 33 domestic bearing steel production enterprises, the total output of bearing steel in February is estimated at 241,800 tons. Details seen in the table below:
According to the survey, Zenith Steel planed a 28-day furnace maintenance, affecting a yield loss of 65,000 tons; Xiwang Steel carried out the trail production of a new high-end bearing steel, the others have no maintenance plans. Meanwhile, as the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, most steel mills were under sales pressure, so they mainly preferred to drop production.
2. Export: exports volume slightly increased in December
The export volume of steel bearing in December was 10,740 tons, up by 4.29 YoY%, and 26.49 MoM%. From January to December, the total volume of steel bearing was 135,039 tons, representing an increase of 11.41%.
3. Bearing steel price in February: dropped by 50-80 yuan/ton
Bearing steel markets continued the depressed state in February, so market turnover was also light. Steel mills cut the ex-factory price by nearly 50-120 yuan/ton.
II. Relevant Markets
1. Raw materials market still in the low-price operation
(i) Iron ore
(ii) Steel scrap
(iii) High carbon ferro-chrome
Although the imported ore index rebounded slightly in January, the whole month average price still fell by 4.63 % over the previous month; the price of carbon steel scrap continued to fall, and the whole month average price fell by 6.84 % over the previous month; the price of high carbon ferrochrome continued consolidation at the bottom, about 6592 yuan/ton. It is predicted that raw material prices has limited space to fall in February.
2. Downstream markets
(i) Rolling bearings
The output of rolling bearings was 1,760,498,000 sets in December, decreased by 69,138,400 units compared with November, up by 4.09%. The total output of bearings was 18,720,784,000 sets from January to December, 2014.
(ii) Crop harvesting machinery
The output of crop harvest machinery was 83,514 sets in December, decreased by 115,19 sets compared with November, increased by 16.0% MoM. The total output of the same was 773,676 sets from January to December, 2014.
(iii) Motorcycles
According to the statistical analysis of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the output and sales of motorcycles both decreased MoM in December 2014; from January to December, the output and sales were 21,267,800 sets and 21,294,400 sets, respectively falling by 7.08% and 7.59% over the previous year, hitting the new year low since 2007.
(4) Automobiles
According to the statistical analysis of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the output and sales of automobiles was generally stable in December 2014, increased MoM. From January to December, the increase in the output and sales of automobiles showed a slight decline over the first 11 months.
The above data showed that the downstream industry was still in the vulnerable situation.
III. Conclusions
1. The prices of raw materials represented by iron ores were in low consolidation in February;
2. Downstream demand was still poor, so steel mills received fewer orders;
3. There arose the demand for the funds return as traders were facing funding constraints;
Bearing steel market is expected to run in weak consolidation in February 2015. Some steel mills may cut price by 50 yuan/ton.
(ii) Production scheduling in February: slight drop in output
According to a survey on 33 domestic bearing steel production enterprises, the total output of bearing steel in February is estimated at 241,800 tons. Details seen in the table below:
According to the survey, Zenith Steel planed a 28-day furnace maintenance, affecting a yield loss of 65,000 tons; Xiwang Steel carried out the trail production of a new high-end bearing steel, the others have no maintenance plans. Meanwhile, as the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, most steel mills were under sales pressure, so they mainly preferred to drop production.
2. Export: exports volume slightly increased in December
The export volume of steel bearing in December was 10,740 tons, up by 4.29 YoY%, and 26.49 MoM%. From January to December, the total volume of steel bearing was 135,039 tons, representing an increase of 11.41%.
3. Bearing steel price in February: dropped by 50-80 yuan/ton
Bearing steel markets continued the depressed state in February, so market turnover was also light. Steel mills cut the ex-factory price by nearly 50-120 yuan/ton.
II. Relevant Markets
1. Raw materials market still in the low-price operation
(i) Iron ore
(ii) Steel scrap
(iii) High carbon ferro-chrome
Although the imported ore index rebounded slightly in January, the whole month average price still fell by 4.63 % over the previous month; the price of carbon steel scrap continued to fall, and the whole month average price fell by 6.84 % over the previous month; the price of high carbon ferrochrome continued consolidation at the bottom, about 6592 yuan/ton. It is predicted that raw material prices has limited space to fall in February.
2. Downstream markets
(i) Rolling bearings
The output of rolling bearings was 1,760,498,000 sets in December, decreased by 69,138,400 units compared with November, up by 4.09%. The total output of bearings was 18,720,784,000 sets from January to December, 2014.
(ii) Crop harvesting machinery
The output of crop harvest machinery was 83,514 sets in December, decreased by 115,19 sets compared with November, increased by 16.0% MoM. The total output of the same was 773,676 sets from January to December, 2014.
(iii) Motorcycles
According to the statistical analysis of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the output and sales of motorcycles both decreased MoM in December 2014; from January to December, the output and sales were 21,267,800 sets and 21,294,400 sets, respectively falling by 7.08% and 7.59% over the previous year, hitting the new year low since 2007.
(4) Automobiles
According to the statistical analysis of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the output and sales of automobiles was generally stable in December 2014, increased MoM. From January to December, the increase in the output and sales of automobiles showed a slight decline over the first 11 months.
The above data showed that the downstream industry was still in the vulnerable situation.
III. Conclusions
1. The prices of raw materials represented by iron ores were in low consolidation in February;
2. Downstream demand was still poor, so steel mills received fewer orders;
3. There arose the demand for the funds return as traders were facing funding constraints;
Bearing steel market is expected to run in weak consolidation in February 2015. Some steel mills may cut price by 50 yuan/ton.
(CBCC)
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1.The news above mentioned with detailed source are from internet.We are trying our best to assure they are accurate ,timely and safe so as to let bearing users and sellers read more related info.However, it doesn't mean we agree with any point of view referred in above contents and we are not responsible for the authenticity. If you want to publish the news,please note the source and you will be legally responsible for the news published.
2.All news edited and translated by us are specially noted the source"CBCC".
3.For investors,please be cautious for all news.We don't bear any damage brought by late and inaccurate news.
4.If the news we published involves copyright of yours,just let us know.
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