Bearing steel market may fluctuate slightly in June
Resource from: CBCC Likes:169
Jun 12,2015
Overview: The output of crude steel increased by 22.83% yoy in the first four months, while the same of bearing steel increased by 1.04% yoy. Exports fell 4.6%. Bearing steel price was steady in May, demand released slowly. Steel mills had increased pressure on stocks, and due to the problem of oversupply, traders mainly suffered from sales sinking. Downward pressure on raw materials prices remained in June, so steel prices will find little support from the former; daily output of crude steel increased, indicating an increase in the post-market supply pressure.
I. Market conditions
1. Output
(i) YoY increase in output of crude steel and bearing steel (from January to April)
According to the statistics of Special Steel Association, from January to February 2015, the total output of crude steel from domestic major steel companies was 0.9432 million tons, increased by 22.83% over the same period last year; in the same period, the total output of bearing steel from domestic major steel companies was 0.9126 million tons, increased by 1.04% over the same period last year. For details, see Figure 1:
(ii) Either increase and decrease in finished product output from major bearing steel manufacturers (from January to April)
Seen from Table 1 that the top three for bearing steel output from January to April in 2015 are Zhongxin Special Steel (Xinye Steel and Xingcheng Special Steel), Dongbei Speical Steel and Juneng Steel. (for Sha Steel, only the yield of Huai Steel is counted). Among these 23 companies, the crude bearing steel ouput of 7 companies rose while 14 fell, 2 not in production.
2. Export: exports rose slightly in April
Exports of bearing steel was 9545 tons in April, increased by 9.8% yoy while decreased by 5.8% mom. Total export in the first four months was 36,241 tons, representing a reduction of 4.6% over the same period last year.
3. Bearing steel price policy in May: stable
II. Relevant Markets
1. Raw materials prices
(i) Iron ore
(ii) Steel scrap
(iii) High carbon ferro-chrome
Import ore market was dominated by shock fall in May, with prices floating between 58-62 dollars, 61.75 dollars by the end of this month. The prices of carbon steel scraps stayed in uneven session, arriving at approximately 1328 yuan/ton by end of May. The whole month average price declined slightly compared with last month. The average price of high carbon ferrochrome fell slightly, ended down around 6573 yuan/ton. It is predicted that the raw material prices will hardly rise in June, and some regions still have room for further downside.
2. Downstream markets
(i) Rolling bearings
The output of rolling bearings was 1,507,710,000 units in April, showing a 1.78 % increase compared with 314,813,340,000 units in March.
(ii) Motorcycles
According to the statistical analysis of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the output and sales of motorcycles increased mom but decreased yoy in April 2015; the output and sales in the first four months were accumulated to 6,252,100 units and 6,269,300 units, down by 8% yoy. In April, the output and sales in motorcycle sector was respectively 1,692,800 units and 1,664,400 units, showing a mom growth of 4.46% and 2%, and a yoy decrease of 7.98% and 8.57%. Wherein, the output and sales of two-wheeled motorcycles was respectively 1.479 million units and 1.4555 million units, showing a mom growth of 4.1% and 1.75%, and a yoy decrease of 9.46% and 9.83%; the same of three-wheeled motorcycles was respectively 213,800 units and 209,000 units, showing a mom growth of 7.01 % and 3.74 %, and a yoy increase of 3.75% and 1.3%.
(iii) Automobiles
According to the statistical analysis of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the output and sales of automobiles both fell yoy in April. The growth of output and sales slowed in the first four months. The output of automobiles in April was 2,079,700 units, down by 8.93% mom, up by 0.59 % yoy. The sales of automobiles in April was 1,994,500 units, showing a decline of 10.98% mom and 0.49% yoy. Wherein, the output of passenger vehicles was 1,754,100 units, fell by 9.04% mom, and up by 5.20% yoy; the sales of passenger vehicles was 1,668,800 units, fell by 10.78 % mom, and up by 3.72% yoy. The output of commercial vehicles was 325,600 units, fell by 8.29% mom, and up by 18.63% yoy; sales of 325,700, a decline of 12.02 percent, down 17.61 percent; the sales of commercial vehicles was 325,700 units, fell by 12.02% mom, and up by 17.61%.
III. Conclusions
Market weakness has not improved, and the real economy is no good as expected. The problem of excess production becomes particularly serious based on the current economic slowdown, which has caused great pressure on the market chain. We can feel that now the needs improving is very slow, and no signs of improvement have been seen in the appliance, automotive and other downstream industries.
Due to the slow release of market demand, coupled with the increased pressure on steel stocks, bearing steel market is expected to remain in weak shock in June, and the downstream demand remained weak.
(ii) Either increase and decrease in finished product output from major bearing steel manufacturers (from January to April)
Seen from Table 1 that the top three for bearing steel output from January to April in 2015 are Zhongxin Special Steel (Xinye Steel and Xingcheng Special Steel), Dongbei Speical Steel and Juneng Steel. (for Sha Steel, only the yield of Huai Steel is counted). Among these 23 companies, the crude bearing steel ouput of 7 companies rose while 14 fell, 2 not in production.
2. Export: exports rose slightly in April
Exports of bearing steel was 9545 tons in April, increased by 9.8% yoy while decreased by 5.8% mom. Total export in the first four months was 36,241 tons, representing a reduction of 4.6% over the same period last year.
3. Bearing steel price policy in May: stable
II. Relevant Markets
1. Raw materials prices
(i) Iron ore
(ii) Steel scrap
(iii) High carbon ferro-chrome
Import ore market was dominated by shock fall in May, with prices floating between 58-62 dollars, 61.75 dollars by the end of this month. The prices of carbon steel scraps stayed in uneven session, arriving at approximately 1328 yuan/ton by end of May. The whole month average price declined slightly compared with last month. The average price of high carbon ferrochrome fell slightly, ended down around 6573 yuan/ton. It is predicted that the raw material prices will hardly rise in June, and some regions still have room for further downside.
2. Downstream markets
(i) Rolling bearings
The output of rolling bearings was 1,507,710,000 units in April, showing a 1.78 % increase compared with 314,813,340,000 units in March.
(ii) Motorcycles
According to the statistical analysis of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the output and sales of motorcycles increased mom but decreased yoy in April 2015; the output and sales in the first four months were accumulated to 6,252,100 units and 6,269,300 units, down by 8% yoy. In April, the output and sales in motorcycle sector was respectively 1,692,800 units and 1,664,400 units, showing a mom growth of 4.46% and 2%, and a yoy decrease of 7.98% and 8.57%. Wherein, the output and sales of two-wheeled motorcycles was respectively 1.479 million units and 1.4555 million units, showing a mom growth of 4.1% and 1.75%, and a yoy decrease of 9.46% and 9.83%; the same of three-wheeled motorcycles was respectively 213,800 units and 209,000 units, showing a mom growth of 7.01 % and 3.74 %, and a yoy increase of 3.75% and 1.3%.
(iii) Automobiles
According to the statistical analysis of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the output and sales of automobiles both fell yoy in April. The growth of output and sales slowed in the first four months. The output of automobiles in April was 2,079,700 units, down by 8.93% mom, up by 0.59 % yoy. The sales of automobiles in April was 1,994,500 units, showing a decline of 10.98% mom and 0.49% yoy. Wherein, the output of passenger vehicles was 1,754,100 units, fell by 9.04% mom, and up by 5.20% yoy; the sales of passenger vehicles was 1,668,800 units, fell by 10.78 % mom, and up by 3.72% yoy. The output of commercial vehicles was 325,600 units, fell by 8.29% mom, and up by 18.63% yoy; sales of 325,700, a decline of 12.02 percent, down 17.61 percent; the sales of commercial vehicles was 325,700 units, fell by 12.02% mom, and up by 17.61%.
III. Conclusions
Market weakness has not improved, and the real economy is no good as expected. The problem of excess production becomes particularly serious based on the current economic slowdown, which has caused great pressure on the market chain. We can feel that now the needs improving is very slow, and no signs of improvement have been seen in the appliance, automotive and other downstream industries.
Due to the slow release of market demand, coupled with the increased pressure on steel stocks, bearing steel market is expected to remain in weak shock in June, and the downstream demand remained weak.
(CBCC)
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1.The news above mentioned with detailed source are from internet.We are trying our best to assure they are accurate ,timely and safe so as to let bearing users and sellers read more related info.However, it doesn't mean we agree with any point of view referred in above contents and we are not responsible for the authenticity. If you want to publish the news,please note the source and you will be legally responsible for the news published.
2.All news edited and translated by us are specially noted the source"CBCC".
3.For investors,please be cautious for all news.We don't bear any damage brought by late and inaccurate news.
4.If the news we published involves copyright of yours,just let us know.
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