Bearing steel market will begin to revive in March
2. Planning & Scheduling in March 2016: increased or decreased
According to a random investigation conducted by the writer on the output of several large domestic bearing steel mills this month, steel stocks rose further during the Spring Festival, the same with the selling pressure. Some of the steel mills cut their production while others delayed orders. Coupled with the bullish market outlook, production scheduling increased as a whole. The details are shown in the following table:
II. Bearing Steel Markets
1. Bearing steel exports dropped slightly in January
According to the statistics from domestic 10 major bearing steel production enterprises: Domestic bearing steel export was 122,020 tons in January, increased by 52.41% YoY while decreased by 5.59% MoM. Seen from Figure 2 that the top three on the list of bearing steel export volume are still Xingcheng Special Steel, Daye Speical Steel and Dongbei Speical Steel.
Wherein, Xingcheng Special Steel reported the largest export volume of bearing steel, 11,963 tons, accounting for the vast majority of bearing steel exports.
2. Bearing steel market will take on a steady rise in February
Market confidence gradually increased after the Spring Festival holiday. Bearing steel prices have been driven up by the further rise in the market price of extra-fine steels, and maintains a strong momentum. Most bearing steel manufacturers raised the price, mainly in the range of 100 yuan/ton. Based on the current market trend and considering that March is the peak demand season, the bearing steel price is expected to keep rising.
III. Relevant Markets
1. Raw materials market
Imported ore price greatly increased in February, closed at 49.5 dollar/ton at the end of the month from 42.6 dollar/ton last month; the price of carbon steel scrap price slightly increased, closed at 988 yuan/ton by the end of the month, up by 3.54% over the previous month; the price of high carbon ferrochrome was slightly adjusted nationwide, closed at 5023 yuan/ton by the end of the month. Combined with the current supply and demand situation and the strong rising trend in steel market, the price of raw material is more likely to continue the stable rising trend in March.
2. Downstream market
According to the statistical analysis of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the output and sales of automobiles slightly decreased MoM, yet increased YoY.
Output and sales performance of main products: passenger vehicles fell below the industry average level MoM, yet higher than the industry average level YoY; commercial vehicles decreased both MoM and YoY, wherein, the decline of MoM sales was more obvious. In January, the output of automobiles was 2.452 million units, showing a 7.68% MoM decline and a 7.14% YoY rise; the sales of automobiles was 2,500,600 units, showing a 10.23% MoM decline and a 7.72% YoY rise.
IV. Conclusions
Bearing steel price steadily rose in February, but the downstream demand remained weak. After the Spring Festival, bearing steel mills raised prices due to the rise of raw material prices, costs and other multi-factors. The overall performance in steel market is poor this year, but market participants have great confidence in the market outlook, which will have some effect on the demand in bearing steel market. The price of raw materials continues to rise, which raises the cost of production, thus supports the future price of bearing steel. Besides, some steel mills have been receiving orders, Xingcheng Special Steel, Baosteel Special Steel and Beiman Special Steel, for example, which increases some confidence in rasing prices.
Taken together, the bearing steel price is expected to keep rising in March, but the rate of increase will not be great at current macroeconomic pressure.
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Next Aug 17 Bearing Steel Price in Different Regions of China
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