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Bearing steel price will fluctuate on high level in May

Resource from:  CBCC Likes:120
May 20,2016
Overview From January to March, the output of crude steel decreased by 12.05% YoY, the output of bearing steel decreased by 8.70% YoY, and the export volume increased by 69.81% YoY. Bearing steel price rose strongly in April, especially the low and medium-grade materials, the prices of which mainly rose by 500 yuan/ton an above, which was unusual over the years. Up to now, the price of low-grade continuous casting non-annealed steel was 3400 yuan/ton; the price of medium-grade resources was 3800 yuan/ton; and the price of high-end resources was 4400 yuan/ton. Bearing steel steel prices kept rising due to the sharp rise in futures, steels and other materials in fringe markets. Market prices follow the rise of ex-factory prices. The earnings of steel mills improved, with possibile increase in output next month. However, bearing steel price is expected to fluctuate on high level in May due to the support of steel costs and the influence of Tangshan International Horticulture Exposition. I. Bearing Steel Output 1. Output from January to March: crude bearing steel and bearing steel both declined year-on-year According to the statistics of Special Steel Association, from January to March in 2016, the output of bearing crude steel reported by domestic major steel companies was 620,100 tons, decreased by 12.05% over the same period last year; in the same period, the steel output of domestic major steel companies was 626,300 tons, decreased by 8.70% over the same period last year. For details, see Figure 1: 2. Output of finished bearing steel from January to March: decreased YoY as reported by the majority of steel mills Seen from Table 1 that the top three for bearing steel output from January to March 2016 are still Zhongxin Special Steel (Xinye Steel and Xingcheng Special Steel), Juneng Steel and Dongbei Speical Steel. (for Sha Steel, only the yield of Huai Steel is counted). Among these 20 companies, 6 reported increase in the crude bearing steel ouput, 13 companies reduced output and 1 was out of production. Juneng Steel, Benxi Steel, Nanjing Steel and Jianlong Steel all increased the putput sue to the improvement in profitability. II. Bearing Steel Markets 1. Bearing steel exports increased slightly in March According to the statistics from domestic 8 major bearing steel production enterprises: Domestic bearing steel export was 13,415 tons in March, decreased by 182 tons, increased by 31.28% YoY and 1.34% MoM. Seen from Figure 2 that the top three on the list of bearing steel export volume are still Xingcheng Special Steel, Daye Speical Steel and Dongbei Speical Steel. Wherein, Xingcheng Special Steel reported the largest export volume of bearing steel, 12,433 tons, accounting for the vast majority of bearing steel exports. 2. Bearing steel market rose sharply in April Domestic bearing steel mills pulled up the ex-factory prices sharply in April. BaoSteel Special Steel and Xincheng Special Steel increased their price by 200 yuan/ton while Benxi Steel, Nanjing Steel, Juneng Steel and Zenith Steel and other steel mills pulled up the prices in the range of 500 to 600 yuan/ton, the highest in nearly 24 months. III. Relevant Markets 1. Raw materials market Imported ore price ran in consolidation in April, closed at 62.5 dollar/ton by the end of the month; the price of carbon steel scrap was on the rise, closed at 1480 yuan/ton by the end of the month, up by 30.74% over the previous month; the price of high carbon ferrochrome was slightly adjusted nationwide, closed at 5423 yuan/ton by the end of the month. Combined with the current supply and demand situation, steel mills are making higher profits, and the demand for production is relatively strong. Especially, the large-scale steel enterprises now show higher production resuming rate. Raw material prices may rise further for relatively limited increase in steel inventories, but the possibility of slight decline in consolidation after sharp rise still exists. 2. Downstream market According to the statistical analysis of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the output and sales of automobiles both increased YoY and MoM in March, with the YoY increase higher than the same period last year. From January to March, auto market maintained steady growth, with increase in both in sales and output over the same period last year. In March, auto production was 2,520,600 units, increased by 56.38% MoM and 10.26% YoY; the sales was 2,439,700, increased by 54.31% MoM and 8.76% YoY. From January to March, the the output and sales of automobiles were 6.5905 million and 6.5267 million, up by 0.92% and 2.08% YoY. IV. Conclusions A seminar participated by major bearing steel production enterprises was held in Nanjing Steel in the middle of this month,where participants made presentations about their orders, production and operation conditions in April and May. It is reported that major steel mills experienced great improvement in receiving orders compared with the previous month, so was the profitability, which boosted their confidence in the market outlook. Bearing steel steel prices kept rising due to the sharp rise in futures, most of steel mills raised their prices by 500-600 yuan/ton. Although production has been back on track, and gradually enlarges, the pressure on stock will be much larger than the previous. However, bearing steel price is expected to fluctuate on high level in May due to the support of steel costs and the influence of Tangshan International Horticulture Exposition.
(CBCC)
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