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2017 China Bearing Steel Market in April Will be relatively stable

Resource from:  CBCC Likes:139
May 09,2017
Summary: According to the data of year-on-year growth for January and February: the yields of Chinese crude bearing steel increased by 22.69%; Bearing steel increased by 20.97%, and the export on the contrary decreased by 37.58%. Turn back to the bearing steel market of March, the price was stable, and even the price of some lower and middle standard material decreased a little bit. The demand was not so strong than before. For the time being the lowest price for casting unannealed material is 4350RMB/ton, the price for the middle is 4800RMB/ton and the highest is 5800RMB/ton. Considering the capacity release policy is still ongoing for all the steel companies, furthermore, the storage can not be digested in short time. We estimated that the market turmoil for April bearing steel will be weak. 1.The Domestic Yields of Bearing Steel 1.1 Yields of January and February: Crude bearing steel and bearing steel were all increased comparing to last year. As the data shows from China Steel, from January to February of 2017, the yields for crude bearing steel reach to 497,200 tons, which increased by 22.69% year-on-year growth. The yields for bearing steel meets 500,000tons, which increased by 20.97% year-on-year growth. Details are shown in image 1: 1.2 The complete bearing yields of manufacturers from January to February: increased year-on-year growth. As we can see from image 2,the yields from ZHONGXING Bearing Steel(XINYE and XINCHENG), JUNENG and BENTE are the three companies ahead of others, and these three contributes 61% of the yields.The total yields of bearing steel was growing, especially for ZHONGXING Bearing Steel, ZHONGTE and South Bearing Steel year-on-year growth. 2.Performance of China Bearing Steel Market 2.1 The Export of Bearing Steel declined year-on-year growth on February Resources from 10 China bearing steel manufacturers:on February, the export quantity of bearing steel was 5487tons, down 1287tons than last month.The volume decreased by 37.58% year-on-year and also decreased by 13.17% comparing the last year. Image 3 shows the difference of the export since 2016, now the exporters mainly centered by XINGCHENG, DAYE and Northeast. And XINCHENG contributes most of the volume at 8054tons, also the biggest. 2.2 The Market Price of Bearing Steel Was Stable in March The market price of bearing steel was stable in March,The price of some lower and middle standard materials decreased a little bit. If the price is not stable, retail market can not be active than before, most of the purchasers will observing and not intend to buy, and it will take some time before they make the choice. Though demanding will affect the price, it can not determine it and last too long. Besides, the capacity release policy is still ongoing for all the steel companies, furthermore, the storage can not be digested in short time. We estimated that the market turmoil for April bearing steel will be weak. 3.Related Market Information 3.1 Crude Materials Price In March, the imported price of minerals dropped to 81.5dollars/ton. While the market price general carbon and steel scrap climbed to 1507RMB/ton, which was decreased by 4.38% comparing with last month. There was some adjustments to the price of high carbon ferrochrome, the average price was 10237RMB/ton at the end of this month. All in all, the demand is coming down, and the supply far more beyond the demand. So in April, the bearing steel will also take the burden from the materials. 3.2 Related Industries Statistics from China Automobile Industry Association: February, 2017, the overall sales volume was negative because influences from the vacation, but it’s increasing year-on-year . From January to February, both auto production and sales are increasing in a higher rate than last year. In February, the yields of autos reach to 2,159,600 units, the result is declined by 8.84% comparing with last year, and increased by 33.77% year-on-year . Sales volume reaches to 1,939,200units, the result declined by 23.03% comparing with last year, and increased by 22.37% year-on-year . In the month of January, both yields and sales volume is 4,529,000units and 4,459,100units in February. It is increased by 11.07% and 8.84% year-on-year growth. 4.Conclusion Turn back to March, the steel market was not so energetic, many adjustments can not meet the real expectation. And the bearing steel market is also affected, some market price even started to drop. What’s more, the price difference between GCr15 and 45# carbon steel was huge,up to 800-1000RMB/ton. That’s why the retail market was not so active and many buyers are observing the market but not make final choice. Although this is the hot season, for the increasing procurement costs, and too much cash pressure,they all influence the purchasing. Many bearing steel manufacturers are not willing to cut production or stop production,that’s the reason supply pasts demand incredibly. For the fact that demand can not determine the price, To pursue too much profits for the steel companies will be more destructive for the market and it will bring down the price in the future. If the manufacturers can not release their capacity and digest their storage timely, there will be lots of pressure even cut down the price. Totally, the demand and supply are not balanced in traditional hot season, there will be some adjustments of the price, but the market turmoil will be weak.
(CBCC)
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