Weekly Review of Bearing Steel Market in China ( 5th, Jan to 12th, Jan,2018)

Weekly Review of Bearing Steel Market in China ( 5th, Jan to 12th, Jan,2018)

I.Macro News

China Market News

2018 China's economic top ten predictions: the central bank is unlikely to raise the benchmark interest rate

In 2018, the world economy will continue to maintain its momentum of overall recovery and provide a relatively favorable external environment for China's foreign trade and investment. In 2018, China's export growth will pick up, investment growth will slow down and consumption growth will be stable. In the future, economic growth will generally be stable with a low inflation rate; monetary credit will maintain a reasonable growth rate; fluctuations in the exchange rate of RMB will be relatively convergent; the tone of the regulatory policies on the real estate market will remain unchanged; the proactive fiscal policy will be followed and the monetary policy will be strengthened to highlight the neutral tone. Despite the acceleration in the quality of economic growth, the impact of normalisation of monetary policy in advanced economies, protectionism and the arrival of tax cuts in the us should be actively addressed.

Steel prices continued to fall

Since mid-to-late December 2017, steel price has been on a continuous decline mode with a larger decrease. As of January 8, the average price of Grade 3 rebar was RMB4,158 / t, down 57yuan / t from the previous trading day and down 230pts / t in the week. Among them, Beijing, Tianjin and other places prices fell below 4,000 yuan / ton. The industry said that winter is the off-season steel consumption, coupled with the winter stock market failed to start, the market demand dropped significantly. The blast furnace operating rates and steel stocks continued to rise, resulting in steel prices fell in 2018 started. However, as steel prices continued to fall, the timing of storage was gradually approaching.

International News

Vietnam Steel Association called for the government to impose a tough anti-dumping duties on steel in the United States

Vietnam Steel Association (VSA) hopes the Vietnamese government will take a tough stance on the United States anti-dumping duties on some Vietnamese steel exports to the United States. If necessary, the case may even be considered as a trade dispute for WTO arbitration. The Vietnam Iron and Steel Institute also requested the Ministry of Industry and Trade to take measures to support domestic steel companies in responding to the U.S. investigation of illegal tax avoidance against galvanized sheet and cold rolled coil produced in Vietnam. The media said the United States imposed anti-dumping duties on the wire imported from South Africa and Ukraine

According to the Shipper magazine, the U.S. Department of Commerce has decided to impose anti-dumping duties on general carbon and alloy wires imported from South Africa and Ukraine. Shipper reported that in the Ministry of Commerce's Ukrainian anti-dumping investigation, ArcelorMittal Kryvyi RihOJSC and Public Joint Stock Co. (PJSC) Yenakiyeve Steel levied a 44.03% anti-dumping duty on the grounds in that the two companies failed to cooperate with the investigation.

II.Raw material and ferroalloy market

The price of Raw material and ferroalloy market

This week, among the five categories of raw materials, the prices of scrap steel，pig iron and coke declined, imported ore rose,domestic ore remained flat. The main ferroalloy high chromium, ferromolybdenum and ferrovanadium rose. Silica and high-manganese declined. Tungsten iron and high chromium remained flat.

2.1 Price of five raw materials(unit: RMB yuan/ton )

Form 1: Price Comparison of Five Raw Materials by Week and by Month

Remark: the data of imported ore come from 63% of Indian ore in Tianjin ports; the data of domestic ore is from 66% of Hebei iron power; the data of pig iron is from the average price including tax of pig iron for steel making ;The data of scrap steel is from the average price including tax of of scrap steel of 6-8mm thick; the data of coke from the ex-factory price (including tax) of the secondary metallurgical coke of Tangshan. 

2.2 Prices of Ferroalloy (unit: RMB yuan/ton )

Form 2: Price Comparison of Ferroalloy by Week and by Month

III.Price Index Trend of China Special Steel

1. Up to 8nd December , the price index of special steel reached to 128, 2.92% down over last week and up 8.89% over last month.

2. Synthetic index of carbon steel and gear steel , bearing steel keep decreasing, spring steel and die steel remain flat.

3. According to the trend of price index, the price of special steel will weak next week.

Remark:

1. Mysteel-sspic（Mysteel-Special Steel Price Index of china is a set of price index of special steel launched by Mysteel.com representing the consumption and operation of special steel market.

2. The seven categories of steel adapted by Synthetic index are based on 45 # (Φ 20) carbon structural steel, alloy structural steel 40 Cr (Φ 20), 20 CrMnTi gear steel, spring steel 60 Si2Mn (Φ 50), bearing steel GCr15 (Φ 50), 4 cr5mosiv1 alloy tool steel (H13), stainless steel 0 Cr18Ni9 (304/2B 2. 0 mm plate).

3.The price come from the major consuming market of superior special steel, including Shanghai, Hangzhou, Changsha, Wuhan, Chongqing, Wuxi, Changzhou, Chengdu, Xi’an, Shenyang etc.

4.The index herein means weighted index , with the weight of each category made on the basis of its percentage of the total consumption of special steel over one year. The price adapted is the one of of major inventory markets by week.

5.The base date of the index is January 1, 2007 , with its value at 100 points.

6.According to the weight of latest categories in 2010, data in each day will have a deviation of 2-3 point. To ensure the continuity of the data, the index is not adjusted and the index based on the new weight is only for tracking prices.

IV. Ex-factory Price Tracking of Superior Special Steel Manufacturers

This week, we tracked 83 superior special steel manufacturers, of which 15mills released ex-factory pricing information, 15 mills declined their ex-factory prices. The ex-factory adjustment of price only involved products such as a few bars and optimal wire rods, with the declining of 130-400yuan/ton.

V. Price of Superior Special Steel

1.Price Tracking of Structural Steel Bar in a Week(unit: RMB yuan/ ton)

2.  Price Tracking of Superior Wire Rod in a Week(unit: RMB yuan/ ton)

3. Price Tracking of Superior Plate and Strip in a Week(unit: RMB yuan/ ton)

4. Price Tracking of Other Special Steel in a Week(unit: RMB yuan/ ton)