Monthly data:2018 China Bearing Steel market trend in Apr-will be appropriately adjusted

Summary: In January and February, domestic crude steel output increased by 40.22% year-on-year, and bearing steel output increased by 20.14%. Up to now, the domestic low-cost resources for continuous casting and non-annealing materials are 5050 yuan/ton; the mid-range materials are priced at 5,700 yuan/ton; the high-end materials are 6,500 yuan/ton. It is expected that the market price of bearing steel will be weak in April, and some high-end materials will not be ruled out.

1. Domestic bearing steel production

1.1 1-2 months production: bearing crude steel, steel both rose year-on-year

According to the statistics of the Special Steel Association, the output of crude steel for bearing steel of the main special steel enterprises in China in January and February 2018 was 691,200 tons, an increase of 40.22% compared with the same period of last year; the main special steel in China in January and February 2018 The output of bearing steel in enterprises was 600,700 tons, an increase of 20.14% compared with the same period of last year. See Figure 1.

1.2 January-February bearing steel production of various production enterprises: steel mill output increased year-on-year

As can be seen from Figure 2, the current bearing steel output is: CITIC Special Steel (Xinye Steel, Xingcheng Special Steel, Qingdao Iron and Steel), Nangang, Giant Energy and Bent, accounting for 72% of the total output. . The overall output of bearing steel in 18-February was increasing. The output of steel mills such as Nangang, Zhongte, Shagang, Sugang and Jiyuan increased compared with the same period of last year, but Giant Energy, Bent, Shigang and Jianlong The output of the steel mills has decreased slightly.

2. The domestic bearing steel market performance

With the weak market price of the excellent steel market, some bearing steel producers have also lowered the price of bearing steel, which is about 150-250 yuan/ton. It is expected that the market price of bearing steel will be weak in April.

3.Relevant market information

3.1 Raw material price:

In March, the price of imported ore was weak, and the price at the end of the month was US$64.85/dmt. After the price of the carbon scrap market rose sharply, the average price at the end of the month was 1,860 yuan/ton, down 13.22% from the end of last month; the average price of high-carbon ferrochrome Downside, the average price at the end of the month is 7,625 yuan / ton. The raw material market is expected to run in April.

3.2 Downstream industry

According to the statistical analysis of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in February 2018, automobile production and sales both showed a rapid decline in both the chain and the same period of the previous year. In January-February, automobile production declined year-on-year, and sales volume increased slightly. In February, the automobile production was 1,705,700 units, a decrease of 36.55% from the previous month and a decrease of 20.82% from the same period of last year. The sales volume was 1,177.6 thousand units, a decrease of 38.86% from the previous month and a decrease of 11.12% from the same period last year. In January-February, the production and sales of automobiles were 4,393,700 and 4,246,700, and the output decreased by 2.81% year-on-year, and the sales volume increased by 1.72%.

4. Conclusion

At present, the downstream procurement cost has increased significantly compared with previous years. The excessive pressure on funds has led to a significant slowdown in downstream procurement. Considering that the steel production capacity is not reduced, the late inventory pressure is difficult to change. It is expected that the bearing steel price in April will be weak.