Monthly data:2018 China Bearing Steel market trend in May-will be stabilized overall

Summary: Domestic crude steel output increased by 23.06% year-on-year in January-March, and bearing steel output increased by 10.24% year-on-year. Looking back at the bearing steel market in April, the price of high-end materials of GCr15 was stable, and the medium and low-grade materials showed a slight decline, and demand slowed down. Up to now, the low-cost resources for continuous casting and non-annealing materials in China are 5,000 yuan/ton; the mid-range materials are priced at 5,600 yuan/ton; the high-end materials are 6,500 yuan/ton. It is expected that the bearing steel market price will be insufficiently driven in May.

1. Domestic bearing steel production

1.1 1-3 months production: bearing crude steel, steel both rose year-on-year

According to the statistics of the Special Steel Association, the output of crude steel for bearing steel of the main special steel enterprises in China from January to March 2011 was 1,112,600 tons, an increase of 23.06% compared with the same period of last year; the main special steel in China from January to March 2018 The company's bearing steel output was 936,800 tons, an increase of 10.24% compared with the same period last year. See Figure 1.

1.2 From January to March, the output of finished steel products of bearing steel production enterprises: steel mill output increased year-on-year

As can be seen from Figure 2, the current bearing steel output is: CITIC Special Steel (Xinye Steel, Xingcheng Special Steel, Qingdao Iron and Steel), Nangang and Zhongtian, accounting for 59% of the total output. In the 18-year period from January to March, the overall output of bearing steel increased. The output of steel mills such as Zhongtian, Nangang, Zhongte, Shagang, Sugang and Jiyuan increased compared with the same period of last year, but Bent, Giant Energy, Jiyuan, The production of steel mills such as Jianlong and Beiman decreased slightly.

2. The domestic bearing steel market performance

The enthusiasm of the terminal to get goods this month has been weakened, the wait-and-see mood is extremely serious, and the improvement of procurement enthusiasm will take time. Bearing steel prices are expected to remain stable in May.

3. Relevant market information

3.1. Raw material price:

In April, the price of imported minerals fluctuated slightly. The price at the end of the month was at US$65.3/dmt; the market price of carbon scrap was strong, and the average price at the end of the month was RMB 2010/ton, up 7.46% from the end of last month; the average price of high-carbon ferrochrome was down. The average price at the end of the month was 7,237 yuan / ton. It is expected that the raw material market will continue to maintain a volatile operating pattern in May.

3.2. Downstream industry

According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in March 2018, automobile production and sales showed a rapid growth, and the growth rate was slightly lower than the same period. From January to March, the year-on-year decline in vehicle production was slightly narrower than that in the previous February, and the sales growth rate has increased. In March, the automobile production was 2.268 million units, an increase of 54.10% from the previous month and an increase of 1.15% year-on-year; the sales volume was 2.656 million units, up 54.65% from the previous month and up 4.67% year-on-year. From January to March, the production and sales of automobiles were 7,022,200 and 7,821,700, and the output decreased by 1.36%. The decline was 1.45 percentage points lower than that in January and February, and the sales volume increased by 2.79%. The growth rate was 1.07 percentage points higher than that in January and February.

4. Conclusion

At present, the price difference between GCr15 and 45# carbon steel has increased to 800-950 yuan/ton. Considering that the release of steel mill capacity is not reduced, the market supply and demand are not balanced. It is expected that the market price of bearing steel will generally stabilize in May, and the upside is limited.