Monthly data:2018 China Bearing Steel market trend in Jun-will be fluctuated within a narrow range

Summary: In January-April, the output of domestic crude steel increased by 18.88% year-on-year, and the output of bearing steel increased by 13.71%. Looking back at the bearing steel market in May, the price of GCr15 high-end materials remained stable, and the medium and low-end materials were slightly consolidating, and demand slowed down. Up to now, the domestic low-cost resources for continuous casting and non-annealing materials are 5,000 yuan/ton; the mid-range materials are priced at 5,500 yuan/ton; the high-end materials are 6,500 yuan/ton. Bearing steel prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in June.

1. Domestic bearing steel production

1.1 the production of January-April: bearing crude steel, steel both rose year-on-year

According to the statistics of the Special Steel Association, the output of crude steel for bearing steel of the main special steel enterprises in China from January to April 2018 was 1,460,700 tons, an increase of 18.98% compared with the same period of last year; the main special steel in China from January to April 2018 The company's bearing steel output was 1,292,900 tons, an increase of 13.71% compared with the same period last year. See Figure 1.

1.2  Production of finished steel products of bearing steel production enterprises from January to April: steel mill output increased year-on-year

As can be seen from Figure 2, the current bearing steel output is: CITIC Special Steel (Xinye Steel, Xingcheng Special Steel, Qingdao Iron and Steel), Zhongtian and Giant Energy, accounting for 59% of the total output. In the first 18 months of January-April, the overall output of bearing steel increased. The output of steel mills such as Zhongte, Zhongtian, Nangang, Shagang, Sugang and Jiyuan increased compared with the same period of last year, but Xing Gang, Bent and Jianlong The output of steel mills such as Beiman has decreased slightly.

2. The domestic bearing steel market performance

The off-season demand for steel is approaching, and the demand for downstream steel is weakening. It is expected that the price of bearing steel will fluctuate and consolidate in June.

3. Relevant market information

3.1. Raw material price:

In May, the price of imported ore was high and then low, and the overall shock operation fell slightly. The price at the end of the month was 64.3 US dollars per dry ton; the price of the carbon scrap market was strong, and the average price at the end of the month was 1978 yuan/ton, down 1.59% from the end of last month; High-carbon ferrochrome is oscillating, and the average price at the end of the month is 7270 yuan / ton. The environmental protection policy has a limited growth rate of raw material supply under high pressure. It is expected that the raw material market will fluctuate in June.

3.2. Downstream industry

According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in April 2018, automobile production and sales decreased slightly, showing a rapid growth year-on-year. From January to April, compared with January-March, vehicle production ended down year-on-year, showing a small increase, and sales growth increased. In April, the automobile production was 2,349,400 units, a decrease of 8.79% from the previous month and an increase of 12.27% from the same period of last year. The sales volume was 2,318,600 units, a decrease of 12.71% from the previous month and an increase of 11.47% from the same period last year. From January to April, the production and sales of automobiles were 94.198 million and 9.512 million, an increase of 1.78% and 4.78%.

4. Conclusion

In view of the large price difference between the price of GCr15 and 45# carbon steel, some steel mill resources have reached 800-900 yuan / ton. It is expected that the market price of bearing steel will fluctuate in a narrow range in June, and some materials will fall slightly in the next ten days, but the space for decline will not be large.