Monthly data:2018 China Bearing Steel market trend in November will run weakly

Summary: Domestic crude steel output increased by 16.71% year-on-year in January-September, and bearing steel output increased by 15.43% year-on-year. Up to now, the low-cost resources for continuous casting and non-annealing materials in China are 5,000 yuan/ton; the mid-range materials are priced at 5,200 yuan/ton; the high-end materials are 6,300 yuan/ton. It is expected that the market price of bearing steel will remain stable in August, and some materials will be weak or it will run weakly in November.

I. Domestic bearing steel production

1.The production of January-August: crude steel, bearing steel both rose year-on-year

According to the statistics of the Special Steel Association, the output of crude steel for bearing steel of the main U-steel enterprises in China from January to September 306.84 million tons, an increase of 16.71% compared with the same period of last year; the main special steel output of enterprise bearing steel was 289.49 million tons in China from January to September 2018, an increase of 15.43% compared with the same period of last year. See Figure 1.

2. Bearing steel production of various production enterprises from January to August: steel mill output increased year-on-year

As can be seen from Figure 2, the current bearing steel output is: CITIC Special Steel (Xinye Steel, Xingcheng Special Steel, Qingdao Iron and Steel), Zhongtian and Giant Energy, accounting for 57% of the total output. In the first six months of January and September, the overall output of bearing steel increased. The output of steel mills such as Jiyuan, Shagang, Zhongte, Nangang and Sugang increased compared with the same period of last year, but Xing Gang, Bent, Jianlong and Beiman decreased slightly.

II.The domestic bearing steel market performance

Looking back at October, the price of high-end materials is stable, and the resources of medium and low prices are slightly down. Looking forward to the bearing steel market in October, it is expected that the market price of bearing steel will run weakly in November.

III. Relevant market information

1. Raw material price:

In October, the import minerals market fluctuated upwards. The price at the end of the month was 75.65 US dollars per dry ton. The overall ordinary carbon scrap market rose sharply. The average price at the end of the month was 2409 yuan/ton, up 4.44% from the end of last month. The high carbon ferrochrome market was weak. The average price at the end of the month is 7,003 yuan / ton.

2. Downstream industry

According to the statistical analysis of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in October 2018, automobile production decreased slightly, and sales increased, a slight decrease year-on-year. From January to October, automobile production and sales increased slightly. Compared with January-July, the output growth rate increased, and the sales growth rate dropped slightly. In October, the automobile production was 2,334.5thousand units, a decrease of 0.92% from the previous month and an decrease of 10.05% from the same period of last year. The sales volume was 2,380.1 thousand units, a decrease of 0.58% from the previous month and an decrease of 11.7% from the same period last year. From January to October, the production and sales of automobiles were 2,2825.8thousand and 22,078.9 thousand a year-on-year decrease of 0.39% and 0.06%.

Ⅳ. Conclusion

Although the output of bearing steel in Zhongtian, Juneng and Beiman has decreased slightly recently, the growth rate of demand for bearing steel has been restrained to a certain extent. The market price of bearing steel is expected to run weakly in November.