Monthly data:Bearing steel market is expected to rise in February

Summary: From January to December, the output of domestic bearing steel crude steel increased by 9.22% year-on-year, and the output of bearing steel increased by 11.82%. Looking back at the bearing steel market in January, the price of bearing steel was under pressure and the market turnover gradually weakened. Up to now, the low-cost resources for continuous casting and non-annealing materials in China are 4,500 yuan / ton; the mid-range materials are priced at 5,000 yuan / ton; the high-end materials are 6,000 yuan / ton. Under the cost push, it is expected that the market price of bearing steel after the holiday is expected to rise.

I. Domestic bearing steel production

1. Production from January to December: Bearings crude steel and steel both rose year-on-year. According to the statistics of the Special Steel Association, the output of crude steel for bearing steel in the main special steel enterprises in China from January to December 2018 was 3.924 million tons, compared with the same period last year. The ratio increased by 9.22%; from January to December of 2018, the output of bearing steel in China's major Ute steel enterprises was 3.823 million tons, an increase of 11.82% compared with the same period of last year. See Figure 1.

2. From January to December, the output of finished steel products of bearing steel production enterprises: steel mill output increased year-on-year

As can be seen from Figure 2, the current bearing steel output is: CITIC Special Steel (Xinye Steel, Xingcheng Special Steel, Qingdao Iron and Steel), Zhongtian and Bent, accounting for 59% of the total output. In the 18-year period from January to December, the overall output of bearing steel increased. The output of steel mills such as Zhongtian, Sugang, Shagang, CITIC Special Steel and Nangang increased compared with the same period of last year. Bent, Xinggang, Jianlong, North The output of Manchu Steel Plant decreased slightly.

Ⅱ.Domestic bearing steel market performance

Looking back at the bearing steel market in January, this month was affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and the market demand gradually stagnated, which had a certain impact on prices. It is expected that the price of bearing steel will rise slightly in February.

Ⅲ.Relevant market information

1. Raw material price

In January, the price of imported minerals continued to rise. At the end of the month, the price was at US$84.3/dry ton. The market price of carbon scrap was slightly increased. The average price at the end of the month was 2,281 yuan/ton, up by 3.4% from the end of last month. The market for high-carbon ferrochrome was narrow. Consolidation, the average price at the end of the month is 6,943 yuan / ton.

2. Downstream industry

According to the statistical analysis of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in December 2018, compared with the previous month, the automobile production decreased slightly, and the sales volume increased slightly. Compared with the same period of last year, both production and sales showed a rapid decline. From January to December, the production and sales of automobiles showed a slight decline year-on-year, and the decline was slightly larger than that in January-November. In December, automobile production was 2.482 million units, down 0.65% from the previous month and down 18.39% year-on-year; sales were 2.661 million units, up 4.46% from the previous month and down 13.03% from the same period last year. From January to December, the production and sales of automobiles were 27.0902 million and 2,808,600, down 4.16% and 2.76% year-on-year.

Ⅳ. Conclusion

Looking back at the market in January, the price of bearing steel is weak, and demand has entered the off-season, and merchant prices have to drop in price. It is expected that the market price of bearing steel is expected to rise in February.