Monthly data:Bearing steel market is expected to be weak in June

Summary: From January to April, the output of domestic bearing steel crude steel increased by 9.63% year-on-year, and the output of bearing steel decreased by 11.45%. Up to now, the low-cost resources for continuous casting and non-annealing materials in China are 4,500 yuan / ton; the mid-range materials are priced at 4,900 yuan / ton; the high-end materials are 5,800 yuan / ton. It is expected that the market price of bearing steel will be weak. 

I. Domestic bearing steel production

1. From January to April, the production of bearing crude steel, steel both fell

According to the statistics of the Special Steel Association, the output of crude steel for bearing steel of the main U-steel enterprises in China from January to April 2019 was 1,245,000 tons, down 9.63% compared with the same period of last year; the main special steel in China from January to April 2019 The company's bearing steel output was 1,113.7 thousand tons, down 11.45% compared with the same period last year. See Figure 1.

2. From January to April, the output of finished steel products of bearing steel production enterprises: steel mill output decreased year-on-year 

As can be seen from Figure 2, the current bearing steel output is: CITIC Special Steel (Xingcheng Special Steel, Daye Special Steel, Qingdao Iron and Steel), Zhongtian and Giant Energy, accounting for 65% of the total output. In the first four months of the 19th year, the overall output of bearing steel was decreasing, and the output of Jianlong, Shigang, Nangang, Zhongtian, Jiyuan, Bengang and other steel mills decreased. Xinggang, Beiman, Sugang, Baote and so on. Steel mill production has increased compared to the same period last year.

Ⅱ.The domestic bearing steel market performance

Looking back at the domestic bearing steel market in May, the overall trend has declined. At present, steel pipe plants and forging plants are basically purchased on demand, and the overall demand is still subject to certain restrictions. It is expected that the price of bearing steel in June will be weak.

Ⅲ.Relevant market information 

1. Raw material price

In May, the price of imported ore market dropped, and the port inventory continued to go to the warehouse. The price at the end of the month was 99.8 US dollars per dry ton. It is expected that iron ore prices will remain at a high level in June; the average price of ordinary carbon scrap at the end of the month is 2,312 yuan / ton, down 0.30% from the end of last month. It is expected that scrap steel will continue to be stable and weak in the near future; the high-carbon ferrochrome market will weaken, and the average price at the end of the month will be 6,903 yuan/ton.

2. Downstream industry

According to the statistical analysis of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the decline in automobile production and sales in January-April was slightly larger than that in January-March. In April, automobile production reached 2.052 million units, a decrease of 19.78% from the previous month and a decrease of 14.45% from the same period of last year. The sales volume was 1,800,500 units, a decrease of 21.41% from the previous month and a decrease of 14.61%. From January to April, the production and sales of automobiles was 8,838,600 and 8,538,300, down 10.98% and 12.12% year-on-year. Compared with January-March, the decline was 1.17% and 0.8% respectively.

Ⅳ. Conclusion 

At present, the supply and demand relationship is under certain pressure. It is expected that the bearing steel market price will continue to adjust and weaken in June.