Monthly data:Bearing steel market is expected to be steady in March

Summary: From January to December, the output of domestic bearing steel crude steel increased by 9.22% year-on-year, and the output of bearing steel increased by 11.82%. Up to now, the low-cost resources for continuous casting and non-annealing materials in China are 4,500 yuan / ton; the mid-range materials are priced at 5,000 yuan / ton; the high-end materials are 5,800 yuan / ton. It is expected that the bearing steel market is expected to consolidate upwards in March.

I. Domestic bearing steel production

1.The production from January to December: bearing crude steel, steel both rose year-on-year

According to the statistics of the Special Steel Association, the output of crude steel for bearing steel of the main special steel enterprises in China from January to December 2018 was 3.924 million tons, an increase of 9.22% compared with the same period of last year; the main special steel in China from January to December 2018 The output of enterprise bearing steel was 3.823 million tons, an increase of 11.82% compared with the same period of last year. See Figure 1.

2. From January to December, the output of finished steel products of bearing steel production enterprises: steel mill output increased year-on-year

As can be seen from Figure 2, the current bearing steel output is: CITIC Special Steel (Xinye Steel, Xingcheng Special Steel, Qingdao Iron and Steel), Zhongtian and Bent, accounting for 59% of the total output. In the 18-year period from January to December, the overall output of bearing steel increased. The output of steel mills such as Zhongtian, Sugang, Shagang, CITIC Special Steel and Nangang increased compared with the same period of last year. Bent, Xinggang, Jianlong, North The output of Manchu Steel Plant decreased slightly.

Ⅱ.The domestic bearing steel market performance

Looking back at the bearing steel market in February, some material prices have risen. Bearing steel prices are expected to remain stable in March, with some materials rising slightly.

Ⅲ.Relevant market information 

1. Raw material price

 In February, the price of imported ore market oscillated in a narrow range, and the price at the end of the month was 84.5 US dollars per dry ton. The market price of ordinary carbon scrap was steady and small, and the average price at the end of the month was 2,312 yuan / ton, up 1.34% from the end of last month. The high-carbon ferrochrome market is confined in a narrow range, with an average price of 6,983 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The raw material market price is expected to fluctuate strongly in March.

2. Downstream industry

According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January 2019, automobile production was 2,635,200 units, a decrease of 4.71% from the previous month and a decrease of 12.05% from the same period of last year. The sales volume was 2.637 million units, down 11.05% from the previous month and down 15.76% from the same period last year. Among them: passenger car production was 199,100 units, down 2.90% from the previous month and down 14.39% year-on-year; sales were 2.021 million units, down 9.49% from the previous month and down 17.71% from the same period last year. Commercial vehicle production was 370,100 units, down 13.44% from the previous month and up 3.18% year-on-year; sales were 346,200 units, down 19.18% from the previous month and down 2.18% from the same period last year.

Ⅳ. Conclusion 

At present, the price difference between GCr15 and 45# carbon steel is gradually at a reasonable level, and the price difference of some steel mills is 300-400 yuan/ton. It is expected that the price of bearing steel will be more likely to rise upwards in March.