Monthly data:Bearing steel market is stable and declining in August

Summary: Domestic bearing steel crude steel output decreased by 6.46% year-on-year in January-June, and bearing steel production decreased by 9.79% year-on-year. Up to now, the low-cost resources of domestic continuous casting non-annealed materials are 4,400 yuan / ton; the mid-range materials are priced at 4,700 yuan / ton; the high-end materials are 5,300 yuan / ton. It is expected that the market price of bearing steel will remain stable in August, and some materials will not be excluded.

I. Domestic bearing steel production

1. The production of January-June: bearing crude steel, steel both fell

According to the statistics of the Special Steel Association, the output of crude steel for bearing steel of the main U-steel enterprises in China from January to June 2019 was 1,905,200 tons, down 6.46% compared with the same period of last year; the main U-steel in China from January to June 2019 The company's bearing steel output was 1,724,200 tons, down 9.79% compared with the same period last year. See Figure 1.

2. From January to June, the output of finished steel products of bearing steel production enterprises: steel mill output decreased year-on-year

As can be seen from Figure 2, the current bearing steel output is: CITIC Special Steel (Xingcheng Special Steel, Daye Special Steel, Qingdao Iron and Steel), Zhongtian and Giant Energy, accounting for 65% of the total output. In the first six months of January-June, the overall output of bearing steel was decreasing, and the output of Jianlong, Shagang, Shigang, Benxi Steel, Xining, Nangang, Qilu, Jiyuan, Zhongtian and other steel mills decreased. Xing Gang, Beiman, Su The output of a few steel mills, such as steel and giant energy, increased slightly compared to the same period last year.

Ⅱ.The domestic bearing steel market performance

Looking back at July, the market performance of the bearing steel market has weakened, and some middle and low-grade materials have shown a slight decline. In the low season of traditional high-temperature shipments, downstream procurement is limited overall, inventory control is relatively low, and market sentiment is weak. Although the output of bearing steel production enterprises has decreased, in view of the limited support effect of demand on prices, the supply and demand relationship still faces certain pressure. It is expected that the market price of bearing steel will stabilize in August.

Ⅲ. Relevant market information

1. Raw material price:

In July, the price of the imported ore market fluctuated at a high level, and the supply gap was gradually repaired. The price at the end of the month was $118.25/dmt. Looking forward to August, the average price at the end of the month was 2,439 yuan / ton, up 4.63% from the end of last month; the high-carbon ferrochrome market was weak, and the average price at the end of the month was 6,455 yuan / ton. It is expected that the raw material market price will remain high and fluctuate in August.

2. Downstream industry

According to the statistical analysis of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in June 2019, automobile production and sales continued to decline year-on-year, but the decline was narrower than last month. In June, the production and sales of automobiles were 1.895 million and 2.056 million, respectively, down 17.3% and 9.6% respectively. From January to June, automobile production and sales were 12.132 million units and 12.323 million units, down 13.7% and 12.4% respectively.

Ⅳ. Conclusion

Looking back at the bearing steel market in July, demand showed a clear off-season characteristics, accumulative inventory speed accelerated, high-end material prices held steady, and low- and medium-price resource prices showed a slight decline. It is expected that the market price of bearing steel will remain stable in August, and some materials will be slightly reduced.