Monthly data: Bearing steel market is expected to stabilize and rebound in November

Monthly data: Bearing steel market is expected to stabilize and rebound in November

Summary: From January to September, the output of domestic bearing steel crude steel decreased by 1.57% year-on-year, and the output of bearing steel decreased by 7.40%. Looking back at the bearing steel market in August, the price of bearing steel is difficult to change, and the rate of decline in inventory is less than expected. Up to now, the low-cost resources for continuous casting and non-annealing materials in China are 4,350 yuan/ton; the mid-range materials are 4,600 yuan/ton; the high-end materials are 5,300 yuan/ton. It is expected that the bearing steel market is expected to stabilize or rebound slightly in November.

I. Domestic bearing steel production

1. Production from January to September: Bearing crude steel and steel both fell year on year

According to the statistics of the Special Steel Association, the output of crude steel for bearing steel of the main special steel enterprises in China from January to September 2019 was 2,253,300 tons, down 1.57% compared with the same period of last year; the main special steel in China from January to September 2019 The output of bearing steel in enterprises was 199.12 million tons, a decrease of 7.40% compared with the same period of last year. See Figure 1.

2. Production of finished steel products of bearing steel production enterprises from January to September: steel mill output decreased year-on-year

As can be seen from Figure 2, the current bearing steel output is: CITIC Special Steel (Xingcheng Special Steel, Daye Special Steel, Qingdao Iron and Steel), Zhongtian and Giant Energy, accounting for 64% of the total output. In the first seven months of January to September, the overall output of bearing steel was decreasing. The output of Jianlong, Shagang, Shigang, Benxi Steel, Xining, Nangang, Qilu, Jiyuan and other steel mills decreased. Beiman, Xinggang, Juergy, Su The output of steel mills such as Steel and Zhongtian increased slightly compared with the same period of last year.

Ⅱ.The domestic bearing steel market performance

In October, the overall bearing steel market was weak, and the pressure on the supply side caused by the increase in steel mill output and market inventory was obvious. At present, steel pipe plants and forging plants are basically purchased on demand, and the overall demand is still subject to certain constraints. It is expected that the market price of bearing steel in November is expected to usher in a small rebound.

Ⅲ. Relevant market information

1. Raw material price:

In October, the price of imported ore market fell sharply, and the price at the end of the month was 84.8 US dollars / dry ton. It is expected that the price will be weaker and stronger in November; the overall carbon scrap market will be weaker overall, and the average price at the end of the month will be 2,315 yuan/ton, down 5.09% from the end of last month. It is expected that the short-term scrap market will be dominated by stable and weak adjustment; the high-carbon ferrochrome market will rise slightly, and the average price at the end of the month will be 6,573 yuan/ton. It is expected that the raw material market price will fluctuate in November.

2. Downstream industry:

According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in October 2019, automobile production and sales both fell, and the year-on-year decline was narrowed. The production and sales volume was 1.8 million and 1.808 million, respectively, down 11.9% and 4.3 respectively over the same period of the previous year. %. From January to September, the production and sales of automobiles were 13.393 million and 14.132 million respectively. The production and sales volume decreased by 13.5% and 11.4% respectively compared with the same period of the previous year. The decline in production and sales was 0.2 and 1 percentage point lower than that in January-September.

Ⅳ. Conclusion

In the bearing steel market in October, the overall trend was weak. At present, the price difference between GCr15 and 45# carbon steel is relatively large, and some steel mill resources have reached 550-730 yuan/ton. It is expected that the market price of bearing steel in November is expected to stabilize and stabilize, but the rebound is limited.