Monthly data: The bearing steel market will fluctuate slightly in January

Monthly data: The bearing steel market will fluctuate slightly in January

Summary: From January to November, the domestic crude steel production of bearing steel decreased by 3.31% year-on-year, and the output of bearing steel decreased by 7.86% year-on-year. Looking back at the bearing steel market in December, the price of bearing steel has generally remained stable, and some materials have been consolidated. As of now, the low-cost resources for domestic continuous casting unannealed materials are 4,300 yuan / ton; mid-range materials are priced at 4,500 yuan / ton; and high-end materials are 5,300 yuan / ton. With the approach of the Spring Festival, social inventory control is more cautious. It is expected that the bearing steel market will fluctuate in a narrow range in January.

I. Domestic Bearing Steel Production

1. Production from January to November: bearing crude steel and steel both declined year-on-year

According to the statistics of the Special Steel Association, the output of crude steel for bearing steel by major special steel companies in China in January-November 2019 was 33.509 million tons, a decrease of 3.31% compared with the same period last year; The company's bearing steel output was 3.092 million tons, a decrease of 7.86% compared with the same period last year. See Figure 1 for details.

2. Production of finished steel products of bearing steel production enterprises from January to November: steel mill output decreased year-on-year

It can be seen from Figure 2 that the current major output of bearing steel are: CITIC Special Steel (Xingcheng Special Steel, Daye Special Steel, Qingdao Iron and Steel), Zhongtian and Juneng, which account for 64% of the total output. From January to November of 19, the overall output of bearing steel was decreasing. The output of Shagang, Jianlong, Qilu, Xining, Benxi Iron & Steel, Shigang, Baote, Nangang, Jiyuan, and CITIC all decreased. The output of steel mills such as Zhongtian, Sugang and Xinggang increased slightly compared with the same period last year.

Ⅱ.The domestic bearing steel market performance

Looking back at December, the last month of 19, the bearing steel market price was partially adjusted, and the level of demand declined. In order to prevent risks, some steel mills choose to maintain profits by reducing output. It is expected that the probability of large fluctuations in the bearing steel market price in January is small.

Ⅲ. Relevant market information

1. Raw material price:

The price of imported ore in December fluctuated strongly under the expectations of the winter reserve, and the price at the end of the month was 91.9 US dollars per dry ton. The demand for iron ore is expected to increase further. It is expected that port inventories may continue to be destocked in January, and prices are strongly supported; the market price of ordinary carbon scrap continues to slightly adjust, and the decline in scrap demand is not obvious. . The high-carbon ferrochrome market is lowered by 3.91% from the end of last month, and the average price at the end of the month was 6060 yuan / ton. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, it is expected that the raw material market prices will remain volatile and strong in January.

2. Downstream industries:

According to the statistical analysis of the China Automobile Industry Association, in November 2019, the overall performance of automobile production and sales was better than last month. Among them, the output growth rate was significantly higher than the sales volume. The production and sales volume reached 2.593 million and 2.457 million units, respectively. car. From January to November, the production and sales of automobiles still fell year-on-year, but the decline in production and sales continued to narrow slightly from January to October. The production and sales of automobiles were 23.038 million and 23.11 million, respectively.

Ⅳ. Conclusion

Looking back at the bearing steel market in December, prices were generally relatively stable, and market transactions continued to decline. As the Spring Festival approaches, the willingness to replenish downstream products has also declined. In the recent stage, the production of bearing steel from steel mills such as Shagang, Jianlong, Bengang, and Shigang has decreased slightly compared to the same period. The overhaul of some steel mills in January also affected some of the bearing steel output. Bearing steel prices are expected to fluctuate slightly in January.