Monthly data: Bearing steel market is expected to stabilize and fluctuate in February

Monthly data: Bearing steel market is expected to stabilize and fluctuate in February

Summary: From January to October, the domestic crude steel output of bearing steel decreased by 4.60% year-on-year, and the output of bearing steel decreased by 8.55% year-on-year. Looking back at the bearing steel market in November, the price of bearing steel has generally remained stable, and some materials have shown a trend of narrow fluctuations. As of now, the low-cost resources for domestic continuous casting unannealed materials are 4,300 yuan / ton; mid-range materials are priced at 4,500 yuan / ton; and high-end materials are 5,400 yuan / ton. Although the support effect of prices on the demand link is relatively limited, it is expected that the price of the bearing steel market may fluctuate steadily in view of the current reduction in the output of production enterprises.

I. Domestic Bearing Steel Production

1. Production from January to September: Bearing crude steel and steel both fell year on year

According to the statistics of the Special Steel Association, the output of crude steel for bearing steel by major special steel enterprises in China in January-October 2019 was 3.0662 million tons, a decrease of 4.60% compared with the same period of last year; the major special steels in China from January to October 2019 The company's bearing steel output was 2,810,600 tons, a decrease of 8.55% compared with the same period last year. See Figure 1 for details.

2. Production of finished steel products of bearing steel production enterprises from January to September: steel mill output decreased year-on-year

It can be seen from Figure 2 that the current major productions of bearing steel are: CITIC Special Steel (Xingcheng Special Steel, Daye Special Steel, Qingdao Iron and Steel), Zhongtian and Juneng, accounting for 63% of the total output. The overall output of bearing steel in January-October 19 was decreasing. The output of Shagang, Jianlong, Qilu, Xining, Bengang, Shigang, Jiyuan, Baote, Nangang and other steel mills decreased. The output of steel plants such as Tiangang, Xinggang, and Sugang increased slightly compared with the same period last year.

Ⅱ.The domestic bearing steel market performance

Looking back at January, the prices of high-end bearing steel materials remained stable, with some materials slightly adjusted. It is expected that the bearing steel market price will mainly stabilize in February , and there is limited room for decline.

Ⅲ. Relevant market information

1. Raw material price:

In January, the price of imported ore fell first and then rose, and the accumulated stock of ports increased, and the price at the end of the month was $ 87.05 / dry ton. The price of ordinary carbon scrap market fluctuated, and the average price at the end of the month was 2,391 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.63% from the end of last month. There is a risk that the scrap market as a whole will fall in February, but prices may fluctuate within a short period of time; the high-carbon ferrochrome market is lowered, and the average price at the end of the month is 6,307 yuan / ton. It is expected that the raw material market price will fluctuate as a whole in February.

2. Downstream industries

According to the statistical analysis of the China Automobile Industry Association, in January, the year-on-year decrease in automobile sales narrowed. The production and sales volume were 2.295 million and 2.284 million, respectively, an increase of 3.9% and 0.6% over the previous month, and a decrease of 1.7% and 4% over the same period of the previous year. From January to October, the production and sales of automobiles were 20.444 million and 20.652 million respectively. The production and sales volume of vehicles decreased by 10.4% and 9.7% respectively over the same period of the previous year. Judging from the completion of production and sales data in January, production and sales continued to pick up, but the recovery was still small.

Ⅳ. Conclusion

Looking back at the bearing steel market in January, the prices of high-end materials were relatively stable, and the prices of low- and mid-range resources showed a trend of narrow fluctuations. It is expected that the bearing steel market may fluctuate steadily in February.