Monthly Summary: The trend of the bearing steel market prices may rose slightly after the bottom of the shock in August

Monthly Summary: The trend of the bearing steel market prices may rose slightly after the bottom of the shock in August

Overview: From January to June 2022, domestic crude bearing steel output decreased by 0.67% year-on-year, and bearing steel output increased by 2.17% year-on-year. Up to now, the average price of domestic bearing round steel 50mm (continuous casting) is 5594 yuan/ton, down 560 yuan/ton from the end of June, and the month-on-month decrease is 9.10%. The market price of bearing steel is expected to rise slightly in August.

1. Domestic production of bearing steel

(1) Production of bearing steel from January to June 2022: steel increased year-on-year and crude steel decreased year-on-year

According to the statistics of the Special Steel Association, from January to June 2022, the crude steel output of bearing steel of my country's major high-quality special steel enterprises was 2.5067 million tons, a decrease of 0.67% compared with the same period last year; from January to June 2022, my country's main high-quality special steel The company's output of bearing steel was 2.20 million tons, an increase of 2.17% compared with the same period last year.

(2) The output of finished products of bearing steel production enterprises from January to June 2022: the output of steel mills increased year-on-year

At present, the largest production enterprises of bearing steel are: CITIC Special Steel (Xingcheng Special Steel, Daye Special Steel, Qingdao Steel), Shagang (Northeast Special Steel, Yonggang) and Jiyuan Steel, accounting for 59% of the total output . From January to June 2022, the overall output of bearing steel is increasing, and the output of steel mills such as Shigang, Laigang, Jiyuan, Jianlong, Zhongte, and Shagang have increased compared with the same period last year. The output of Tian, Nangang, Juneng and other steel mills decreased.

2. The domestic bearing steel market performance

The overall market price of bearing steel fell sharply in July, and the downstream demand performance was still weak. With the reduction of the severity of the national epidemic, the operating rate of downstream manufacturing enterprises has increased, and the overall demand is expected to increase month-on-month. It is expected that the market price of bearing steel will increase slightly in August.

3. Relevant market information

(1) Raw material price:

The price of iron ore fell first and then rose in July. The 62% Australian powder index is now US$114.5/dry ton. The domestic scrap steel market fell across the board, and the overall performance was poor. The average price at the end of the month was 2,404 yuan/ton. A variety of factors are still in play. Considering the gradual recovery of the market, it is expected that the scrap steel market will operate under pressure in August and will rise in shock; the market price of high-carbon ferrochrome is weak, and the price at the end of the month is 8,456 yuan / ton.

(2) Downstream industries

According to the statistics and analysis of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in June 2022, the production and sales of automobiles will be 2.499 million and 2.502 million respectively, an increase of 29.7% and 34.4% from the previous month, and an increase of 28.2% and 23.8% from the same period last year. From January to June, automobile production and sales reached 12.117 million and 12.057 million respectively, down 3.7% and 6.6% year-on-year.

4. Conclusion

The overall market price of bearing steel fell sharply in July, and the downstream demand performance was still weak. It is expected that the price of bearing steel may stabilize and rebound in August.