Monthly Summary: The trend of the bearing steel market prices may fluctuate in September

  Monthly Summary: The trend of the bearing steel market prices may fluctuate in September

Overview: From January to July 2022, domestic crude bearing steel production decreased by 3.62% year-on-year, and bearing steel production increased by 0.58% year-on-year. Looking back at the bearing steel market in August, the overall market price showed a weak downward trend, and the market demand continued to be weak. Up to now, the average price of domestic bearing round steel 50mm (continuous casting) is 5482 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan/ton from the end of July, and the month-on-month decrease is 2.01%. It is expected that the market price of bearing steel will continue to operate in a weak and volatile manner in September.

1. Domestic production of bearing steel

(1) Production of bearing steel from January to July 2022: steel increased year-on-year, crude steel decreased year-on-year

According to the statistics of the Special Steel Association, from January to July 2022, the crude bearing steel output of my country's major high-quality special steel enterprises was 2.8151 million tons, a decrease of 3.62% compared with the same period last year; The output of bearing steel of special steel enterprises was 2.5073 million tons, an increase of 0.58% compared with the same period last year.

(2) The output of finished products of bearing steel production enterprises from January to July 2022: the output of steel mills increased year-on-year

At present, the largest production enterprises of bearing steel are: CITIC Special Steel (Xingcheng Special Steel, Daye Special Steel, Qingdao Steel), Jiyuan Steel and Shagang (Northeast Special Steel, Yonggang), accounting for 61% of the total output . From January to July 2022, the overall output of bearing steel is increasing. The output of steel mills such as Shigang, Laigang, Jiyuan, Jianlong, Zhongte, and Shagang increased slightly compared with the same period last year. Xining, Beiman, Xinggang, Zhongtian , Bent, Nangang, Juneng and other steel mills have reduced output.

2. The domestic bearing steel market performance

In August, the market price of bearing steel fell slightly, and it was difficult to go to the warehouse in the off-season. In September, the demand for steel may continue to be weak in the off-season, but the fundamentals of supply and demand are better than those in August. It is expected that the market price of bearing steel will be adjusted mainly in September. In the short term, we still need to pay attention to the release of demand and the impact of emergencies on the market.

3. Relevant market information

(1) Raw material price

In August, iron ore prices were under pressure and the current 62% Australian powder index was $100.15 per dry ton. The domestic scrap steel market showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the market resources were tight. The average price at the end of the month was 2,658 yuan/ton. A new game may be ushered in in September; the market price of high-carbon ferrochromium is running weakly, and the transaction still needs to be followed up. The price at the end of the month is 7,600 yuan/ton.

(2) Downstream industries

According to the statistics and analysis of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in July 2022, the production and sales of automobiles will be 2.455 million and 2.42 million, down 1.8% and 3.3% from the previous month, and up 31.5% and 29.7% from the same period last year. Although the production and sales volume of the current month was lower than that of the previous month, it was the highest value in the same period of the past year. It is generally judged that the current development trend of the industry is good, and it is expected to continue. From January to July, the production and sales of automobiles reached 14.571 million and 14.477 million respectively, with production up 0.8% year-on-year and sales down 2% year-on-year. In August last year, the industry was seriously affected by the shortage of chips, and the level of production and sales was low. Therefore, it is expected to achieve double growth in production and sales from January to August this year.

4. Conclusion

In August, the overall market price of bearing steel continued to decline, and the market was in a strong wait-and-see mood. Recently, the price difference between GCr15 price and 45# carbon steel has widened, and the price difference of some steel mills has reached 700-950 yuan / ton, and downstream concerns still exist. It is expected that the market price of bearing steel will continue to operate in a weak and volatile manner in September.