Monthly Summary: The Market Price of Bearing Steel will Fluctuate in February

The Market Price of Bearing Steel will Fluctuate in February

Overview: In 2022, the domestic production of crude steel for bearing steel will decrease by 9.07% year-on-year, and the output of bearing steel will decrease by 6.32% year-on-year. Looking back at the bearing steel market in January, the overall situation showed a slight upward trend, and the relationship between supply and demand was in a weak balance. Up to now, the average price of domestic bearing round steel 50mm (continuous casting) is 5,473 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan/ton from the end of December, and a month-on-month increase of 1.07%. It is expected that the market price of bearing steel in February will fluctuate in a range.

1. Domestic production of bearing steel

(1) Bearing steel production in 2022: Both steel and crude steel will decrease year-on-year

In 2022, the output of bearing steel crude steel of my country's major high-quality special steel enterprises will be 4.4012 million tons, a decrease of 9.07% compared with the same period last year.

(2) The output of finished products of bearing steel manufacturers in 2022: the output of steel mills will decrease year-on-year

At present, the production enterprises with large bearing steel production are: CITIC Special Steel (Xingcheng Special Steel, Daye Special Steel, Qingdao Iron and Steel), Jiyuan Iron and Steel and Shagang (Northeast Special Steel, Yonggang), accounting for 63% of the total output . In 2022, the overall output of bearing steel will decrease. The output of steel plants such as Shigang, Laiwu Steel, Juneng, Jiyuan, and Zhongte will increase slightly compared with the same period last year. Xining, Beiman, Xinggang, Zhongtian, Bente, Nangang, The output of steel mills such as Shagang and Jianlong has decreased.

2. Domestic bearing steel market performance

In January, the market price of bearing steel rose slightly, and the market demand performance was not optimistic. It is expected that the market price of bearing steel in February will fluctuate in a range.

3. Relevant market information

(1) Raw material prices:

In January, the price of iron ore fluctuated upwards, and the current 62% Australian powder index is 129 US dollars/dry ton. On the iron ore supply side in February, overseas iron ore shipments in January fell month-on-month, which may lead to a seasonal decline in China's iron ore imports in February. The domestic scrap steel market as a whole showed an upswing first and then a downturn, with the average price at the end of the month at 2,730 yuan/ton. Therefore, based on various factors, it is expected that the scrap steel market may rise and then fall and then run steadily in February; the high-carbon ferrochromium market will run relatively strong, and the price at the end of the month will be 9378 yuan/ton. It is expected that the ferrochromium market will maintain a relatively strong trend driven by costs in the near future.

(2) Downstream industries:

In December 2022, the production and sales of automobiles will be 2.383 million and 2.556 million respectively, with production down 0.3% month-on-month, sales up 9.7% month-on-month, and 18.2% and 8.4% year-on-year respectively. From the perspective of the whole year's development, the production and sales of automobiles in 2022 will be 27.021 million and 26.864 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and 2.1%. In 2022, new energy vehicles will continue to grow explosively. The annual sales volume will exceed 6.8 million, and the market share will increase to 25.6%. It will gradually enter a period of comprehensive market expansion and usher in a new stage of development and growth.

4. Conclusion

In January, the market price of bearing steel rose slightly, and the demand was relatively weak. As the Spring Festival holiday runs through it, the market turnover gradually decreased in the first half of January, and the market transactions basically stopped during the Spring Festival. It is expected that the market price of bearing steel may fluctuate in a range in February, and the speed of demand recovery needs to be further verified.