Global manufacturing slump in May ,The road to recovery appears bumpy

According to news from the official website of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on the 6th, the global manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) in May 2024 reported 49.8%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from April, and has failed to break through the key threshold of 50% for two consecutive months.

Observed by region, although the Asian manufacturing PMI has declined, it has remained stable above 51% for three consecutive quarters; the European manufacturing PMI has increased slightly, but is still below the 50% line; while the manufacturing PMI of the Americas and Africa has declined. fell respectively, with neither crossing the 50% growth threshold.

The Federation's analysis concluded that the global manufacturing industry maintained a moderate recovery trend in May, the Asian region was running smoothly, the recovery momentum in Europe increased slightly, and the recovery energy in the Americas and Africa weakened slightly. From January to May this year, the average global manufacturing PMI stood at 49.7%, which was better than the previous year but not as good as the same period in 2019. In view of the slow recovery of the global economy since the beginning of the year, following the OECD and the International Monetary Fund, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs has also raised its economic growth forecast, raising the global economic growth rate in 2024 to 2.7% from the earlier 2.4%. . In addition, the World Trade Organization's future outlook for global trade has revealed an optimistic signal, predicting that global merchandise trade volume is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2024, and the growth rate will further increase to 3.3% in 2025. However, geopolitical conflicts, uncertainty in various countries' economic and trade policies, heavy debt burdens, and inflationary pressures are still unstable factors that plague the recovery of the global economy and trade.

The Federation also emphasized that in order to stabilize the pace of economic recovery, countries around the world are accelerating the transformation of economic structures, especially promoting the growth of the digital economy, artificial intelligence and emerging power industries. At present, it will take time for the new economic driving force to fully mature. Before it has a dominant impact on the global economy, if there is no major negative impact, the global economy may remain in a relatively stable fluctuation range. The potential for future economic growth can only be fully realized if the global supply chain is ensured to be smooth. Strengthening multilateral cooperation and eliminating the negative effects of trade protectionism and geopolitical conflicts are the key paths to achieving a steady recovery of the global economy.

In particular, it was pointed out that the recovery momentum of Africa's manufacturing industry has weakened, and the PMI has fallen below 50%, ending the relatively stable trend for five consecutive months. The significant deceleration of South Africa's manufacturing industry has become the main resistance. Although Africa's economy faces fluctuations, its development potential remains vast thanks to its unique resources and population advantages. The resilience of the European manufacturing industry has improved, and the PMI has increased from the previous month, showing signs of marginal improvement in the economy. The recovery momentum of the American manufacturing industry continues to weaken, with the PMI below 50% for two consecutive months. Among various regions, the performance of the Asian manufacturing industry is the most stable, maintaining above 51% for three consecutive months, demonstrating strong recovery momentum and resilience.