Weekly Summary: 2024 China Bearing Steel Market Trend in First Week of June Fluctuates Downward

Weekly Summary: 2024 China Bearing Steel Market Trend in First Week of June Fluctuates Downward

1、 Review of this week

[In terms of price]

This week, the mainstream market price of bearing steel in China fluctuated downward, with the GCr15 absolute price index as of today at 5107.5 yuan/ton.

[Main Market Overview]

The price of bearing steel in the Liaocheng market has fluctuated and fallen, resulting in weak market demand. This week's inventory is relatively stable compared to last week, and the speed of inventory reduction in society is slower. At present, the bearing steel spot in the Liaocheng market has more resources from Juneng, Jiyuan, and Qinggang, and the inventory of multiple traders is maintained at around 1500 tons. At present, terminal procurement is still cautious, purchasing on demand and not hoarding too much inventory. Considering weak demand, market prices have fallen. Overall, it is expected that the price of bearing steel in the Liaocheng market will mainly consolidate in the short term. Currently, Jiyuan Steel's GCr15 diameter 30-75 is priced at 4600 yuan/ton, while Juneng Special Steel's GCr15 diameter 16-90 is priced at 4400 yuan/ton.

The price of bearing steel in the Hangzhou market has been consolidating, with average transactions. The inventory in the Hangzhou market this week is relatively stable compared to last week, with more spot inventory from Zhongtian Iron and Steel, Nanjing Iron and Steel, and Daye Special Steel. The inventory level remains stable, and steel mills are shipping normally, with little change in factory inventory. At present, there is no sign of improvement in the supply and demand fundamentals of the market. There are more low-priced resources in the market, and terminal procurement is still relatively cautious. All purchases are made according to demand, and the willingness to hoard goods is low. Overall, it is expected that the short-term price of bearing steel in the Hangzhou market will mainly fluctuate. As of the time of publication, Zhongtian Steel's GCr15 with a diameter of 40-140 is priced at 4600 yuan/ton, while Daye Special Steel's GCr15 with a diameter of 20-40 is priced at 4870 yuan/ton.

The price of bearing steel in the Wuxi market is currently stable, and merchants are operating cautiously. The spot market in Wuxi has more resources from Zhongtian Steel, Xingcheng Special Steel, and Benxi Steel, with most traders having a stock of around 1500 tons. In terms of the market, traders have shown caution in their quotations as demand has not reached the expected level. Although the black market has fluctuated strongly this week, the performance of market demand is weak, and the driving force for market price increases is insufficient. This week, spot prices have mainly stabilized and operated. Overall, it is expected that the price of bearing steel in the Wuxi market will continue to remain stable in the short term. As of publication, Zhongtian Steel's GCr15 with a diameter of 40-140 is priced at 4600 yuan/ton, while Xingcheng Special Steel's GCr15 with a diameter of 31-90 is priced at 5690 yuan/ton.

The price of bearing steel in the Dalian market is stable but tends to weaken, and market demand is relatively weak. In the Dalian market, Bengang, Dongte Co., Ltd., and Jianlong Beiman have abundant supply of goods, with large-scale traders holding around 3000 tons of inventory. Downstream terminals purchase cautiously, with transactions lower than the same period in previous years, indicating a clear cautious sentiment among merchants. Given that there is not much room for improvement in the spot market demand in the short term, it is expected that the price of Dalian bearing steel will remain stable next week, with narrow fluctuations as a supplement. Currently, Benxi Steel's special steel GCr15 with a diameter of 81-130 is priced at 4670 yuan/ton, Dongte Group's GCr15 with a diameter of 86-180 is priced at 4720 yuan/ton, and Jianlong Beiman's GCr15 with a diameter of 30-75 is priced at 4670 yuan/ton.

The price of bearing steel in the Luoyang market has slightly fallen, and the transaction has not reached the expected level. Recently, there has been a relatively abundant supply of goods for Jiyuan Steel, Daye Special Steel, and Hegang Stone Steel in the Luoyang market, with some traders holding around 1000 tons of inventory. This week's market feedback showed that downstream terminal enterprises and traders showed weak purchasing enthusiasm, and the market trading atmosphere was cold. The spot market prices began to show a slight decline. Given the relatively weak demand, it is expected that the price of bearing steel in the Luoyang market will stabilize and weaken next week. As of the time of publication, Jiyuan Steel's GCr15 with a diameter of 6.5-23 is priced at 4770 yuan/ton, Daye Special Steel's GCr15 with a diameter of 20-40 is priced at 5000 yuan/ton, and Hegang Shigang's GCr15 with a diameter of 131-180 is priced at 4520 yuan/ton.

[In terms of steel mills]

From May 31st to June 7th, no steel mills have released any price adjustment information. We should continue to monitor consumer demand and the impact of steel mill maintenance next week.

In addition, starting from late May, Nangang will conduct maintenance on a large bar line for a period of 10 days, which is expected to affect the production of 30000 tons of bar materials with a diameter of 50-200mm, including an estimated impact on 2000 tons of bearing steel; In addition, due to furnace maintenance in June and July, there is a shortage of molten iron, which is expected to affect the production of round steel by 30000 to 40000 tons per month.

2、 Outlook for next week

This week, the price of bearing steel in the market fluctuated and declined, with average transactions. In terms of supply, the regular specifications of spot supply remain stable, with some specifications experiencing shortages. In order to reduce financial risks, merchants choose to operate on a monotonous basis. In terms of the market, downstream enterprises are cautious and cautious in their own orders, slowing down their procurement pace, and having a low willingness to hoard goods. It is expected that the core trend of the market in the later stage will still revolve around demand. Even if costs rise and steel mills introduce a new round of price adjustments, in the case of weak demand, the market prices in the later stage still lack significant upward momentum. In summary, it is expected that the bearing steel market prices will fluctuate next week.