Weekly Summary: 2024 China Bearing Steel Market Trend in First Week of August Has Fallen Sharply

Weekly Summary: 2024 China Bearing Steel Market Trend in First Week of August Has Fallen Sharply

1、 This week's review

【In terms of price】

This week, the price of bearing steel has fallen sharply, and as of today, the absolute price index of GCr15 is 4985 yuan/ton.

【Overview of Major Markets】

The price of bearing steel in Liaocheng market has fallen sharply, with average transactions. At present, the Liaocheng market has more spot bearing steel resources from steel mills such as Juneng and Qinggang, and multiple traders maintain inventory of over 800 tons. At present, market prices have fallen sharply as demand weakens, coupled with the influx of some low-priced resources into the market. Merchants are cautious and pessimistic, and transactions are average. Overall, it is expected that the price of bearing steel in the Liaocheng market will remain stable in the short term. Currently, Jiyuan Steel's GCr15 Φ 30-75 is priced at 4400 yuan/ton, while Juneng Special Steel's GCr15 Φ 16-90 is priced at 4200 yuan/ton.

The price of bearing steel in the Hangzhou market has fallen sharply, and the sentiment of merchants is cautious. The spot inventory in the Hangzhou market is relatively abundant with resources from Zhongtian Iron and Steel and Nanjing Iron and Steel, with stable inventory levels and normal shipments from steel mills, with little change in factory inventory. At present, we are in the off-season of demand, with poor downstream order performance and mainly focusing on on-demand procurement. Coupled with the volatile downward trend of the black market this week, the sentiment of merchants is cautious and pessimistic, and the short-term supply-demand contradiction recovery is weak. Overall, it is expected that the price of bearing steel in the Hangzhou market will continue to be weak in the short term. As of press time, Zhongtian Steel's GCr15 Φ 40-140 is quoted at 4500 yuan/ton, and Daye Special Steel's GCr15 Φ 20-40 is quoted at 4800 yuan/ton.

The price of bearing steel in the Wuxi market continues to decline, and the shipping speed is average. The spot market in Wuxi has more resources from Zhongtian Steel, Xingcheng Special Steel, and Benxi Iron and Steel, with most traders having inventory of around 1000 tons. At present, the market performance is lukewarm, and the terminal's enthusiasm for purchasing goods is not high, maintaining on-demand procurement. There are not many bulk orders in the market, coupled with a slow decline in spot inventory. Most traders adjust prices according to changes in demand, but the sales speed is slower than expected. Overall, it is expected that the price of bearing steel in the Wuxi market will remain weakly stable in the short term. As of the time of writing, Zhongtian Steel's GCr15 Φ 40-140 is quoted at 4500 yuan/ton, and Xingcheng Special Steel's GCr15 Φ 31-90 is quoted at 5640 yuan/ton.

The price of bearing steel in Dalian market has slightly fallen, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. In the Dalian market, Benxi Iron and Steel, Dongte Shares, and Jianlong Beiman have abundant sources of goods, with large-scale traders having inventory of around 3000 tons. This week's market feedback showed that downstream terminal procurement was insufficient, market demand was released slowly, and transactions did not meet expectations. In practice, merchants adopt on-demand replenishment to reduce risks. Considering the recent weakness of black futures and the weak support for spot market prices, it is expected that the price of Dalian bearing steel will operate weakly next week. Currently, Bengang Special Steel's GCr15 Φ 81-130 is priced at 4450 yuan/ton, Dongte Stock's GCr15 Φ 86-180 is priced at 4500 yuan/ton, and Jianlong Beiman's GCr15 Φ 30-75 is priced at 4500 yuan/ton.

The price of bearing steel in Luoyang market is running weakly, and merchants are cautious in their willingness to replenish inventory. Recently, there has been ample supply of Jiyuan Steel, Daye Special Steel, and Hegang Stone Steel in the Luoyang market, with some traders holding around 1000 tons of inventory. Downstream terminal enterprises are cautious in procurement, and some terminals have already gone on vacation, making it difficult for market demand to improve in the short term. In terms of profit, given the current off-season period and the weakening of raw material prices, the spot market profit of bearing steel is weak. Overall, it is expected that the price of bearing steel in the Luoyang market will experience a narrow range of fluctuations and weaken next week. As of the time of writing, Jiyuan Steel's GCr15 Φ 6.5-23 is quoted at 4700 yuan/ton, Daye Special Steel's GCr15 Φ 20-40 is quoted at 4900 yuan/ton, and Hegang Stone Steel's GCr15 Φ 131-180 is quoted at 4450 yuan/ton.

【Regarding steel mills】

The price adjustment situation of major bearing steel mills in China from July 26th to August 2nd is as follows: a total of 2 steel mills have released price adjustment information in this period, with a total of 2 price adjustment information released. Next week, we should continue to pay attention to the impact of consumer demand and steel mill maintenance.

2、 Next week's outlook

This week, the market price of bearing steel has fallen sharply, and the guidance price of steel mills has been mainly adjusted downwards. Traders are cautious in replenishing inventory. At present, there are many low-priced resources, but transactions have not increased significantly. The short-term supply-demand contradiction repair is weak, and it is expected that the market price of bearing steel will continue to operate steadily and weakly next week.