Weekly Summary: 2024 China Bearing Steel Market Trend in First Week of December is temporarily Stable

Weekly Summary: 2024 China Bearing Steel Market Trend in First Week of December is temporarily Stable

Ⅰ This week's review

【In terms of price】

This week, the price of bearing steel has remained stable, with an absolute GCr15 price index of 4990 yuan/ton as of today.

【Overview of Major Markets】

The price of bearing steel in Liaocheng market is currently stable, and merchants have shown a cautious attitude in their operations. At present, the spot of bearing steel in Liaocheng market mainly comes from steel mills such as Juneng and Jiyuan, and the inventory of multiple traders remains above 500 tons. At present, businesses are replenishing their inventory according to demand, and the price index of bearing steel remains relatively stable. Market prices are mainly driven by demand, and considering the concentration of market resources in Liaocheng, merchants often adopt a strategy of on-demand procurement when replenishing inventory. Overall, it is expected that the price of bearing steel in the Liaocheng market will remain stable in the short term. Currently, Jiyuan Steel's GCr15 Φ 30-75 is priced at 4300 yuan/ton, while Juneng Special Steel's GCr15 Φ 16-90 is priced at 4000 yuan/ton.

The price of bearing steel in the Hangzhou market remains stable, with average transactions. In terms of spot inventory, Zhongtian Steel and Nanjing Steel have slightly abundant resources, while most traders maintain inventory levels of around 500 tons. Given that market demand has not yet met expectations, traders appear cautious when quoting and tend to quote in a stable manner. From the transaction situation, it can be seen that the current price increase lacks momentum, and downstream procurement volume has not shown significant growth, resulting in certain shipping pressure for merchants. Overall, it is expected that the price of bearing steel in the Hangzhou market may experience slight fluctuations in the short term. As of press time, Zhongtian Steel's GCr15 Φ 40-140 is priced at 4350 yuan/ton, while Daye Special Steel's GCr15 Φ 20-40 is priced at 4750 yuan/ton.

The price of bearing steel in the Wuxi market is mainly stable, with weak transactions. In the Wuxi market, bearing steel products such as Zhongtian Steel and Xingcheng Special Steel are relatively abundant, and the inventory of most traders is maintained at about 800 tons. Compared to last week, the market sales this week have slightly decreased. Downstream end companies continue to purchase with rigid demand, and there are not many bulk orders in the market, which limits the potential for price increases. Therefore, most traders adjust prices from time to time based on fluctuations in demand. At the beginning of the month, merchants made a small replenishment of inventory, and the current social inventory level remains at a normal level. Overall, it is expected that the price of bearing steel in the Wuxi market will remain stable and decline in the short term. As of the time of writing, the quotation for GCr15 Φ 40-140 model from Zhongtian Steel is 4340 yuan/ton, and the quotation for GCr15 Φ 31-90 model from Xingcheng Special Steel is 5600 yuan/ton.

The price of bearing steel in Dalian market is currently stable, but the transaction did not meet expectations. In the Dalian market, Benxi Iron and Steel, Dongte Shares, and Jianlong Beiman have abundant sources of goods, with large-scale traders maintaining inventory of around 3000 tons. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream terminals is poor, and it is difficult to improve the market atmosphere, resulting in slightly weak transactions. In terms of emotions, considering the gradually cold climate in Northeast China and the insufficient room for improvement in demand in the short term, many businesses are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude. Overall, it is expected that the price of bearing steel in the Dalian market will fluctuate narrowly next week. Currently, Bengang Special Steel's GCr15 Φ 81-130 is priced at 4250 yuan/ton, Dongte Stock's GCr15 Φ 86-180 is priced at 4250 yuan/ton, and Jianlong Beiman's GCr15 Φ 30-75 is priced at 4300 yuan/ton.

The price of bearing steel in Luoyang market is running steadily, and merchants are generally cautious in their operations. Recently, there has been ample supply of Jiyuan Steel, Daye Special Steel, and Hegang Stone Steel in the Luoyang market, with some traders holding around 1000 tons of inventory. Downstream terminal procurement efforts are insufficient, and traders are operating cautiously and synchronously, resulting in low market activity. In order to circulate funds, most merchants adopt a "single negotiation" price, and the bargaining space continues to expand. Considering the recent slight decline in raw material prices, it is expected that the price of bearing steel in Luoyang will operate weakly and steadily next week. As of the time of writing, Jiyuan Steel's GCr15 Φ 6.5-23 is priced at 4550 yuan/ton, Daye Special Steel's GCr15 Φ 20-40 is priced at 4600 yuan/ton, and Hegang Stone Steel's GCr15 Φ 131-180 is priced at 4250 yuan/ton.

【Regarding steel mills】

From November 29th to December 6th, no steel mills have released price adjustment information for this period. We should continue to pay attention to the impact of consumer demand and steel mill maintenance next week.

Ⅱ Next week's outlook

The market price of bearing steel has remained stable this week. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market still exists, and downstream parties continue to make stable purchases, resulting in a relatively small number of bulk orders in the market. In terms of inventory, social inventory continues to show a trend of destocking. Although some specification resources are in short supply, merchants have a relatively low willingness to replenish in order to ensure the stability of their capital chain, and often transact through stock adjustments. In the short term, the market price of bearing steel is still dominated by demand, and it is expected that the market price of bearing steel may continue to remain weak and stable next week.