Monthly Summary: The market price of bearing steel is expected to remain stable and rise in March

Monthly Summary: The market price of bearing steel is expected to remain stable and rise in March

Overview: In March, with the gradual recovery of market demand and a slight increase in raw material prices, businesses have positive expectations for the later period, and it is expected that the market price of bearing steel will steadily rise in March.

Ⅰ Domestic production of bearing steel

1. Bearing steel production in February 2025: Steel production increases month on month

According to the 21 samples collected by the Bearing Steel Research Group, the production of bearing steel by major special steel enterprises in China in February 2025 was 381300 tons. Among them, 311200 tons of rods accounted for 81.62%; 70100 tons of wire, accounting for 18.38%.

According to the research sample, it can be seen that the production of bearing steel bars and wires increased in February compared to the previous month. The total amount of bearing steel increased by 1.98% month on month, rod increased by 6.76%, and wire increased by 1.74%.

Ⅱ Performance of domestic bearing steel market

The overall market price of bearing steel in February showed a trend of first suppressing and then rising, with the overall amplitude narrowing. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in early February, market demand was weak, and businesses mainly sold inventory, resulting in a certain degree of decline in bearing steel prices. After mid February, the manufacturing industry gradually resumed work and production, which will drive the slow release of demand for bearing steel and lead to a rebound in prices. In terms of inventory, pre holiday ordering resources have recently arrived in stock, and the overall social inventory has slightly increased compared to last month.

Ⅲ Related market information

1. Raw material prices

There are a total of 62 collection points for the iron ore forward spot index information, with a sample size of 186 and a trading volume of 90000 tons. The standardized highest value of the 62% Australian Pink Index sample is 103.89, the lowest value is 102.87, and the average value is 103.38. The current iron ore fundamentals are weak in supply and strong in demand. In terms of supply, due to the impact of previous shipments, the number of ships arriving at the port has decreased, and the arrival volume has slightly declined. In terms of demand, research data within the week shows that 5 new blast furnaces will be repaired and 9 will resume production. With the improvement of finished material demand, steel mills' blast furnaces will gradually resume production, and the production of molten iron in this period will continue to rise slightly. In terms of inventory, the inventory of China's 47 port railway ore decreased month on month, and the absolute value is at a high level in the same period of the past three years. Overall, it is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate in the short term.

The current spot price of high carbon ferrochrome is 7500 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton or 4% from the beginning of the month. On February 28th, the spot price of high carbon ferrochrome remained stable, with coke prices, national freight rates, and electricity rates all operating steadily. The spot price of high-quality chrome ore powder increased by 1 yuan/ton, and the spot cost of high carbon ferrochrome increased by 2-5 yuan/50 basis tons. The upward trend of chrome ore continued this week, while coke prices continued to decline in other raw materials, and the overall cost increase slowed down. It is expected that the short-term cost of high carbon ferrochrome will mainly increase slightly.

The current price of scrap steel is 2150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.9% from the beginning of the month. This week, most of the electric arc furnace steel mills have resumed production, and most of them are at a low profit level. The steel mills have chosen staggered production, and the incremental space for scrap steel demand is limited. As of February 27th, the total inventory of scrap steel in 300 steel mills was 5.1213 million tons, and the inventory of steel mills is still in the stage of reducing inventory. There is still a short-term demand for steel mills to replenish inventory. In terms of the market, production enterprises have basically resumed work and production, and the market resources have slightly increased. Overall, the short-term market supply and demand have increased, and it is expected that scrap steel prices will fluctuate narrowly next week.

2. Downstream industry

According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in January were 2.45 million and 2.433 million respectively, a decrease of 27.2% and 30.5% compared to the previous month. It is expected that the overall automobile market will remain stable and make progress by 2025, with annual sales of around 33 million vehicles, of which the domestic market sales will be around 26 million vehicles, with a growth rate of 3.1%, and exports will be around 7 million vehicles. The characteristics of the car market in 2025 are obvious, with an estimated negative growth rate of 3% in the first quarter, with a negative growth rate of over 10% due to the Spring Festival factor in January. Due to the policy of scrapping and updating, exchanging old for new, and the tax reduction policy for new energy vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, the growth momentum in the fourth quarter of 2025 is estimated to be strong. Taking into account the overall macro situation and the development laws of the automotive industry, China's automotive industry has entered a stage of steady growth.

Ⅳ Summary

At present, the bearing steel market is showing a dual increase in supply and demand, with a slight accumulation of inventory. The downstream demand side is not performing well, and the market price is under pressure at this stage. However, with the intensification of policies and the comprehensive resumption of work and production in downstream industries in March, there may be some signs of further recovery in market demand in mid March. Overall, it is expected that the market price of bearing steel will steadily rise in March.