Monthly Summary: The market price of bearing steel may be stable and weak operation in June

Overview: In January-April 2025, the domestic bearing steel crude steel production fell by 6.18% year-on-year, and the bearing steel production increased by 5.67% year-on-year. Looking back on the May market, the trend between the south and the north is slightly differentiated, the overall demand side performance is general, the machinery and automotive industries purchase on demand, and there are fewer batch orders on the market.

I. Domestic bearing steel production

1. Bearing steel production in January-April 2025: crude steel fell year on year, steel increased year on year

According to the statistics of the Special Steel Association, in January-April 2025, China's main Yute steel enterprises bearing steel crude steel production is 167.36 million tons, down 6.18% compared to the same period last year; in January-April 2025, China's main Yute steel enterprises bearing steel production is 149.7 million tons, up 5.67% compared to the same period last year.

2. Bearing steel production in May 2025: steel production decreased

According to 21 samples of bearing steel research group statistics, in April 2025, China's main Yute steel enterprise bearing steel production of 3972,000 tons. Of these, bar 3313,000 tons, accounting for 83.41%; wire 67,000 tons, accounting for 16.87%.

According to the survey sample can be seen that in May, bearing steel bars and wire compared to the previous month were reduced. The total number of bearing steel rings decreased by 1.4%, the bar decreased by 0.73%, and the wire decreased by 3.04%.

3. January-April 2025 bearing steel production enterprises finished product production: steel plant total production increased slightly

At present, the largest production enterprises of bearing steel are: CITIC Special Steel (Xingcheng Steel, Daemetute Steel, Qingdao Special Steel), Jiyuan Steel and Giant Energy, accounting for 65.07% of the total production. In January-April 2025, the overall production of bearing steel slightly increased, among which the production of steel plants such as CITIC, Bon Steel, Jiyuan, Jiangsu Yong Steel and other steel plants increased compared to the same period last year, and the production of steel plants such as Giant Energy, Jianlong Beimang, Dongtai, Shi Steel and other steel plants decreased compared to the same period last year.

Ⅱ Domestic bearing steel market performance

In May, the bearing steel market as a whole showed a "weak balance of supply and demand, narrow price shock". Influenced by raw material cost fluctuations, downstream demand differentiation and policy factors, the price pressure operation is obvious, the bearing steel price fell slightly by 1% from April, converting the downward price range of 20-50 yuan / ton. In May, some steel factory repairs, supply and demand mitigation, but the terminal mentality is cautious, the purchasing momentum release is relatively restrained, and the market volume orders are low.Relevant market information

1. raw material price

Looking ahead to May, combined with seasonal patterns and recent weather conditions, global iron ore shipments are expected to decline in the next period; demand is expected to continue to decline in average iron ore production next Sunday; inventory is expected to be higher than the total unloading volume next week, and inventory in 47 ports in the next period may be slightly accumulated. Overall, the short-term iron ore price shock is weak.

The current spot price of high-carbon chromium iron is 8000 yuan / ton, down by 200 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month, down by 2.43%. On May 30, the spot price of high-carbon chromium iron runs smoothly, the price of chromium ore, the price of coke, the national shipping and electricity bills are stable, the immediate cost of high-carbon chromium iron runs smoothly, the market of raw materials chromium ore is calm before the festival, there is no centralized procurement downstream, the overall market is stable and weak, and the cost of high-carbon chromium iron is expected to decrease slightly in the short term.

The current price of scrap steel is 2040 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month, a decrease of 0.49%. As of the end of May, the overall consumption and inventory of scrap steel in the province's leading steel factory has doubled compared to the previous month, while the overall arrival level has also decreased due to the continued decline in the market at the end of the month. On the one hand, the cost-effectiveness advantage of scrap steel is now far behind iron water, the use of scrap steel is low, some steel factories have decreased in use, and on the other hand, due to the gradual reduction in production of some steel factories, the use of scrap steel has also decreased.

2. downstream industry

According to data released by the China Automotive Industry Association, in April 2025, production and sales of 2.619 million and 2.59 million vehicles were completed, respectively, down 12.9% and 11.2%, respectively, up 8.9% and 9.8% year-on-year. New energy vehicle production and sales completed 1.251 million and 1.226 million vehicles, respectively, down 2.0% and 0.9% year-on-year, respectively, up 48.3% and 46.2% year-on-year, respectively.

IV. Summary

In terms of cost, the price of iron ore and chromium ore in the raw materials may be stable, overlapping the steel plant's low inventory strategy, the cost downward space is limited, and the steel price forms a bottom support. In terms of supply, some enterprise maintenance ended in June, and the steel plant production remains stable. In terms of demand, the downstream demand for new energy vehicles and wind power bearings is stable, but there may be some support for the demand for bearing steel, but at this stage the market is cautious, more on-demand procurement, and merchants are optimistic about the short-term market situation.