Monthly Summary: The market price of bearing steel may fluctuate within a certain range in August

Monthly Summary: The market price of bearing steel may fluctuate within a certain range in August

Overview: From January to June 2025, the crude steel production of domestic bearing steel decreased by 4.8% year-on-year, while the production of bearing steel increased by 4.94% year-on-year. Looking back at the market situation in July, the terminal performance showed significant financial pressure, with a focus on on-demand procurement. However, at the end of the month, as futures and raw material prices rose, market prices followed suit. As of now, the absolute price index of domestic bearing steel is 4857 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the beginning of the month. At present, the willingness of traders and end-users to stock up is average, and the market generally adopts a cautious and wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the price of bearing steel market in August may fluctuate within a range.

Ⅰ Domestic production of bearing steel

1. Bearing steel production from January to June 2025: crude steel decreased year-on-year, steel increased year-on-year

According to statistics from the Special Steel Association, the crude steel production of bearing steel by major special steel enterprises in China from January to June 2025 was 2.4963 million tons, a decrease of 4.8% compared to the same period last year; The production of bearing steel by major special steel enterprises in China from January to June 2025 was 2.2929 million tons, an increase of 4.94% compared to the same period last year.

2. June 2025 Bearing Steel Production: Decrease in Steel Production on a Month on Month Basis

According to the 21 samples collected by the Bearing Steel Research Group, the production of bearing steel by major special steel enterprises in China in July 2025 was 394800 tons. Among them, 308100 tons of rods accounted for 78.04%; 86700 tons of wire, accounting for 21.96%. According to the Mysteel Bearing Steel Research Group's statistics of 28 samples (7 new), the production of bearing steel by major special steel enterprises in China in July 2025 was 459800 tons. Among them, 360100 tons of rods, accounting for 78.32%; 99700 tons of wire, accounting for 21.68%.

According to the 21 samples surveyed, it can be seen that the number of bearing steel bars in July decreased compared to the previous month, while the number of wire rods increased compared to the previous month. The total amount of bearing steel decreased by 2.4% month on month, rod decreased by 3.39%, and wire increased by 1.29%.

3. From January to June 2025, the output of finished products of various bearing steel production enterprises: the total output of steel mills increased slightly

At present, the production enterprises with large output of bearing steel are CITIC Special Steel (Xingcheng Special Steel, Daye Special Steel, Qingdao Special Steel), Jiyuan Steel, and Juneng, accounting for 66.93% of the total output. The overall production of bearing steel increased slightly from January to June 2025, with production from steel mills such as CITIC, Benxi Iron and Steel, Jiyuan, and Jiangsu Yonggang increasing compared to the same period last year. Production from steel mills such as Juneng, Zhongtian, Jianlong Beiman, and Shigang all decreased compared to the same period last year.

4. Performance of domestic bearing steel market

In July, the bearing steel market experienced mixed ups and downs. At the beginning of the month, prices were partially affected by demand, and at the end of the month, the black market saw an increase in costs. Steel mills raised their prices, and in some areas, the prices of bearing steel increased. Especially in the East China region, there has been a significant increase in prices. At present, the competition for low-priced products in the market is fierce, and high-end materials enjoy premium space due to technological barriers. However, the changes in market transactions are not obvious, and terminal procurement is mainly based on "small batches and on-demand", with insufficient support for overall demand growth. Overall, it is expected that the price of bearing steel will fluctuate within a range in August.

Ⅱ Related market information

1. Raw material prices

The 62% Australian flour forward price index is 100.05 US dollars per dry ton, an increase of 6.45 yuan per ton from the beginning of the month, with a growth rate of 6.9%. From a fundamental perspective, the supply and demand of iron ore have both declined. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipping volume slightly rebounded to 31.091 million tons on a month on month basis, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2 million tons this year; The arrival volume of 47 MTR ore at the port fell to 25.118 million tons month on month, fulfilling the low shipment of Australian ore in early July. On the demand side, the daily average of molten iron in this period (7.18-7.25) was 2.4223 million tons, a decrease of 0.21 million tons compared to the previous period; Recently, the profit margin of steel mills has continued to increase to 63.64% month on month, and most steel mills have good profitability. There are currently no large-scale new maintenance plans, and the daily average production of molten iron in the short term remains above 2.4 million tons. On the inventory side, China's 47 port railway ore inventory slightly accumulated 141700 tons on a month on month basis, with a decrease of 12.15 million tons from the beginning of the year. At the industrial level, production continues to decline slightly, demand continues to slow down, the speed of destocking is basically maintained, the inventory to consumption ratio remains low, and the pressure on steel mills' inventory has not yet manifested. Overall, it is expected that the short-term upward momentum of iron ore prices will weaken, the risk of pullback will increase, and the wide range of fluctuations has not yet ended.

The current spot price of high carbon ferrochrome is 7800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month. In June, there were 81 high carbon ferrochrome production enterprises in operation. The production of high carbon ferrochrome in July 2025 was 801400 tons, an increase of 3.38% month on month and a decrease of 0.05% year-on-year. In early August, low-priced chromium ore resources may gradually arrive, reducing the production cost of chromium iron factories. Although the purchase price of chromium iron by steel mills has fallen, the overall profit margin still exists, and the production willingness of factories has not been affected. Moreover, the increase in production resumption of some maintenance factories in the north will continue to be reflected in August, and the output may continue to increase. On the other hand, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the military parade related policies have an indirect impact on the production of chromium iron in August. It is expected that the total production of high carbon chromium iron in China will continue to remain high in August 2025.

The current price of scrap steel is 2120 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton or 3.41% from the beginning of the month. In July, driven by temporary positive news, the overall price of scrap steel market rose. From the market situation at the end of the month, the price showed a slight correction after continuous increases. At the same time, with the driving force of some market news, the frequency of scrap steel price fluctuations is also increasing. Due to the lack of significant improvement in the use of scrap steel by steel mills, and considering the overall low level of receiving resources in the market, coupled with the possibility of periodic market news stimulation next month, it is expected that the price of scrap steel in the province will continue to rise in August, but mostly maintain a narrow range of consolidation, with fluctuations ranging from 20-30 yuan/ton.

2. Downstream industry

From January to June 2025, the production and sales of automobiles reached 15.621 million and 15.653 million respectively, an increase of 12.5% and 11.4% year-on-year. In June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, an increase of 26.4% and 26.7% year-on-year. In terms of exports, a total of 3.473 million vehicles were exported from January to June, a year-on-year increase of 18.6%. Since the beginning of this year, major economic indicators in the automotive industry have shown a growth trend. Due to a relatively low base in the same period of the first quarter, with growth rates exceeding double digits, the overall growth rate slowed down after the second quarter compared to the first quarter. In the first half of the year, domestic sales slightly increased year-on-year, and terminal inventory was higher than normal levels; The export of automobiles maintains rapid growth, making a significant contribution to driving overall market growth, while the growth rate of new energy vehicle exports has slowed down significantly; The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to maintain rapid growth, and their market share is steadily increasing. However, due to the relatively serious internal competition among peers, in order to ensure cost reduction, efficiency improvement, and increase market share, some car companies have lowered their steel standards, which has to some extent affected the industry situation. At the same time, due to the electronicization of new energy vehicles, the frequency of updates and replacements is higher, and the price reduction ratio of old cars continues to expand, exacerbating the pressure of inventory digestion. At the same time, from the perspective of production saturation and industry mentality, the overall situation remains under pressure. In the short term, the steel consumption in the automotive industry may experience a slight decline.

Ⅲ Summary

In terms of cost, the price increase of raw materials such as iron ore and chromium ore this month has been greater than that of finished products. Steel mills are tentatively following the price increase, but the acceptance of the terminal is limited, and the transaction volume is weak after the increase. On the other hand, it also shows that the bottom price of bearing steel is supported. In terms of supply, some enterprises completed maintenance in August, and overall production remained stable. The growth of production is constrained by the release of demand, and it is expected that the production in September will be around 450000 tons. According to research, at present, terminal funds are under great pressure, and procurement is mainly based on demand. In terms of policies, with the acceleration of the landing of wind power and new energy projects, the consumption of bearing steel in high-end fields will be stabilized. Overall, it is expected that the market price of bearing steel in August will fluctuate within a certain range.