Monthly Summary: The market price of bearing steel may be under pressure in September

Monthly Summary: The market price of bearing steel may be under pressure in September

Overview: From January to July 2025, the crude steel production of domestic bearing steel decreased by 3.99% year-on-year, while the production of bearing steel increased by 3.66% year-on-year. Looking back at the market situation in August, with the support of raw material costs, the price of bearing steel has slightly increased, but the downstream on-demand procurement model has constrained the upward space. As of now, the absolute price index of domestic bearing steel is 4882 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton or 0.5% from the beginning of the month. High costs provide support for prices, but there are no obvious signs of improvement on the demand side. Downstream suppliers continue to purchase according to demand, and it is expected that the market price of bearing steel will be under pressure in September.

Ⅰ Domestic production of bearing steel

1. Bearing steel production from January to July 2025: crude steel decreased year-on-year, steel increased year-on-year

According to statistics from the Special Steel Association, the crude steel production of bearing steel by major special steel enterprises in China from January to July 2025 was 2.8628 million tons, a decrease of 3.99% compared to the same period last year; The production of bearing steel by major special steel enterprises in China from January to July 2025 was 2.6654 million tons, an increase of 3.66% compared to the same period last year.

2. Bearing steel production in August 2025: decrease in steel production compared to the previous month

According to the Mysteel Bearing Steel Research Group's statistics of 21 samples, the production of bearing steel by major special steel enterprises in China in August 2025 was 385400 tons. Among them, 298500 tons of rods, accounting for 77.45%; 86500 tons of wire, accounting for 22.55%. According to the Mysteel Bearing Steel Research Group's statistics of 28 samples (7 new), the production of bearing steel by major special steel enterprises in China in August 2025 was 452200 tons. Among them, 348300 tons of rods accounted for 77.02%; 103900 tons of wire, accounting for 29.83%.

According to the 21 samples surveyed, it can be seen that the number of bearing steel bars in August decreased compared to the previous month, while the number of wire rods increased compared to the previous month. The total amount of bearing steel decreased by 2.38% month on month, rod decreased by 3.12%, and wire increased by 0.23%.

3. From January to July 2025, the output of finished materials of various bearing steel production enterprises: the total output of steel mills increased slightly

At present, the production enterprises with large output of bearing steel are CITIC Special Steel (Xingcheng Special Steel, Daye Special Steel, Qingdao Special Steel), Jiyuan Steel, and Juneng, accounting for 67.08% of the total output. The overall production of bearing steel increased slightly from January to July 2025, with production from steel mills such as CITIC, Benxi Iron and Steel, Jiyuan, and Jiangsu Yonggang increasing compared to the same period last year. Production from steel mills such as Juneng, Zhongtian, Jianlong Beiman, and Shigang all decreased compared to the same period last year.

Ⅱ Performance of domestic bearing steel market

The bearing steel market fluctuated in August, with weak market demand at the beginning of the month and price pressure; At the end of the month, benefiting from the strengthening of the futures market and the increase in raw material costs, steel mills tentatively raised their quotes, pushing market prices slightly upward. However, the downstream on-demand procurement model constrained the upward space. At present, the competition for low-priced products in the market is still fierce, and high-end materials enjoy premium space due to technological barriers. Overall, it is expected that the price of bearing steel will be under pressure in September.

Ⅲ Related market information

1. Raw material prices

The 62% Australian flour forward price index is 101.3 US dollars per dry ton, an increase of 4.55 US dollars per dry ton from the beginning of the month, with a growth rate of 4.63%. With the increase in momentum from Australian mines and the resumption of shipments from non mainstream mines, it is expected that the supply side will maintain a high month on month and continue to grow by 5 million tons year-on-year; At the same time, with the problem of high shipment levels in the early stage, it is expected that if there is no typhoon affecting the port volume in September, it may reach a new high again; On the demand side, due to environmental issues, there has been a slight decline compared to the previous period, and the trend of port inventory accumulation may expand. Overall, during the macro policy blank period in September, the operation of iron ore prices once again returned to fundamental dominance. The current oversupply pattern of iron ore has intensified, coupled with inventory pressure on the finished product end, and the negative feedback risk of the entire black market has greatly increased; However, considering the current profitability of steel mills and the expectation of steel mills replenishing inventory in September, the price is unlikely to fall below the previous low point; It is expected that the price of iron ore in September will show a trend of first falling and then rising, with prices fluctuating in the range of $95-105; If the mature end continues to maintain a rapid accumulation trend, the price of iron ore may fall below $90.

The current spot price of high carbon ferrochrome is 8300 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a growth rate of 6.02%. In August, there were 82 high carbon ferrochrome production enterprises in operation. The production of high carbon ferrochrome in August 2025 was 813800 tons, an increase of 1.55% month on month and 2.68% year-on-year. The main production area in Inner Mongolia produced 600800 tons in August, an increase of 1.38% month on month and 13.16% year-on-year. The cumulative total production of high carbon ferrochrome in China from January to August 2025 was 5.6319 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.13%. In September, the long-term purchase price of ferrochrome from steel mills increased by 300 yuan compared to the previous month, and lower priced chrome ore futures resources may gradually arrive, reducing the production cost of ferrochrome factories. Factory profits continue to improve significantly, and production willingness remains high. In addition, the production of stainless steel crude steel increased in September, entering the Golden September period, which supports the demand and price of raw ferrochrome. Currently, many factories maintain high operating rates. Combined with the fact that some companies that had previously reduced production in September may resume production, it is expected that the total domestic production of high carbon ferrochrome will increase slightly in September 2025.

The current price of scrap steel is 2150 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton or 1.42% from the beginning of the month. As of August 28th, the average operating rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel plants was 75.1%, a decrease of 0.59% on a weekly basis and an increase of 0.89% on a monthly basis; The capacity utilization rate is 56.54%, with a weekly decrease of 0.13% and a month on month decrease of 0.51%. The average cost of independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills is 3363 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 26 yuan/ton; The average profit is -118 yuan/ton, and the profit of GuDian is -21 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 33 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The electric furnace factory has entered a state of loss, with a slight decline in production status but limited decline. It is expected that the decline will expand in mid to late September. In terms of inventory, the current inventory level is basically the same as the same period in previous years. Based on the trend of total inventory in previous years and the current supply situation, it is speculated that the scrap steel inventory of steel mills is still difficult to see a significant increase in reserve before the National Day holiday in October this year. The inventory trend in September will mainly decrease slightly, and after experiencing a significant decrease in consumption after the holiday, it will officially enter the early reserve mode in the fourth quarter. From the current situation of low social inventory and tight market resource supply, steel mill scrap inventory will continue to operate at a low level for a long time, and inventory will continue to provide stable support for the market.

2. Downstream industry

From January to July 2025, the production and sales of automobiles reached 18.212 million and 18.246 million respectively, an increase of 12.5% and 11.4% year-on-year. In July, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, an increase of 13.3% and 14.7% year-on-year. In terms of exports, a total of 4.17 million vehicles were exported from January to July, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%. Among them, 225000 new energy vehicles were exported, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times. At present, the inventory pressure of multiple car companies has further increased. Due to the further increase in the industry's replacement cycle, the competition pressure is also continuing to increase, and the internal competition has been maintained for a relatively long time. As a sales off-season, the inventory digestion rate of car companies has declined, and price reductions and discounts have become the mainstream promotional methods for car companies. However, due to the relatively serious internal competition among peers, in order to ensure cost reduction, efficiency improvement, and increase market share, some car companies have lowered their steel standards, which has to some extent affected the industry situation. At the same time, due to the electronicization of new energy vehicles, the frequency of updates and replacements is higher, and the price reduction ratio of old cars continues to expand, exacerbating the pressure of inventory digestion. At the same time, from the perspective of production saturation and industry mentality, the overall situation remains under pressure. In the short term, the steel consumption in the automotive industry may experience a slight decline.

Ⅳ Summary

In terms of cost, the price increase of raw materials such as iron ore and chromium ore this month has been greater than that of finished products, and steel mills have followed suit with price increases. However, the acceptance rate of end-users is limited, and the transaction volume is weak after the increase. In terms of supply, some large bearing enterprises have recently extended their industrial chain upstream, producing bearing steel on their own. The overall output has slightly increased, and it is expected to reach around 460000 tons in October. In terms of demand, downstream industry procurement is still mainly based on demand, resulting in significant financial pressure on end-users. Although industries such as automobiles and machinery have experienced seasonal recovery, the overall demand growth support is not significant. Overall, it is expected that the market price of bearing steel will be under pressure in September.