Monthly Summary: The market price of bearing steel may be under pressure in October

Monthly Summary: The market price of bearing steel may be under pressure in October

Overview: From January to August 2025, the crude steel production of domestic bearing steel decreased by 5.31% year-on-year, while the production of bearing steel increased by 2% year-on-year. Looking back at the market situation in September, the overall transaction performance of the market was average, with limited new orders from downstream bearing companies. Most companies maintained rigid demand procurement and had low acceptance of high priced resources. As of now, the absolute price index of domestic bearing steel is 4877 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 0.1% from the beginning of the month. Terminal procurement is mainly based on "small orders on demand", and it is expected that the market price of bearing steel in October may be weakly stable.

Ⅰ Domestic production of bearing steel

1. Bearing steel production from January to August 2025: crude steel decreased year-on-year, steel increased year-on-year

According to statistics from the Special Steel Association, the crude steel production of bearing steel by major special steel enterprises in China from January to August 2025 was 3.2843 million tons, a decrease of 5.31% compared to the same period last year; The production of bearing steel by major special steel enterprises in China from January to July 2025 was 3.025 million tons, an increase of 2% compared to the same period last year.

2. Bearing steel production in September 2025: decrease in steel production compared to the previous month

According to the 21 samples collected by the Bearing Steel Research Group, the production of bearing steel by major special steel enterprises in China in September 2025 was 375700 tons. Among them, 288500 tons of rods accounted for 76.79%; 90200 tons of wire, accounting for 24.01%. According to the Mysteel Bearing Steel Research Group's statistics of 28 samples (7 new), the production of bearing steel by major special steel enterprises in China in August 2025 was 433500 tons. Among them, 329300 tons of rods, accounting for 75.96%; 107200 tons of wire, accounting for 32.55%.

According to the 21 samples surveyed, it can be seen that the number of bearing steel bars in September decreased compared to the previous month, while the number of wire rods increased compared to the previous month. The total amount of bearing steel decreased by 2.52% month on month, rod decreased by 3.35%, and wire increased by 3.8%.

3. From January to August 2025, the output of finished materials of various bearing steel production enterprises: the total output of steel mills increased slightly

At present, the production enterprises with large output of bearing steel are CITIC Special Steel (Xingcheng Special Steel, Daye Special Steel, Qingdao Special Steel), Jiyuan Steel, and Juneng, accounting for 67.46% of the total output. The overall production of bearing steel increased slightly from January to August 2025, with production from steel mills such as CITIC, Benxi Iron and Steel, and Jiangsu Yonggang increasing compared to the same period last year. Production from steel mills such as Juneng, Jiyuan, Zhongtian, Jianlong Beiman, and Shigang all decreased compared to the same period last year.

Ⅱ Performance of domestic bearing steel market

The bearing steel market operated weakly in September. The current market sentiment is somewhat cautious, and traders have a strong willingness to ship. Some merchants have chosen to offer small discounts to promote transactions due to shipping pressure. Under the continuous game of cost support and weak demand, the market is caught in a dilemma of ups and downs. Overall, it is expected that the market price of bearing steel will be under pressure in October, showing a narrow range of fluctuations. It cannot be ruled out that some markets may experience a slight decline due to inventory and shipment pressures.

Ⅲ Related market information

1. Raw material prices

The 62% Australian flour forward price index is $102.9 per dry ton, an increase of $0.1 per dry ton from the beginning of the month, with a growth rate of 0.09%. The current average price for September is $104.94 per ton. After the rise in iron ore prices this month, they fluctuated at a high level. In terms of iron ore prices, the 62% Australian Powder Index rose more than the main swap contract of the Singapore Exchange, and the main iron ore futures contract rose more than the PB powder price of Qingdao Port. Looking ahead to October, China's iron ore supply and demand may show narrow fluctuations in supply and demand compared to the previous month. On the supply side, the daily average shipping volume of iron ore in October is expected to decline seasonally, decrease month on month, and increase year-on-year; Based on the comprehensive analysis of previous shipments, floating inventory, and arrival ratios, the expected arrival volume at 47 ports is expected to show a slight decrease compared to the previous period and an increase compared to the same period last year. On the demand side, high levels of molten iron may create supply pressure on the fundamentals of finished products. In October, there may be a contradiction or further accumulation of finished product inventory. According to the current plan to stop and resume production of blast furnaces, it is expected that the average monthly molten iron production will remain at a high level of over 2.4 million tons. If the pressure on finished product inventory rises, it may trigger a negative feedback market in the market. It is not ruled out that some regional steel mills may reduce production in the second half of October due to losses. Overall, the inventory of Chinese iron ore ports in October 2025 may show a slight accumulation trend, and the monthly average iron ore price may decrease compared to the previous month.

The current spot price of high carbon ferrochrome is 8600 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton or 3.61% from the beginning of the month. Spot demand for chrome ore has slightly decreased, and port trading has remained flat. Among them, the price of Zimbabwean chrome powder has slightly decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton. As of September 28th, the cost range in Inner Mongolia is 7921-8343 yuan/50 basis tons, and the national average cost is 8485 yuan/50 basis tons. After the mainstream steel mills established an upward trend in procurement prices in October, the confidence of the factories has been stabilized, and the quotations have remained firm. This week, the mainstream ex factory quotation of chromium iron in the north remained stable at around 8600 yuan/50 basis tons. As the holiday approaches, downstream inquiries and procurement activities have basically entered the final stage, and actual market transactions have followed the overall market trend to become weaker. Currently, the chromium iron market is in a stable transition period before the holiday, and the market bottom support is stable. The market is currently paying more attention to whether the crude steel production of stainless steel in October is favorable to the market. It is expected that the short-term price will continue to operate steadily, and the market is expected to regain activity after the holiday.

The current price of scrap steel is 2130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.94% from the beginning of the month. Currently, prices have bottomed out and rebounded in the third quarter, with scrap steel prices gradually rising under the stimulation of macroeconomic positive news. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, based on the fundamentals of scrap steel, the supply and demand of scrap steel are still in a tight balance. From a macro perspective, policy measures have been intensified, anti internal competition policies have broken the low price economy, and both supply and demand have strengthened market confidence, providing some support for the bottom of scrap steel prices. At the same time, the fourth quarter is the final transitional period for reverse invoicing of scrap steel. After reverse invoicing of scrap steel, the overall cost of scrap steel increases, and the increased cost will gradually be absorbed by steel mills and the market, which may lead to an increase in purchasing costs for steel mills and a possible decrease in market prices. Therefore, it is expected that the absolute price of MySSpic scrap steel will fluctuate upwards in the fourth quarter, while the average price of heavy waste in the market cities may continue to decline. Considering the contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality may become more prominent, the space for the upward movement of scrap steel prices is relatively limited. It is expected that the average price of scrap steel for the whole year of 2025 will be 2425 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.72% compared to the average price in 2024.

2. Downstream industry

From January to August, the production and sales of automobiles reached 21.051 million and 21.128 million respectively, an increase of 12.7% and 12.6% year-on-year. The production growth rate remained the same as that of January to July, while the sales growth rate expanded by 0.6 percentage points. In August, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.815 million and 2.856 million units respectively, an increase of 12.96% and 10.43% year-on-year, and an increase of 8.6% and 10.1% month on month. According to Mysteel's research, there has been a slight increase in overall orders in the automotive industry. At present, the increase in orders still remains among the top enterprises, while the overall production schedule of car factories is further accelerating, resulting in an increase in the proportion of new orders and driving an increase in daily raw material consumption. From the year-on-year comparison of the industry, the overall development of the automotive industry still mostly maintains the previous state and has not shown a sharp increase. At the same time, as the off-season for the automotive industry, the overall inventory ratio of car manufacturers is gradually increasing, which to some extent increases the pressure of destocking. The overall emotional state of the industry remains relatively calm. In terms of policies, with the increase of consumer subsidies, the efficiency of exchanging old for new has further increased. With further updates in battery technology, the energy density of batteries has increased, leading to a gradual increase in the market share of new energy vehicles in the northern region. In the case of relatively low comprehensive consumption ratio, most consumers gradually shift their car buying plans to new energy vehicles, which to some extent further impacts traditional energy vehicles. At the same time, with the increasing proportion of new energy in commercial vehicles, the application of extended range and pure electric heavy-duty trucks in infrastructure projects is becoming more and more widespread. At the same time, due to the maturity of AI technology, the volume of unmanned commercial vehicles and excavators is also increasing, which will to some extent promote the transformation of the industry. In the short term, there may be a slight increase in steel consumption in the automotive industry.

Ⅳ Summary

In terms of cost, the raw material chromium iron maintains strong and stable operation in the short term, but there is resistance from downstream to cost transmission, which suppresses the room for increase in bearing steel. On the supply side, according to research, as market prices decrease in September and October, steel mills' profits shrink, and they begin to adjust their production plans. The pressure on bearing steel supply in October may ease to some extent. In terms of demand, the inventory pressure of current car companies has intensified, and price reduction promotion has become the mainstream strategy. The year-on-year growth of new energy vehicle exports may become a potential growth in demand for bearing steel. However, orders in traditional engineering machinery and other fields are relatively average. Due to terminal financial pressure and wait-and-see sentiment, procurement is still mainly based on demand, making it difficult to significantly increase volume. Overall, it is expected that the market price of bearing steel will remain weakly stable in October.