Monthly Summary: The market price of bearing steel may be fluctuate and weaken in November

  Monthly Summary: The market price of bearing steel may be fluctuate and weaken in November

Overview: From January to September 2025, the crude steel production of domestic bearing steel decreased by 2.73% year-on-year, while the production of bearing steel increased by 1.83% year-on-year. Looking back at the market situation in October, the overall operation pattern of the national bearing steel market is characterized by "local pressure and supply-demand game". But traders voluntarily offered discounts to ease inventory pressure, leading to a "dilemma of ups and downs" in the market. The market prices show significant differentiation, with high-end product prices relatively firm, while ordinary continuous casting faces sales pressure. As of now, the absolute price index of domestic bearing steel is 4867 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the beginning of the month. Overall, it is expected that the market price of bearing steel in November may fluctuate and weaken.

Ⅰ Domestic production of bearing steel

1. Bearing steel production from January to September 2025: crude steel decreased year-on-year, steel increased year-on-year

According to statistics from the Special Steel Association, the crude steel production of bearing steel by major special steel enterprises in China from January to September 2025 was 3.66 million tons, a decrease of 2.73% compared to the same period last year; The production of bearing steel by major special steel enterprises in China from January to September 2025 was 3.36 million tons, an increase of 1.83% compared to the same period last year.

2. Bearing steel production in October 2025: Steel production increases month on month

According to the 21 samples collected by the Bearing Steel Research Group, the production of bearing steel by major special steel enterprises in China in October 2025 was 377300 tons. Among them, 285600 tons of rods accounted for 75.7%; 9.17 million tons of wire, accounting for 24.3%. According to the 28 samples (7 new) collected by the Bearing Steel Research Group, the production of bearing steel by major special steel enterprises in China in August 2025 was 435600 tons. Among them, there are 328400 tons of rods, accounting for 75.39%; 107200 tons of wire, accounting for 32.64%.

According to the research sample, it can be seen that the number of bearing steel bars in October decreased compared to the previous month, while the number of wire rods increased compared to the previous month. Combined with the maintenance of bearing steel production enterprises in September and the resumption of production in October, it will affect some of the output.

3. From January to September 2025, the output of finished materials of various bearing steel production enterprises: the total output of steel mills increased slightly

At present, the production enterprises with large output of bearing steel are CITIC Special Steel (Xingcheng Special Steel, Daye Special Steel, Qingdao Special Steel), Jiyuan Steel, and Juneng, accounting for 67.97% of the total output. The overall production of bearing steel increased slightly from January to September 2025, with production from steel mills such as CITIC, Benxi Iron and Steel, and Jiangsu Yonggang increasing compared to the same period last year. Production from steel mills such as Juneng, Zhongtian, Jianlong Beiman, and Shigang all decreased compared to the same period last year.

Ⅱ Price performance of domestic bearing steel market

The overall performance of the bearing steel market price in October was weak and stable, accompanied by local fluctuations and a downward trend. This month, the market was dominated by weak downstream demand and increased pressure on traders to ship, resulting in limited price fluctuations ranging from around 20-50 yuan/ton. This was particularly evident in the mid to late stages, with some regions experiencing a decline in bearing steel market prices. At present, the market mentality is gradually turning bearish, only looking at downstream industries such as automobiles and machinery combined with the "Double Eleven" promotion situation, which may provide bottom support for prices. Overall, it is expected that the market price of bearing steel will continue to fluctuate downward in November.

Ⅲ Related market information

1. Raw material prices

The 62% Australian flour forward price index is $106.25 per dry ton, an increase of $2.9 per dry ton from the beginning of the month, with a growth rate of 2.81%. From a fundamental perspective, the supply and demand of iron ore have both increased. On the supply side, the global iron ore transportation volume slightly increased month on month to 33.335 million tons, which is at a higher level than the same period in previous years. This year, the cumulative year-on-year increase is 19.11 million tons; The arrival volume of 47 MTR ore at the port has dropped to 26.763 million tons compared to the previous period. On the demand side, the daily average of molten iron in this period was 2.399 million tons, a decrease of 10500 tons compared to the previous period. Due to the continuous decline in finished product prices, the scope of losses for steel mills has further expanded, and the profitability of 247 sample steel mills has dropped to the lowest level this year, with a month on month decline of 47.62%. On the inventory side, China's 47 port railway ore inventory has accumulated 1.476 million tons month on month, currently at 151 million tons. Looking ahead to next week, on the supply side, the global iron ore shipping volume will decrease month on month, and the arrival volume will decrease month on month. On the demand side, Tangshan's environmental protection measures will be tightened, and the national iron production may decrease compared to the previous week. On the inventory side, the iron ore inventory at Port 47 has slightly accumulated month on month. In summary, next week's iron ore prices may be prone to decline but difficult to rise.

The current spot price of high carbon ferrochrome is 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton or 3.49% from the beginning of the month. As of October 28th, the SF-EF process cost in Inner Mongolia is 7900 yuan/50 basis tons, and the EF process cost is 8222 yuan/50 basis tons. The EF process cost of Guizhou local power grid is 8522 yuan/50 basis tons, and the EF process cost of Southern power grid is 7964 yuan/50 basis tons. The current cost range is 7900-9000 yuan/50 basis tons, with an average cost of 8382 yuan/50 basis tons. At present, the spot price of high carbon ferrochrome is running steadily, while the price of coke, national freight, and electricity are all stable. The price of chromite has slightly decreased by 0.25-0.5 yuan/ton, and the immediate cost of high carbon ferrochrome has decreased by 4-23 yuan/50 basis tons. Chromium iron steel has been put on the market, but some steel mills are rumored to reduce production next month. Confidence in chrome ore quotations is still insufficient, and it is expected that the cost of high carbon ferrochrome will remain stable in the short term.

The current price of scrap steel is 2120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton or 0.47% from the beginning of the month. Due to recent reductions in production and maintenance by steel mills, as well as rising tax costs, the amount of scrap used by steel mills has decreased, leading to a decrease in their willingness to collect scrap. As a result, the price of scrap steel has not significantly increased in the black market. Considering the fluctuation and decline of the snail market, the speed of downstream market shipments is accelerating, and some steel mills in the surrounding area may continue to lower the price of scrap steel. It is expected that scrap steel will operate weakly in a narrow range in the short term.

2. Downstream industry

In September, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.276 million and 3.226 million respectively, an increase of 17.1% and 14.9% year-on-year. For the first time in history, the production and sales of automobiles exceeded 3 million units during the same period, and the monthly year-on-year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months. In September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, an increase of 23.7% and 24.6% year-on-year, setting a new historical high. From the year-on-year comparison of the industry, the overall development of the automotive industry still mostly maintains the previous state and has not shown a sharp increase. In terms of policies, with the increase of consumer subsidies, the efficiency of exchanging old for new has further increased. With further updates in battery technology, the energy density of batteries has increased, leading to a gradual increase in the market share of new energy vehicles in the northern region. In the case of relatively low comprehensive consumption ratio, most consumers gradually shift their car buying plans to new energy vehicles, which to some extent further impacts traditional energy vehicles. At the same time, with the increasing proportion of new energy in commercial vehicles, the application of extended range and pure electric heavy-duty trucks in infrastructure projects is becoming more and more widespread. At the same time, due to the maturity of AI technology, the volume of unmanned commercial vehicles and excavators is also increasing, which will to some extent promote the transformation of the industry. In the short term, the steel consumption in the automotive industry may continue to increase slightly.

Ⅳ Summary

In October, the market price of bearing steel continued the weak and stable trend before the National Day holiday, with minimal overall fluctuations. The market sentiment was cautious, and the transaction pace was slow. On the supply side, according to research, in October and November, as market prices decrease and steel mills' profits shrink, they begin to adjust their production plans and determine their maintenance schedule for November. This may alleviate the pressure on bearing steel supply in November. In terms of demand, some downstream industries generally adopt the "on-demand procurement" model and lack the willingness to proactively stock up. However, the growth rate of new energy vehicles is expected to become the potential for the increase in demand for bearing steel. However, the order situation in traditional construction machinery and other fields is relatively average, and due to the pressure of terminal funds and wait-and-see sentiment, procurement is still mainly based on on-demand procurement, making it difficult to achieve significant volume increases. Overall, it is expected that high-end bearing steel orders in fields such as new energy and aerospace will remain stable, providing strong support for the overall price system. The competition pressure for mid to low end bearing steel is increasing, and businesses may experience market price fluctuations and weaken in order to ship and collect payments.