Monthly Summary: The market price of bearing steel may be under pressure in December

 Monthly Summary: The market price of bearing steel may be under pressure in December

Overview: From January to October 2025, the crude steel production of domestic bearing steel decreased by 0.36% year-on-year, while the production of bearing steel increased by 3.43% year-on-year. Looking back at the market situation in November, the bearing steel market showed a trend of regional differentiation and high-end development. The East China market remained strong due to the concentration of high-end products, while the mid to low end products in the North China Liaocheng market were under pressure due to weak demand. As of now, the absolute price index of domestic bearing steel is 4857 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the beginning of the month. Overall, it is expected that the market price of bearing steel will be under pressure in December.

Ⅰ Domestic production of bearing steel

1. Bearing steel production from January to October 2025: crude steel decreased year-on-year, steel increased year-on-year

According to statistics from the Special Steel Association, the crude steel production of bearing steel by major special steel enterprises in China from January to October 2025 was 4.05 million tons, a decrease of 0.36% compared to the same period last year; The production of bearing steel by major special steel enterprises in China from January to October 2025 was 3.72 million tons, an increase of 3.43% compared to the same period last year.

2. Bearing steel production in November 2025: Steel production increases month on month

According to the Mysteel Bearing Steel Research Group's statistics of 21 samples, the production of bearing steel by major special steel enterprises in China in October 2025 was 382400 tons. Among them, there are 292900 tons of rods, accounting for 76.6%; 89500 tons of wire, accounting for 23.4%. According to the Mysteel Bearing Steel Research Group's statistics of 28 samples (7 new), the production of bearing steel by major special steel enterprises in China in November 2025 was 442900 tons. Among them, 337400 tons of rods accounted for 76.18%; 105500 tons of wire, accounting for 23.82%.

According to the research sample, it can be seen that the number of bearing steel bars in November increased slightly compared to the previous month, while the number of wire rods decreased slightly compared to the previous month. During October to November, some bearing steel production enterprises flexibly adjusted their production lines. Meanwhile, the maintenance schedule of steel mills in November will result in some production being affected.

3. From January to October 2025, the output of finished materials of various bearing steel production enterprises: the total output of steel mills increased slightly

At present, the production enterprises with large output of bearing steel are CITIC Special Steel (Xingcheng Special Steel, Daye Special Steel, Qingdao Special Steel), Jiyuan Steel, and Juneng, accounting for 68.21% of the total output. The overall production of bearing steel increased slightly from January to October 2025, with production from steel mills such as CITIC, Benxi Iron and Steel, and Jiangsu Yonggang increasing compared to the same period last year. Production from steel mills such as Juneng, Zhongtian, Jianlong Beiman, and Shigang all decreased compared to the same period last year.

Ⅱ Price performance of domestic bearing steel market

In November, the supply-demand contradiction in the bearing steel market was particularly prominent, mainly due to traders actively lowering prices and shipping to alleviate inventory pressure. The prices of high-end products remain firm, while the competition in the mid to low end market is becoming increasingly fierce, resulting in a slight decline in market prices. After entering the second half of the year, some steel mills chose to produce in stages due to high production costs but no significant increase in market prices, which eased the market supply situation. Overall, it is expected that the market price of bearing steel will be under pressure in December.

Ⅲ Related market information

1. Raw material prices

The Mysteel 62% Australian Pink Forward Price Index is $104.7 per dry ton, a decrease of $1.6 per dry ton or 1.5% from the beginning of the month. The average price in November was $103.8 per ton. As of November 28th, the daily average production of molten iron in 247 sample steel plants was 2.3468 million tons/day, a decrease of 16000 tons/day compared to the previous week, a decrease of 60300 tons/day compared to the beginning of the year, and a year-on-year increase of 8100 tons/day. This period, 10 blast furnaces will be repaired and 3 blast furnaces will resume production. Blast furnace maintenance mainly occurs in the southern region, mainly due to the expansion of losses and weakened demand. Annual inspections are carried out on blast furnaces, and except for a few blast furnaces that resume production next week, most of them are medium - to long-term maintenance; The resumption of blast furnace production occurs in Hebei and Jiangsu regions, and it is planned to resume production after the blast furnace maintenance is completed. According to the blast furnace shutdown and resumption plan, it is expected that the molten iron will continue to decline in the next period. Overall, it is expected that on the supply side, the global iron ore shipping volume will slightly decline compared to the previous period, and the arrival volume will slightly decrease compared to the previous period. On the demand side, the national iron production may continue to decline month on month next week. On the inventory side, the iron ore inventory at Port 47 has accumulated month on month. In summary, iron ore prices may continue to fluctuate next week.

The current spot price of high carbon ferrochrome is 8000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton or 2.44% from the beginning of the month. As of November 28, 2025, Mysteel surveyed a total of 177 high carbon ferrochrome smelting enterprises nationwide, with 80 high carbon ferrochrome production enterprises in production in November. The production of high carbon ferrochrome in November 2025 was 881400 tons, an increase of 6.84% month on month and 22.35% year-on-year. The main production area in Inner Mongolia produced 658000 tons in November, an increase of 9.18% month on month and 23.27% year-on-year. The cumulative total production of high carbon ferrochrome in China from January to November 2025 was 8.1408 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.72%. The long-term purchase price of mainstream steel mills in December fell by 100 yuan compared to the previous month, better than market expectations. Coupled with the continued weakness and downward trend of chrome ore spot prices, the production cost of ferrochrome has further decreased, and the profit margin of factory delivery orders is still considerable. The production willingness continues to be strong. Some companies that started production in November will see their incremental growth mainly reflected in December. The southern region is gradually entering a dry season, and some enterprises will have certain production reduction and shutdown operations after completing orders. However, the overall increase in December will be greater than the decrease. It is expected that the total production of high carbon ferrochrome in China will continue to maintain a growth trend in December 2025, but the increase is relatively limited. In terms of price, it is expected that the short-term chromium iron market will mainly operate steadily.

The current price of scrap steel is 2060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton or 4.19% from the beginning of the month. At present, there is a lack of clear driving logic for scrap steel, and prices fluctuate repeatedly within a narrow range. On the one hand, the cost of iron coke dragging molten iron and the cost-effectiveness of scrap steel are evident. However, several steel companies in the province have reduced their production due to maintenance and production cuts, resulting in an overall decline in scrap steel consumption. In addition, the lack of upward demand for finished products has led to average market expectations for winter storage. Currently, there are no steel companies in the province that have clearly defined their winter storage plans for this year; On the other hand, macro conferences have been held one after another, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has strengthened. Moreover, most warehouses have reported difficulties in receiving goods, which provides some support for prices. Although the cost-effectiveness advantage of scrap steel has increased and the enthusiasm of steel mills to use scrap steel may increase, considering the possibility of further decline in demand for finished products and the downward pressure on steel mills' profits, it is still difficult for scrap steel prices to rebound significantly in the short term. Overall, it is expected that scrap steel will maintain a narrow range of fluctuations in December.

2. Downstream industry

In October, the production and sales of automobiles reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 2.5% and 3%, and a year-on-year increase of 12.1% and 8.8%, respectively. From January to October, the production and sales of automobiles were 27.692 million and 27.687 million respectively, an increase of 13.2% and 12.4% year-on-year. New energy vehicles have achieved excellent results in multiple fields. In October, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales to total vehicle sales exceeded 50% for the first time. From January to October, the export volume of new energy vehicles exceeded 2 million units for the first time. According to Mysteel's research, there has been a slight decline in overall orders in the automotive industry. At present, 80% of enterprises are still maintaining the previous state, and the proportion of new orders from top enterprises continues to be maintained. Currently, there is a partial accumulation of car inventory, causing some companies to focus on digesting inventory. From the year-on-year data, the number of new orders has slightly increased, and the current proportion of new orders is consistent with that of construction machinery, both of which are new energy. Traditional car companies, small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as supporting enterprises, have experienced a slight contraction this month. From the perspective of production saturation and industry mentality, the development of the industry has slightly improved, with a slight increase in the proportion of production saturation compared to other industries. However, from the perspective of the existing automobile industry, due to the end of automobile subsidy policies, there has been a significant decline in the number of end consumer car orders, which has a significant impact on overall sales. At the same time, due to factors such as recent self ignition in the new energy vehicle industry, there are signs of a short-term decline in the consumption of new energy household vehicles. Some consumers are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards new energy electric vehicles, coupled with the introduction of new policies for new energy batteries, resulting in a slight decline in short-term sales. At the same time, automobile manufacturers have raised their requirements for steel used in new energy electric vehicles to a higher level, and the steel strength used in the automotive industry has gradually increased from body steel to component steel. In the short term, the steel consumption for automobiles in December may remain the main trend.

Ⅳ Summary

The price fluctuated and weakened in November. Looking ahead to December, from a supply perspective, given the recent meager profits of bearing steel and the possibility of reduced production enthusiasm, coupled with some steel mills adjusting their production plans, it is expected that the pressure on bearing steel supply in December will ease to some extent. In terms of demand, steel mills maintain a "low inventory, on-demand procurement" strategy. Although the production and sales of the automotive industry have increased year-on-year, downstream enterprises' raw material inventories have decreased, and procurement is mainly based on demand. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. From a macro perspective, M2 supply growth aims to support key industries, but its direct boost to the bearing steel market is limited. Therefore, against the backdrop of insufficient demand release, it is expected that the market price of bearing steel will be under pressure in December.