Global manufacturing growth continues to accelerate, with PMI of 57.8% in March  

According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in March 2021 was 57.8%, witnessing an increase of 2.2 percentage as against the previous month. It remained above 50% for 9 consecutive months and increased month-on-month for 2 consecutive months. In terms of regions, the growth rate of manufacturing in all continents has accelerated compared with the previous month. The PMI of manufacturing in Asia and Africa had increased slightly, and the PMI of manufacturing in Europe and the Americas had increased significantly compared with the previous month. The overall index changes, the growth rate of the global manufacturing industry continues to accelerate compared with the previous month, and the recovery of the global economy further strengthens.

The acceleration of global manufacturing growth has driven the market's expectations for the global economy to increase. In its latest economic outlook report, the OECD predicts that the economy will grow by 5.6% for the year 2021, which is 1.4 percentage higher than the forecast in December last year. The reason for the accelerated growth of the manufacturing industry is that countries around the world continue to actively promote vaccines, which has boosted market confidence. Second, the expansionary fiscal policies and loose monetary policies of the major developed economies have stimulated the growth of manufacturing demand, which in turn drove the increase in manufacturing product prices, and provided impetus for corporate production. The third is the recovery of international trade, especially the increase in trade of goods, which has increased market liquidity, improved the supply chain environment, provided important support for the growth of the manufacturing industry, and promoted the benign interaction of the global economy. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) predicts that global trade will grow by 8.1% in 2021.

However, it should also be noted that in the current economic recovery process, there are still some uncertain factors: first is the impact of the rebound of the pandemic on the global economy. On March 22, the WHO stated that the number of new cases worldwide has risen for five consecutive weeks; second, it is the short-term impact of the blockage of the Suez Canal on global maritime logistics, which may lead to increased global trade costs, production interruptions in some companies, and rising prices; third, the increase in global inflationary pressure brought about by the loose monetary policies of various countries may affect developing countries Cause certain negative effects and bring hidden dangers to the global economic recovery.

From a regional perspective, the following characteristics are presented:

1. The growth rate of Africa's manufacturing industry has accelerated, and the PMI has risen

In March 2021, the African manufacturing PMI was 51.6%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the recovery of African manufacturing has accelerated. With the effective implementation of vaccines, African manufacturing continues to recover, and the economy is expected to grow. The full implementation of the African Free Trade Area will drive the improvement of the manufacturing industry and provide impetus for economic recovery. On March 12, the African Development Bank released the "African Economic Outlook 2021", which is expected to gradually recover in 2021 and GDP will grow by 3.4%.  

2. The recovery of the Asian manufacturing industry has strengthened, and the PMI has risen slightly

In March 2021, Asian manufacturing PMI rebounded by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month to 52.6%, stabilizing above 51% for six consecutive months, indicating that the recovery of Asian manufacturing has strengthened. Among the major countries, the recovery momentum of China's manufacturing economy has accelerated, and the overall trend of steady growth in the first quarter has been good to promote the recovery of the Asian economy. From the perspective of other countries, the Japanese manufacturing industry continued to improve, and the growth rate accelerated from the previous month, while the Korean manufacturing industry maintained growth, and the growth rate remained the same as last month.

At present, China is still the main force driving Asia’s economic recovery. The international community generally has high expectations for China’s economic growth. For example, the updated version of the Trade and Development Report 2020 released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development recently predicted that China’s economy will grow this year by 8.1%. The latest issue of the "East Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Semi-annual Report" released by the World Bank for 2021 also pointed out that China's economic growth will be stronger in 2021, which is expected to accelerate from 2.3% in 2020 to 8.1%. At the same time, after the signing of the RCEP, the economic and trade relations of Asian countries have developed rapidly, bringing many new opportunities to the Asian economy.

3. The growth rate of the European manufacturing industry has accelerated significantly, and the PMI has accelerated

In March 2021, the European manufacturing PMI increased by 3.4 percentage points from the previous month to 59.5%, reaching the highest level in the past two years, indicating that the growth rate of the European manufacturing industry has accelerated significantly and the recovery of the European economy has further strengthened. The rapid growth in demand for manufactured goods in Europe has led to a rapid rebound in European manufacturing, laying the foundation for the subsequent full recovery of the European economy. At the same time, the euro zone finance ministers stated that they would maintain large-scale fiscal expenditure measures, and the European Central Bank also said that they would accelerate the pace of debt purchases. To help accelerate the economic recovery. However, it is worth noting that the current European vaccination work is not smooth. Some vaccines have been suspended due to side effects. This has also led to tightening of epidemic prevention measures in some regions, which has a greater impact on the service industry. After the subsequent vaccine problem is resolved, the European economy It is expected to pick up further.

4. The growth rate of the manufacturing industry in the Americas has accelerated, and the PMI has risen at a high level

In March 2021, the American manufacturing PMI was 62.3%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the current growth of the American manufacturing industry is accelerating and the economic recovery momentum is increasing. The recovery of the American economy depends on the accelerated growth of the US manufacturing industry. The ISM (American Institute of Supply Management) report shows that the high PMI of the US manufacturing industry has risen to 64.7%, and both production and demand have accelerated. After the Biden administration has introduced a US$1.9 trillion economic rescue plan, it is preparing to promote a new economic stimulus plan that may reach US$3 trillion to US$4 trillion, thereby increasing household savings and accelerating the use of vaccines in the United States. , Will effectively boost consumption and accelerate the recovery of the U.S. economy. The Bureau of Economic Analysis predicts that the U.S. economy will have its strongest growth since 1984. However, the higher unemployment rate and lower labor force participation rate will still bring some instability to the US economic recovery.