I would like to frame this discussion in terms of the industry that I work with and am most familiar with. That industry is heavy industry, focusing on resources such as pulp and paper, mining, forest products and cement. This also includes the handling facilities for these resources such as ship loading facilities. In many cases, the customers are using older equipment—50 years old or more. As such, there are not many high-tech, automated features on these machines. Few of these users are in growth industries. Rather, they tend to be struggling to stay alive in declining markets and as such, there isn’t a lot of extra cash for investments in the latest technologies. These industries are also facing the departure of knowledgeable and experienced employees, their general staff levels are decreasing, and there is no one to replace them. Although they appear to be prime candidates for advanced technology, these industries lack investment in future technology. Training and knowledge Going forward, it’s unlikely there will be long-term employees who have worked on the same machines their whole careers. Rather, the workforce will be individuals who have worked on many kinds of machines. In the future, there will be specific virtual reality (VR) training and multimedia systems that simulate the jobs that need to be done. As a result, the generalist millwright will prepare for a job by watching a video or a VR routine. This will be like a video game that prepares the user for the job. Furthermore, the mechanic or electrician may wear VR goggles or glasses that will provide “heads up” instructions, guidance or parts identification as the individual is hands-on with the equipment (and wearing the VR goggles). For smaller jobs, such as a pump rebuild, the assembler’s workbench may have video screens that provide step-by-step operations that interact with the mechanic and prompt specific inputs such as measurements or other documentable data as the process proceeds. Such instructions will also keep track of time to provide input to planners for scheduling, the parts used for inventory replenishment and the documentation of critical data such as bearing clearance reduction, backlash of gears and shaft alignment data (and some of this data will come digitally from the tools used). Condition monitoring With declining staff levels, management must decide which positions are the most critical now and which are not. Often the value is more in getting the machines running again as opposed to future failure prevention. One of the mechanical positions that’s being scrutinized is in the reliability department and those jobs where the role of the millwright is taking route-based condition monitoring data. Since these employees have evolved from mechanics, they are often reassigned to “wrench time” tasks instead of data collection—or at least told to do a rebuild and postpone of their Condition Monitoring (CoMo) routes. As the personnel crunch has gotten worse, the maintenance needed to keep the wired online CoMo system functional is of secondary priority and often not done. Additionally, the removal and installation of an electronic device may require another trade, depending on the local work rules. If there is one recent update to online systems, it is the advent of wireless hardware, both in the way that the sensors can communicate wirelessly and how the data can be processed remotely. What has hampered the expansion, however, is the fear of internet piracy and a lack of understanding of the safety of the data systems. Part of the issue is that the current development of software and data storage has been cloud-based and those companies offering the latest software only offer it on the cloud (which is the standard of most software today). Maintenance practices One trend that is certainly happening and will continue to develop is the use of more complete assemblies delivered by vendors. For example, in a mine site, they will buy complete pulley assemblies instead of changing one bearing on the pulley when it fails. This also applies to pumps, motors and gearboxes. This was always happening to some degree, however the rebuild was once an internal function. Many facilities had motor shops, pump shops and pulley shops, and it is these functions that are disappearing from the heavy industry users. In many cases, the repairs are being done by either the original equipment manufacturer or the local distribution companies that used to sell the bearings and other PT components. This was probably driven by the loss of the component parts business to independent repair shops, but it can also be influenced by local suppliers having a close relationship with the user. The benefit of using outside vendors is the ability to write defined quality specifications so that lapses in the quality of the product are a commercial issue as opposed to a training, equipment or human resources issue within the facility. Of course, the leverage over a vendor is a function of supply and demand. Decision support Work has been done on software programs that collect an array of machine condition data and assist the analyst in making the decisions as to which maintenance actions need to be taken based on the accumulation of the data and the criticality of the machine. To date, such a program requires significant brainpower and time. Although such programs exist, they are expensive and customized so that the creation of a product available for the mass market has not materialized. However, with the advent of AI, there is potential for such decision support programs to be offered at reasonable pricing and ease of integration. Recently there have been news reports of such programs in the medical field in which these programs are better at diagnosis than MDs. The takeaway For some technologies, the future is only held back by lack of investment and understanding of the technology’s limitations and risks. Other technologies that have struggled to gain traction may get a boost based on the development and evolution of AI and how it can contribute to streamlining the process. In either case, the potential (and need for change exists), it’s just a matter of what the industry does about it.