Despite high inflation, RBI may keep rates low; hike only after 3-4 quarters

The low-interest rate party can go for some more time.

Despite inflation moving beyond its comfort zone for two consecutive months, the Reserve Bank of India is unlikely to hike rates, according to experts.

The Monetary Policy Committee is likely to keep the repo rate unchanged and continue with its accommodative policy stance to help the ongoing economic recovery.

The MPC is likely to stay focused on growth since the economy is opening up gradually

According to analysts, while the Covid caseload has decreased the trajectory of economic variables has not changed significantly for RBI to change its stance.

Inflation

RBI’s commentary on inflation trajectory would be keenly watched as consumers are feeling the second-order impact with manufacturers passing on commodity price increases. It may also clarify on unwinding excess cash from the system after the US Fed hinted at stopping easy money later this year.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta has said that these numbers are transitory in nature, and the headline number is expected to come below 6 per cent.

The retail inflation as measured by the consumer price index stayed over the RBI's target upper band limit of 6% for the second month in a row. The gauge printed 6.26% in June versus 6.30% in May.

The global crude oil prices soared to nearly $75 per barrel last week fanning fear of imported inflation to India, an anchor for global crude consumptions.

Bond yields

The central bank may raise its inflation forecast and announce some measures to stop rising yields during the upcoming policy review.

The benchmark bond yield rose to as much as 6.23% on July 23, the highest since March 18. The bond price, which moves in the opposite direction of yield, has since pared some of its losses after the government’s tax collections showed up.