XCC Invests 1 Billion on Humanoid Robots

XCC.ZXZ recently attracted widespread market attention due to its plan to raise 1 billion yuan to invest in the "Humanoid Intelligent Robot and Automotive Intelligent Driving Core Components Project". On the surface, this is a transformation move by a traditional precision manufacturing company to enter the two hot tracks of humanoid robots and intelligent driving; however, a deeper analysis of its logic chain reveals that this leap, packaged as "technological synergy and following the trend", actually hides multiple concerns.

Traditional Business Under Pressure, Transformation Imminent

As a supplier of bearings and automotive thermal management components, XCC.ZXZ has long served international giants such as Schaeffler and SKF, with main business revenue reaching 3.206 billion yuan in 2024. However, its growth momentum has shown signs of fatigue: in 2023, the demand for wind power bearings plummeted (the national wind turbine bidding volume declined by 29% year-on-year), resulting in a slight decline in revenue; although growth resumed in 2024, the gross profit margin slightly decreased from 15.84% to 15.72%, highlighting the continued narrowing of profit margins in the traditional track. Against this backdrop, the company urgently needs to find a second growth curve.

New Track Layout: Targeting Lead Screws and Specialized Bearings

This fundraising project focuses on three major products: planetary roller screws for humanoid robots, electronic control screws for intelligent vehicles, and specialized bearings for robots. Among them, planetary roller screws, due to their high technological barriers and long-term reliance on imports, are considered a key breakthrough for domestic substitution. The company claims its production capacity can cover 70,000 humanoid robots and 1 million intelligent vehicles, citing industry forecasts—global sales of humanoid robots will exceed 2 million units by 2030, and the penetration rate of intelligent vehicles in China will be nearly 100%—to support its market potential.

Furthermore, XCC.ZXZ emphasizes its advantages in process synergy: over 20 years of precision manufacturing experience, 234 patents, a 363-person R&D team, and progress with some customers—such as sending samples to ByteDance-affiliated robot companies and being designated as a supplier by Changan's Chenzhi Technology (for 510,000/300,000 vehicle models annually), attempting to build a closed loop of "technology-customer-production capacity."

Risks Emerge: Optimistic Assumptions Cannot Mask Real-World Challenges

However, a clear crack exists behind this grand narrative:

The market is still in its early stages, and production capacity may be difficult to absorb.

The company's planned production capacity of 70,000 robot ball screws is highly dependent on an industry that has not yet reached scale. Currently, humanoid robots are still in the prototype verification stage, with high costs, limited application scenarios, and questionable reliability. The company also admits: "The downstream market is in the early stages of explosive growth, and the amount of orders on hand is small, making it of little reference value." If commercialization progresses slower than expected, the massive production line may remain idle for a long time.

Benefit Calculations Are Overly Idealistic

The project is expected to have a gross profit margin of 31.08% and an after-tax IRR of 12.27%, but this is contingent on a 60% capacity utilization rate in the fourth year and full production capacity in the sixth year. Considering the long customer certification cycle, the uncertainty of yield rate ramp-up, and the potential risk of price wars, this model appears overly optimistic. More importantly, the 721 million yuan investment in equipment will bring heavy depreciation pressure; if revenue falls short of expectations, profits could be easily eroded.

Financing Scale Relies on High-Growth Assumptions

The company estimates a funding gap of 1.411 billion yuan over the next three years, based on which it considers a 1 billion yuan private placement "reasonable." However, this conclusion is based on an average annual revenue growth rate of 16.8% and stable operating cash flow. If traditional business fluctuates or new business growth falls short of expectations, the entire financial model may become unbalanced.

Conclusion: A compelling story, but implementation is key

XCC.ZXZ's transformation is not without foundation; its technological accumulation and customer engagement have indeed progressed. However, betting the company's future on two nascent, highly volatile sectors, especially a heavy one-sided investment in the humanoid robot market, is undoubtedly a high-risk gamble. The capital market may buy into the "futuristic" vision, but ultimately, a company must speak through its actual performance.

Will this 1 billion yuan gamble result in a magnificent transformation or blindly chasing trends? The answer lies not in the PowerPoint presentation, but in the real feedback from the factory workshops, customer production lines, and market terminals. Time will ultimately reveal the outcome.